Australia Covid-19 : Economical Analysis, Sectorial Impact, and Embracing the 'New Normal'

Australia COVID-19 is unique in that it is a supply, demand and market shock. The Australian economy was already in a precarious place in 2019; risk of global recession in 2020 is extremely high as Australia shutdown economic activity to limit the spread of COVID-19. As production is curtailed around the world, many firms will not have necessary inputs. A severe demand shock is underway across discretionary spend categories.

The increasing widespread of Australia COVID-19 has transformed the world’s hustle into varying degrees of uncertainty. One of the few things that seem fairly certain is that the current downturn is fundamentally different from recessions Australia have seen in the past. This is not just another turn of the business cycle, but a shakeup of the Australia economic order. While countries and companies continue to comprehend the scale of this pandemic, it is certainly undeniable that Australia is staring at more permanent, structural changes to the way we live, work and play.

• The global impact of China’s slowdown was felt around the world;

• The virus outbreak has disrupted Australian manufacturing supply chains and sharply curtailed energy and commodity demand;

• Previously a manufacturing-only recession has now spread to the services sector as well;

• We anticipate both services and manufacturing to reflect growing Australian economic stress as social distancing causes a sharp decline in demand;

The collective Australian experience of going through this common crisis will lead to questioning of fundamental assumptions and priorities which will be both a challenge and an Australian opportunities.

We have summarized ways in which the business landscape will shift the Australia around. Leveraging these will certainly help navigate the economically and socially viable path to the next normal:

• The shift towards Australian Localization;

• Australian ‘Digital’ adoption;

• Move towards variable cost models;

• Building sensing and control tower capabilities;

• Australian Supply chain resilience is key;

• Building agility;

In sum, this crisis is a story with an uncertain ending. However, what is clear is COVID-19 has introduced new challenges to the Australian business environment which call for a measured, practical and informed approach from political and business leaders. We also need to realise that COVID-19 is likely to lead to a new normal – being aware of and preparing for these shifts will help businesses and economies navigate in the post COVID-19 Australia.