Trading: An Inside Look. Module 15: Market Maker Models
1. Terminology.
2. Market Maker Models. Logic.
3. MMSM.
4. MMBM.
5. SMR.
6. Model Identification.
7. STDIV in MMXM (SMR).
8. STDIV in Order Flow.
9. Conclusions.
1. Terminology
• Market Maker Buy / Sell Models (MMBM / MMSM) — graphical models of the process of buying or selling by large participants and (or) their algorithms using Order Flow movement.
• MMSM — a model during which a large participant raises the price of an asset to key levels (BSL/POI), upon reaching which he takes a short position or distributes (fixes) a position.
• MMBM — a model during which a large participant lowers the price of an asset. This model has a “mirror” logic of the MMSM model.
• Smart Money Reversal (SMR) — a model for entering a position with a high mathematical expectation. It is formed as a reversal maximum or minimum during the price reaction to the zone of interest of the older timeframe in the form of liquidity or the POI zone. It is characterized by a reversal through Shift with a subsequent test of the FVG zone formed inside STB/BTS.
• Standard Deviation Projection (STDIV) — projections on the chart of certain price ranges (MMXM (SMR), STB/BTS).
2. Market Maker Models. Logic
Market Maker Buy / Sell Models (MMBM / MMSM) — graphical models of the process of buying or selling by large participants and (or) their algorithms using Order Flow movement.
The logic of these models is to build a position by a large participant and (or) an algorithm within the consolidation to deliver the price to certain liquidity pools (BSL/SSL) or zones of interest (POI) using Order Flow movement.
Then the position is distributed, a reversal is formed, and the price is directed to the initial consolidation. Using this logic, large participants and (or) algorithms form a markup or markdown of an asset to build or fix their positions. These movements occur constantly in the market and are the basic logic of price manipulation.
In order to understand the essence of these models in more detail, you should return to the material studied, in particular to the logic of the operation of blocks and liquidity.
So, we know that a large participant needs reverse orders to implement his volume, that is, liquidity, where at the moment of removal the process of “exchange of orders” takes place, while the so-called “V-shaped” buyback is formed, and on the candlestick chart we see Order Block (pattern “absorption”).
However, in addition to this, we also know that the market is fractal, the price repeats identical actions and patterns at different time intervals (timeframes).
So, we have every right to say that the process of buying or selling by a large participant may look different on different timeframes. On the older timeframe, such manipulation will look like an Order Block and consist of 2 candles, if we go down to the timeframe below, we can see the STB/BTS model, which will already consist of 10 candles. And if we go down even lower, we will see the Market Maker Buy/Sell Model, which can consist of 100 candles.
The logic of the action of such tools as OB, STB/BTS, MMBM/MMSM is identical, all these models display the zone of purchases or sales of large market participants, the difference between these models is only in time (number of candles).
In simple words, we can say that OB on the daily timeframe = STB on the H4 timeframe = MMBM on the M5 timeframe.
Schematic example of the fractality of models:
If each of these tools denotes the same price action (manipulation with liquidity or POI), then why separate them? Why can’t you use only, for example, Order Block?
The answer to this question is quite simple. The concept of “smart money”, which we are studying with you, is based primarily on accuracy. Accuracy in understanding what is happening on the chart on each of the timeframes, and the ability to form logical, most probable scenarios for the further behavior of the price based on this.
For example, when we see an emerging MMBM on a younger timeframe, you will understand that an OB is most likely forming on an older timeframe, and if an OB is forming on an older timeframe, then the price will most likely continue to move in an upward direction, but you will work with the MMBM model on a younger timeframe, because your task is to achieve the best result in the shortest possible time.
Or, in another situation, it will be difficult for you to determine the validity of the OB, you will doubt whether you have identified it correctly and whether it is worth using it. Here, the fractality of the price will also help you, and by switching to younger timeframes, you will find MMBM, which will tell you what is happening at the moment and whether the older OB is actually valid.
There can be many such situations, and we cannot consider each of them, because the situations are unique, but we will teach you to understand the logic, not template trading. Let’s move on to considering these models closer.
3. MMSM
Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM)
MMSM is a model during which a large participant raises the price of an asset to key levels (BSL/POI), upon reaching which he takes a short position or distributes (fixes) a position.
It all starts with consolidation, which in this theory is called the original consolidation (Original Consolidation). Within this consolidation, a large participant builds a long position, launching an upward price movement (upward OF).
Within the upward OF, a large participant can continue to manipulate liquidity, gaining the required volume. In this theory, these processes are usually called reaccumulation (Reaccumulation or Reacc), thereby gradually delivering the price to the older large liquidity (BSL) or the zone of interest (POI).
Why is this being done? We recall that the market is built on supply and demand. A large participant cannot realize his entire volume at one price, because someone has to buy it. The lack of liquidity forces a large participant to split the position into small parts, this is mainly done using algorithms. Therefore, Order Flow is called “algorithmic” price delivery.
Thus, the price is delivered to a certain liquidity pool or POI in the form of inefficiencies and blocks, because there is enough liquidity there to distribute the current position, that is, to fix profits and possibly build a new position already in short. This process is called Smart Money Reversal (SMR) or simply Reversal.
During SMR, a large participant launches a reverse movement, that is, the Order Flow changes from upward to downward. Next, the same processes occur as during reaccumulations (Reacc), but during a downward movement they will be called redistribution (Redistribution or Redistr). Thus, the price is delivered back to the original consolidation, where a sufficient amount of liquidity has already accumulated for distribution and the start of a new cycle. Removing liquidity from the original consolidation is the final movement of the MMSM model.
Example of Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM) on BTCUSDT charts:
If you look at the chart above, you can see the price delivery from point A to point B, that is, from liquidity to liquidity, where we simply change the OF movement. If we simplify this model, then we get:
1. Upward OF to BSL.
2. SMR reversal.
3. Downward OF to SSL (original consolidation).
4. MMBM
MMBM is a model during which a large participant lowers the price of an asset. This model has a “mirror” logic of the MMSM model.
It all starts with the original consolidation (Original Consolidation). Within the consolidation, a large participant builds a short position by launching Order Flow.
During the downward OF, a large participant gains the volume he needs by working with liquidity (redistribution), thereby gradually delivering the price to the older large liquidity (SSL) or the zone of interest (POI).
As soon as the price reaches the zone of the desired liquidity or the zone of interest (POI), a Smart Money Reversal (SMR) occurs, where the price forms a reversal, thus the Order Flow changes from downward to upward.
The price is delivered back to the original consolidation, where a sufficient amount of liquidity has already accumulated for distribution and the start of a new cycle. Removing liquidity from the original consolidation is the final movement of the MMBM model.
Example of Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM):
Note. The number of reaccumulations and redistributions can be completely different. Depending on the market situation, the distance between the original consolidation and the zones of interest, the number can vary from one to several. They can be of different sizes and shapes. Combine this logic with other learned tools for a better understanding of what is happening in the market.
5. SMR
Smart Money Reversal (SMR) is a high mathematical expectation entry model. It is formed as a reversal maximum or minimum during the price reaction to the zone of interest of the older timeframe in the form of liquidity or the POI zone. It is characterized by a reversal through Shift followed by a test of the FVG zone formed inside STB/BTS.
It can be used in any context of manipulation with liquidity (BSL/SSL) or a zone of interest (POI), but it is most often used as a reversal within the MMBM/MMSM models.
Entry into the position is carried out when the price returns to FVG, after a change in delivery priority (SHIFT). Stop loss is set beyond the maximum/minimum of the formed movement. The best entry option would be the area of intersection of FVG with Breaker.
This model is similar to the classic Quasimodo (QM) model.
6. Model Identification
The price does not always form perfect models. To make it easier to identify buy/sell models, you need to understand the price context of the older timeframe and potential liquidity/POI zones.
Next, on the younger timeframe, you need to find the original consolidation and work from it. You can use any timeframe and perspective links learned earlier. Most of the time you will be identifying MMBM/MMSM models roughly, as each situation on the chart is special. To do this, you should train your vision of the market through a constant backtesting process.
Let’s get acquainted with several scenarios for the formation of MMBM/MMSM models. Schematic examples are given for a downward structural movement or OF. Examples for upward movement will be mirrored.
Removing internal liquidity (internal) or testing POI during a correction:
This scenario involves the formation of the original consolidation at the end of the impulse, followed by delivery to the inside of the PD matrix range, where an SMR will be formed on the removal of liquidity or the POI test, which signals the end of the correction and the continuation of the structure. The trader’s task is to wait for the formation of SMR and enter a position with the aim of fixing on the removal of the original consolidation or on problem areas (FTA).
Removing external liquidity (External) and returning to the range:
This scenario can occur both during the structural movement of the price and in the context of a sideways movement. The formation of the original consolidation occurs within the range, often close to the middle of the PD matrix or sideways, then the price is delivered to one of the external liquidity (external). During the removal of liquidity, SMR is formed and the price returns to the range. In the case of a sideways movement, SMR is formed on deviations. The trader’s task is to wait for the formation of SMR and enter a position with the aim of fixing on the removal of the original consolidation or on problem areas (FTA).
7. STDIV in MMXM (SMR)
From the previously studied material, we know that the key catalyst for price expansion in MMXM is one of the elements of Price Action, which can pour volume into the market: (BSL/SSL / POI) and, as a result, form a reversal pattern — SMR (Smart Money Reversal).
Once you have identified the reversal formation, it is important to determine the probable targets, STDIV projections will help us with this.
Standard Deviation Projection (STDIV) — projections on the chart of certain price ranges (MMXM (SMR), STB/BTS).
STDIV projections are an additional tool that allows you to determine the main price ranges where the price may stop or form a correction. It is necessary to combine projections with zones of interest (POI), liquidity, Order Flow, PO3 concepts, etc. for a more accurate analysis.
These projections will help you correctly determine the position fixing zones and correctly set take profits.
To do this, you need to throw a projection onto the BTS/STB [SMR] manipulation, with the grid values that will be indicated below.
0 / 0.5 / 1 / -1 / -2 / -2.5 / -4
As a rule, the STDIV 1 projection will provide counter volume and form a rollback to the manipulation (SMR), where your task will be to consider entering a position. A more aggressive approach would be to open a position from the SMR manipulation with a stop beyond the entire zone, in the case of SMR formation on long-term and medium-term periods (1D, 4H, 1H), a more conservative approach would be to use the SMR manipulation as a new zone of interest and wait for its validation — (shift), on a short-term period (5–15m).
The values of STDIV-2 and STDIV-2.5 will usually correspond to the liquidity level of the original consolidation, which acts as a safe target for fixing your positions.
The second option for using the values of STDIV-2 and STDIV-2.5 is to select or search for new positions after correction.
If, upon reaching STDIV-2 and STDIV-2.5, the original consolidation is not removed (as a safe and possible target), then these values will act as support/resistance levels, and the price will be adjusted from them.
At the time of correction, your task will be in sync with additional tools: [PDA, POI, LIQ] to consider opening positions (these corrective movements will be designated as — Redist), the target will also be OC.
You can also fix part of the positions that were opened earlier from SMR at these values.
The STDIV-4 value most often completely stops the price movement. In rare cases, the STDIV-4 projection intersects with the original consolidation of the MMXM model, this zone is highly likely to stop the Order Flow. In this case, you need to fix the position.
8. STDIV in Order Flow
STDIV projections can be used during the formation of Order Flow. To do this, you need to stretch the Fibonacci grid with the values below on the first reversal movement of BTS / STB, from the maximum or minimum to Shift.
0 / 0.5 / 1 / -1 / -2 / -2.5 / -4
Most often, when reaching STDIV -1, the price will give a rollback, forming a reversal entry model (QM), where it will be necessary to consider entering a position, for example, the same BTS zone.
Between the values of STDIV-2 and STDIV-2.5, the price will often stop, giving a full-fledged correction or perhaps even a reversal. There are exceptions when the price will not receive a reaction to these price levels, but on the contrary, will accelerate. At some points, these values can be levels of fixing our position for us, especially if this zone intersects with a liquidity pool or a problem zone (FTA).
The STDIV-4 value will most often completely stop and form a price reversal. Usually this level acts as a target for closing a position if there are no potential targets in the form of liquidity or problem zones (FTA). If the STDIV-4 projection intersects with key liquidity pools, for example, the original consolidation of the MMXM model, this zone is highly likely to stop the Order Flow. In this case, you need to accurately fix the position.
In these graphical examples, we see a reversal formation through Shift with the formation of a BTS movement, where we enter a position. Next, we stretch the Fibonacci grid over the BTS movement so that the projections look towards the reversal along the Order Flow movement. First, the price stops near the STDIV -1 value, forming a rollback and an entry point, but this may not be the case (Example 2). Further, the price moves to STDIV-2, where we see a rollback or correction. As a result, the price reaches the main target in the form of SSL, at the level of STDIV -4, where we need to completely fix the position.
9. Conclusions
The logic of buy/sell models is to build a position by a large participant and (or) an algorithm within the consolidation to deliver the price to certain liquidity pools (BSL/SSL) or zones of interest (POI) using Order Flow movement.
The concept of “smart money”, which we are studying with you, is based on accuracy. Accuracy in understanding what exactly is happening on the chart on each of the timeframes, and the ability to create logical, most probable price movement scenarios based on this.
This is one of the reasons why these models were developed, because they allow you to most accurately understand the following price actions, give a clear entry and exit point from the position.
Entry into a position is most often carried out in the SMR zone. The name “SMR” denotes both the reversal zone within the MMBM/MMSM models and the entry model, while fixing most often occurs when the price reaches the original consolidation.
This is the simplest and most understandable logic of price movement of any asset: cryptocurrency, currency pair or stock index. The model is applied on all timeframes, as it reflects the very essence of the movement of markets from liquidity zones.
It is very important to understand the very logic of the formation of models, and not a schematic template, because in real trading, situations will differ from each other, while the model can appear both on the same perspective on which we are considering the PD matrix, and on a younger perspective. Combine all the learned analysis tools for the best result.
It is important to understand that STDIV projections are an additional tool that allows you to determine the main price ranges where the price may stop or form a correction. It is necessary to combine projections with zones of interest (POI), liquidity, Order Flow, PO3 concepts, etc. for a more accurate analysis. These projections will help you correctly determine the position fixing zones and correctly set take profits.