1.Sberbank (#SBER) market forecast with a local overview of the results of graphical technical analysis of market dynamics from the point of view of Glenn Neely's methodological concept on the hypothysis of Elliott wave with a systematic approach to research.

Extremes: max 388.11 from 11.10.2021 - min 89.59 from 14.02.2022

2. Introduction

After carrying out: data transformation, plotting graphs, preliminary analysis, further analytical constructions, integration and other analytical procedures on the wave concept, we received the following picture presented on the graphs.

📚List of references:

•Glenn Neely Mastery of Elliott Wave Analysis

•G.I. Ruzavin Methodology of Scientific Cognition

•G.I. Ruzavin Logic and Argumentation

Chart scale: 1 bar - 2 weeks.

As you can see, the chart (1 bar-2 weeks) shows a downward corrective movement (388.11-89.59), which is a non-standard type of wave consisting of two phases of correction. The first phase or triple, which began at 388.11 and presumably ended at 300.10, is a monowave, followed by x-wave of the same monowave level of complexity as the first triple. As we can see, the second phase or triple is a conventional polywave, in which all the segments of the wave A, B and C are monowaves.

It is shown that this second triple represents a standard type of correction in the form of a zigzag (A-B-C), the end of which is the completion of wave-C, and it falls at the local minimum level of 89.59.

Since the measurement of price projections (lengths) of waves A and C of this zigzag shows that wave-C is longer than 161.8% of the wavelength is A, insofar as this zigzag must be qualified as elongated (all the results of the measurements are shown on the graph).

Chart period: 1 bar - 1 week.

Considering the same non-standard downward movement (↓388.11 - 89.59), but on the next smaller or faster chart (1 bar - 1 week) we see that the first three (↓388.11 - 300.10) also remains monowave as on the previous larger or slower chart (1 bar - 2 weeks).

This first monowave triple is followed by the X-wave ↑, which, just like on the big chart (1 bar – 2 weeks), here on the chart (1 bar – 1 week) remains monowave.

However, the second three has become more segmented here. If on the previous chart (1 bar - 2 weeks) our elongated zigzag (A-B-C) was a regular polywave, then here it turned into a complex polywave, in which its corrective phase (wave -B) segments to a simple or ordinary polywave.

As you can see, wave - B is a non-standard correction in the form of a double triple, in which the X-wave is longer than 161.8% of the length of the previous corrective wave.(The results of the measurements are visible on the graph)

It is known that the length of the pulse wave following the double

triple (3-X-3) should be at least 161.8% of the length of the previous pulse wave.

We see that our C-wave is more than 261.8% of the length of the previous pulsed A-wave.

Thus, our B-wave perfectly justifies the excessive elongation of the C-wave.

Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.

We consider the same downward movement (↓388.11-89.59) in the form of a corrective, non-standard wave consisting of two triples or phases.

On the next, smaller chart (1 bar - 3 days), we see that the first three (388.11-300.10), which was monowave on the previous two charts, segments into a complex half here.

This triple is a zigzag in which the B-wave segments into a simple half A-B-C, similar to the flat Elliott figure.

Comparison of the wavelengths A and C of the zigzag (the results of the measurements are shown on the graph) shows that the -C wave failed to overcome 161.8% of the pulse A-wave length. Therefore, our zigzag must be qualified as simple or normal, and not as elongated.

So, the first three (388.11-300.10) of the total downward movement (388.11-89.59) is identified as a standard figure in the form of a regular zigzag.

Examining the B-wave in this zigzag, we see that it segments into a simple half A-B-C, in which the ↓ B-wave almost reached 161.8% of the A-wave length. At the same time, the ↑ C-wave rolled back the ↓ B-wave by only 38.2%, eventually suffering a severe failure. Moreover, the C-wave itself rolled back in a time not exceeding the period of its formation. The measurements show that less than 50% of this period.

Therefore, this half of A-B-C must be qualified as an incorrect failed flat figure that makes up the zigzag B-wave.

It is known that an incorrect failed plane wave should be followed by a wave whose length will be at least 161.8% of the length of the previous pulse wave.

But in our A-B-C zigzag, the -C wavelength did not reach 161.8% of the-A wavelength. That is, the market could not reach the level set by wave-C to the level set by wave-B.

However, as you can see on the chart, at the end of the X-wave, the market still reached the set level.

The X-wave was followed by the second three, which, as indicated above, we have already qualified as an elongated zigzag.

Thus, all the studied downward corrective non-standard market movement (388.11-89.59), consisting of two phases or triples, must be qualified as a double zigzag.

Schedule period: 1 bar-2 weeks, 1 bar-1 week, 1 bar-3 days.

So, the studied movement (388.11-89.59) is identified as a double zigzag.

What to expect from the market next? Will there be a third phase of correction or a triple after two already existing triples, each of which, as already established, is a zigzag? Or will the market limit itself to these two threes and not form the third phase of correction? A very exciting question.

For the appearance of the third three, the market needs to form an x-wave behind the triple three.

Let's explore the graphs. We see that from the completion point of the second three in form of a zigzag, the end of which is at the level of 89.59, some kind of upward movement (sunrise) develops.

This sunrise reached its maximum at the 169.90 from 04.04.2022. After that, a very long correction of the sunrise began, the duration of which continues, as we see, until now. At the same time, the market has not set a new minimum (below 89.59). Sunrise remains relevant.

Comparing the duration (not the price length, but the duration by time) of the sunrise with the duration of the formation period of the second zigzag, the end of which is 89.59, we get that the duration of the sunrise is more than one and a half times the duration of the zigzag.

It is known that the duration of the x-wave is always less than the duration of the triple it follows.

The duration of our sunrise is longer than the duration of the zigzag it follows.

Hence we conclude that our sunrise is not an x-wave.

Since the market has not formed an x-wave after the second three, this means that there will be no third phase of correction or three. So we have received a reasonable answer to a very exciting question.

Since it is established that the market will not form the third phase of correction, our double zigzag (388.11-89.59) is a completed figure. Therefore, the market will not form a new local minimum. That is, it will not fall below the level of 89.59. Here is our forecast. The downward movement on Sberbank (#SBER) is completed.

It is known that the market moves exclusively in two directions: down or up. Since it is established that the market has completed the downward movement, so far it will move only in the upward direction.

So, it has been established that the Sberbank market (#SBER) continues to move in an upward direction from its local minimum of 89.59.

What is the maximum price level it will reach? We don't have an answer to this question and we don't know how to find it. Then at least find out to what minimum level the market will rise? But this question can be answered.

It is known that all completed corrective figures, with the exception of certain ones, always roll back at least 61.8% of their length.

Our double zigzag is complete and not an exception. Consequently, it will roll back at least 61.8 of its length.

Having carried out the corresponding measurements, we get the target price - 274.30.

Therefore, our forecast is as follows: in its ascent from the local minimum of 89.59, the Sberbank market will reach the price level of 274.30.

9. Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.

So, according to the forecast put forward, the Sberbank market (#SBER) has completed its downward movement at the price level of 89.59, from which it will continue to move in the upward direction. In its ascent from the local minimum of 89.59, the market will reach the price level of 274.30 in the future.
Can we develop in detail a plan for the probable course of the future development of the price movement by drawing on the graph with dotted lines the types of Elliott wave figures in their specific form with the corresponding markings markings, as many so-called wave analysts do?
The answer is unequivocally that no.
We cannot draw waves that will form in the future.

In other words, we cannot tell the market what specific waves it will continue its ascent to the intended goal, the achievement of which relates to a future event.
To think otherwise would be to deceive ourselves. Because even if we imagine, determine, for example, that the market will move in an impulse wave, it is impossible to predict exactly which of the three types of momentum will be formed by the market. An impulse with a stretched 1st, 3rd or 5th wave?
This is also true for corrections.
For example, if we expect a correction, it is impossible to predict exactly what it will be, a standard or non-standard wave. If, let's assume that it will be standard, then what kind of wave. Zigzag, flat or triangle, and in which of their many variations will this correction be? Still remains unknown.
And if we assume a non-standard correction, then similarly to the above, we get the same set of indeterminate. Simply put, there are too many unknowns. That is why, at least, those graphs that depict color drawings of future Elliott wave figures with appropriate markings cause very serious doubts.
Unlike those who draw similar things on graphs, we know for sure, at least, what we do not know and it is not even possible to find out.
Therefore, we will leave the unknown to science fiction writers, and we ourselves will rely on the known, definite and established.
We use the above to develop an approximate plan for the most likely course of the future development of the market movement with an accurate specification of quantitative parameters for each stage of the forecasting process under consideration.

9.1 Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.

So, it is determined that the market has completed a downward movement at the level of 89.59 from 23.02.22 and will continue to move upward from it. Moving in an upward direction, the market reached its maximum at the level of 169.90 from 04.04.22.
We have a local minimum (89.59) and maximum (169.90). To continue the upward movement, the market needs to reach the level of 169.90 and cross it, thereby setting a new local maximum, which will be above the level of 169.90.
Thus, at the first stage of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the proposed forecast with a target level of 274.30, the market needs to form a new local maximum that will be above the level of 169.90.
Here is our forecast (in the generally accepted sense, i.e. for a wide audience) for Sberbank (#SBER): the market will reach and cross the price level of 169.90 in the future.

9.2 Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.

After passing the above, the first stage, the market should continue to develop its upward movement (it is clear that with appropriate corrections).
How do I find out what the next price level the market should reach in the future?
As we have already described in detail above, in resolving such issues, it is necessary to rely on the known.

Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.

So, it is known that if the A-B-C zigzag in any of its varieties is completed, then the next market movement should, at least, reach the level of 61.8% (Fibonacci) of the pulse C-wave length of this zigzag and, as a rule, cross the specified level.
It is established that in our completed non-standard figure (↓388.11-89.59) consisting of two phases of corrections, the second phase or triple is an elongated zigzag A-B-C.
The named zigzag A-B-C is found to be completed.
Therefore, the next market movement in the future should, at least, reach the level of 61.8% of the C-wave length (281.00 from 16.02.22 - 89.59 from 24.02.22) of this A-B-C zigzag.

Having carried out the corresponding measurement, we determine the specified level of 61.8% of the C-wave (281.00-89.59), which in price terms gives such a value as 208.31.
Here is our forecast (as the word forecast is understood by the widest audience, i.e. the majority) for SBER (#SBER): the market in the future ↑will reach and cross the price level 208.31.
So, at the second stage of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the previously put forward forecast with a target level of 274.30, the market needs to reach and cross the target level of 208.31 in the future.

9.3 Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.

Finally, at the third and final stage of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the proposed forecast with a target level of 274.30, the market needs to reach and cross this level in the future.
That is, the fact that the market has reached the level of 274.30 will indicate the complete completion of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the proposed forecast with the target level of 274.30, as well as the fulfillment of our forecast by 100%.
We remind you that the justification itself and the premises from which the conclusion is derived in the form of a forecast with a target level of 274.30 are detailed at the top, starting from the very first post, in the review of the results of the technical analysis.
Also, all the measurement results obtained during the analysis and indicated in the content of the posts are clearly shown on the graphs.

9.4. Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.

So, according to the proposed forecast with a target level of 274.30, a plan has been developed for the most likely course of the future development of the market movement, with justification and precise specification of quantitative parameters for each stage of the forecasting process under consideration.
A short plan (in a collapsed form) of the forecast with a target level of 274.30:
1. At the first stage, the market needs to form a new local maximum. This is a target level that will be higher (at least by 1 tick) > 169.90.
2. At the second stage, the market needs to roll back ↑ by 61.8% (F) the C-wave ↓ (281.00-89.59) of the second zigzag. This is the target level of 208.31.
3. At the third and final stage, the market needs to roll back the entire double zigzag by 61.8% (F) (388.11-89.59). This is the target level of 274.30.