How to "Prediction Markets"
- Mechanisms of the markets ⚙️
- Top-tier of existing crypto prediction markets 📊
- Analysis of existing solutions 🔍
⚠️ Disclaimer: Remember, we don't offer financial advice. All info and projects mentioned are publicly accessible. Always Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
→ Mechanisms of the markets ⚙️
A prediction market is a form of gambling where the outcomes being bet on are real events or the probability of an event occurring. The reason they have attracted so much attention is that they tend to be quite accurate. In blockchain-based prediction markets, participants place bets in the form of contracts on events.
Forecasts are usually based on a binary event, such as a coin toss, where the outcome can only be A or B, True or False.
Each outcome has a certain token price, for example, from $0.10 to $0.99. Each market has an expiration date, and upon expiration, holders of the winning position will receive a payout of $1, while losers will not receive anything. After purchasing a token, it does not need to be held until expiration; it can be traded continuously.
Thus, it is a zero-sum game, and the higher the price of A, the lower the price of B.
In this case, the counterparty is the trader who bet on the opposite result. Token prices for a given outcome increase as they become more popular. The higher the demand and the probability of the event, the higher the token price.
→ Why Are Forecasts Popular? 🎯
People love to bet on anything. And if there is an external reason that can attract a large number of interested parties, a snowball effect of hype and commotion arises. More specifically:
・Diverse Betting Opportunities
・Direct Connection with Reality
→ Why DEX Platforms Are Better for Prediction Markets 🕹️
→ The Most Popular Prediction Markets Today 💰
The goal of the research was to study the prediction markets available today, separating them from classic betting and gambling where possible.
Below is a table for independent study:
https://0y.notion.site/Table-of-prediction-markets-118a0125d60f8084a832c66549d2aaa0?pvs=25
*To determine the popularity of the market, metrics and tiers were created accordingly.
Unconditional leaders with the most extensive data, investments (except for Predict.fun), and follower confidence.
The largest prediction market in the world today, launched in 2020 with the support of many industry heavyweights. Polymarket has the highest parameters in the table in everything except the number of networks and tokens that can be used for trading.
Since 2023, it is often mentioned in the context of the U.S. presidential elections, even appearing on CNN, one of the most popular news services globally. It has the largest trading volumes at $34.6 million per day and the number of active traders per day—12,372 people.
How about betting on a Polymarket airdrop on Polymarket? Judging by newly emerging "rumors," the probability is increasing.
A prediction market created on @blast. There is no official information about fundraising yet, but the Blast team is actively promoting the platform.
Apart from the chain, it differs from Polymarket in lower fees, the ability to earn points and get Gold from Blast.
You can bet on @fantasy_top_ tournaments. Trading volumes are $1.33 million per day with 159 active traders per day. Quite decent for a project that has been in open beta for less than a month.
A DEX on Solana that has also entered the prediction market. Recently, a BET (Bullish on Everything) section appeared for those wishing to bet on favorite events or create their own.
The protocol has received $53.3 million in investments, with the last round of $25 million closed on September 19, 2024. Trading volumes are $852,000 per day.
By trading, you can earn FUEL, which are then converted into the platform's tokens $DRIFT. A unique feature is the ability to hold more than 30 platform assets as collateral.
Confident middle-tier projects and artifacts of the pioneers.
A minimalist platform on @base designed to help users choose the most interesting market or create their own. The platform creates a digital reputation for traders by publishing the results of each vote in the form of wallet addresses and outcomes.
On September 16, Limitless received $3 million in investments. Trading volumes are $261,000 per day with 24 active traders per day. For other projects, these data were not available from open sources.
One of the first markets that made a technological breakthrough on Ethereum in 2015, received $10 million in investments, and now is not functioning. Interestingly, based on all indicators, Augur firmly stands in Tier 2, and if you exclude search queries, even in Tier 1. Many still include it in the list of top prediction markets, such as Alchemy.
Also, the project has an active token $REP with a daily volume of $66,664.
An analog of Polymarket on @solana. Received $3.5 million in investments in 2022 and does not yet have its own token. Trading volumes are unknown.
Operates on Ethereum Mainnet, Polygon, Moonbeam, and Moonriver, but most activity is on Polygon.
Users can directly place bets using the stablecoin $USDT to interact with smart contracts. Raised $715,000 in an IDO. There are many categories on the platform; in practice, forecasts on cryptocurrency prices are functioning.
Operates on Base, allowing users to "speculate on everything from crypto to culture." There is also a mobile application for those who prefer trading from their phones. The platform has its own token $SPEC for trading.
Operates on @Polkadot and has received $12.13 million in investments. For trading, tokens $ZTG and $DOT are used. Despite substantial investments, the market currently shows rather mediocre results.
A multichain market operating with AI assistance, with $500,000 in investments, numerous networks for trading, and its own token. However, the token does not have practical use on the platform; trading is conducted in $USDC.
Some of them may fade away, but here you can find under-the-radar projects if you enjoy panning for gold in a pile of sand.
They already have a project with a prediction market and are now creating a second one that will work in combination with AI.
An analog of Polymarket on BTC, or more precisely, Rune. It has a token with weekly volumes of $1,859. Its holders proportionally receive 1% of the deposit commission from market makers.
A prediction market on Arbitrum. Notably, trading is only in the token $FORE. Inside, there is an NFT marketplace called Analyst NFT, where users level up after purchase. With an increase in the number of correct predictions, the NFT level also rises.
Predict the ROI of a new token or the movement direction of an existing one. Received $1 million in investments; trading is conducted only in on the BSC network.
Predictions on Base for degens, with bets on favorite shitcoins. An extremely pleasant feature is that weekly, the top 10 traders by %PnL receive $250 plus the protocol's income for the week.
The topic of predictions is as old as time, but with the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies and platforms like Polymarket, trading on prediction markets has become more convenient and accessible. Now, you can follow events around the world and vote for outcomes, literally investing through a crypto wallet.
Despite numerous prediction markets, the majority of users are concentrated on a few Tier 1 projects, with one dominating—an outcome unexpected by many.
The problem of manipulations on such markets has not been fully resolved, but new solutions based on AI oracles are actively being developed to mitigate these risks.
Will the popularity of prediction markets remain as high after the completion of the U.S. presidential race? Probably not, considering the situation after the 2020 elections when many projects closed due to a sharp outflow of liquidity. This problem remains relevant.
Nevertheless, a positive aspect is the growing interest in prediction markets among people not directly involved in the crypto industry but who enjoy betting. Thanks to mainstream media like CNN, prediction markets are becoming more widely known to the general audience.