Some principles
If you don't know whether to do A or B, imagine that you are 80 years old. Look back at your life and ask, what will you regret more as you get older? What did A not do or what B did not do? It is worth taking on what you will regret less later. This basically explains why Bezos quit his job and launched Amazon.
If you have two similar options, choose the one that you think will bring more luck (money, opportunities, etc.). Luck is relative, so think more about which of your options opens up more "options". The more flexible an option is, the more likely the chances of outsize returns.
If you have two options for what to do, and a 50/50 choice, choose the one that is more difficult in the short term (it usually gives more results in the long term). In otherwise, choose the option that delays gratification and has more complex learning opportunity.
What can be asserted without evidence can be rejected without evidence.
If you have a choice of two similar candidates for a role, choose the less charismatic of the two. All other things being equal. The less charismatic candidate got to where he is by the sheer force of effort. The charismatic candidate had help