Game Theory: How Civilizations Build Strategies, but History Destroys Them

Introduction: Can We Predict the Future Through Mathematical Models?

From ancient times, empires, kingdoms, and states have sought to govern the world through predictability and strategic laws, allowing them to foresee the behavior of allies and adversaries.

In the 20th century, the West developed game theory—a mathematical model explaining how participants make decisions in conflict and competition. States, corporations, and international organizations began constructing their strategies based on this logic.

However, history contains phenomena that defy calculation. Game theory can explain how to negotiate, react to competitors, and manage economies, but it is powerless against unpredictable historical shifts. The experience of the Soviet Union and Russia demonstrates that the world is not a chessboard, but rather a complex, living system, where unexpected decisions and cultural uniqueness shatter any mathematical models.

I. How Western States Apply Game Theory: Historical Examples

1.1. The British Empire and the Theory of Imperial Expansion

For centuries, the British Empire relied on the logic of predictability to govern its colonies. Its strategy included:

✔ Divide and rule – In Asian and African countries, Britain supported internal conflicts, ensuring that local elites could not unite against the colonizers.
✔ Economic game theory – Britain introduced unfavorable tax and trade systems in the colonies, forcing local elites to cooperate.
✔ Control through education – The British created elite schools in India, Egypt, and South Africa to train future leaders in a way that aligned with the empire’s interests.

But all these strategies ultimately failed.

🔴 India – The British Empire failed to predict Gandhi’s effect, as he rejected violent resistance and developed a new strategy of peaceful protest.
🔴 America – The British did not expect American colonists to unite and choose a new ideology of freedom over loyalty to the empire.

As a result, the empire collapsed, because people acted differently than strategic control theories had predicted.

1.2. France and the Theory of Revolution

France applied game theory strategies to manage Europe in the 18th century.

✔ Louis XIV, the “Sun King” – He built an absolute monarchy, assuming that the people would always act rationally within established economic and social norms.
✔ French diplomacy – France maintained a balance of power in Europe through alliances and trade agreements.
✔ Colonial empires – France used slavery and trade, crafting a predictable global market model.

But in 1789, everything collapsed.

🔴 The French Revolution – The people abandoned rational logic, and the state system collapsed.
🔴 Social class management theory failed – The Third Estate rewrote the rules, creating a new reality that the government could not predict.

The Revolution proved that when people stop playing by the rules, systems become chaotic and unpredictable.

1.3. Ancient Rome and Game Theory in Politics

The Roman Empire used game theory in its political system.

✔ Plebeians and patricians – The Senate regulated conflicts between social classes through predictable reforms.
✔ International policy – Rome granted autonomy to some conquered territories while turning others into colonies.
✔ Army and legion strategy – The Romans developed a system of maximum control over enemies.

But Rome’s fall came as a shock to its elites.

🔴 The Huns and barbarians – They did not follow Rome’s rules, tearing down the empire’s borders.
🔴 Civil wars – Rome failed to predict the consequences of power struggles, leading to chaos and internal collapse.

Rome’s history confirms the fundamental paradox of game theory: The more complex a governance system becomes, the faster it collapses under unexpected events.

II. Modern Corporations and Cities: Game Theory in the 21st Century

2.1. The U.S., China, and Economic Strategies

✔ Apple, Microsoft, Google – Their business models rely on creating “closed ecosystems”, forcing users to remain trapped within their digital worlds.
✔ Financial sanctions – The U.S. used game theory to control the global economy, but alternative payment systems weakened this mechanism.

2.2. Global Cities and Their Battle for Leadership

✔ New York vs London – Financial centers compete through tax and investment strategies.
✔ Singapore vs Dubai – They create different growth models, but economic calculations collapse under global crises.

III. The Soviet Union, Russia, and the Phenomenon of “Unpredictable Strategy”

🔹 The USSR did not fit into the logic of Western development models.
🔹 The Soviet person was unpredictable for Western strategists – The West built models of “consumer society”, but the USSR had a different ideology and motivation.
🔹 The collapse of the USSR – Many analysts predicted wars, chaos, and national disintegration, but it did not happen as they expected.
🔹 Modern Russia – Western countries use economic pressure strategies, but the result is an unexpected strengthening of internal resilience.

The Soviet and Russian experience demonstrates that mathematical models cannot explain cultural and historical processes.

IV. Conclusion: Game Theory as a Tool for Control, But Not a Law of Nature
1. Mathematical strategy only works in ideal conditions.
2. The more complex the world becomes, the faster predictable models collapse.
3. Cultural, historical, and emotional factors are stronger than any logic.

The experience of civilizations, empires, and states proves that history is not a chessboard but a living system, where the only rule is the absence of rules.

Game theory gives the illusion of control, but in the end, chaos, revolution, or a new way of thinking always prevails. 🚀

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