August 23, 2021

Традиционная энергетика

проблемы традиционной энергетики:

ENR firms face two related challenges. One is that greater scrutiny from the public over sustainability and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is making it harder to obtain capital for expansion. The second is that capital is flowing to their insurgent competitors, which are disrupting these industries and beginning to take market share.

Выборы очень распыленные, нужны усилия и координация многих компаний:

Carbon emissions are more diffuse and the effects are more distributed, without a direct link to the source. Addressing them requires coordinated efforts across firms, sectors, and nations, since no single company can change the course of an entire industry. As the links to emission-intensive industries and their products become clearer, public pressure mounts and investment capital for future projects becomes more difficult to obtain. Market caps have not kept pace with other industries, and so these industries represent a smaller portion of the economy (see Figure 2). ENR firms need to find ways to respond while continuing to provide the materials and services necessary for consumers to enjoy the same level of personal consumption.

Капитализация практически не изменилась:

For ENR companies to maintain their access to capital markets and thrive over the next few decades, they’ll need to show they can profitably execute a robust, multifaceted vision of global sustainability.

Удачные примеры трансформации:

In Finland, refiner and chemical producer Neste has invested in innovative technologies and business lines to become the world’s largest producer of renewable diesel fuel. More than a decade ago, Neste’s leadership recognized the mounting risks of depending on traditional petroleum products as the fuel source of the future. Predictions of peak oil weren’t just academic; they spelled the end of growth. In response, the company invested in technologies to produce diesel from renewable sources. Renewable diesel now furnishes most of Neste’s profits, but its eightfold increase in market valuation over the past decade results not only from this major new business line, but from other prospects stemming from it, including alternative aviation fuels (see Figure 5).

In Denmark, the state oil and natural gas company, Dansk Olie og Naturgas, found that shareholders, customers, and other citizens were increasingly hostile to large carbon emitters, putting its long-term existence in doubt. In the first decade of the 2000s, after having already increased its presence in power generation and distribution, its leaders adopted a climate strategy that eventually led it to recapitalize the company, divest its oil and gas assets, and invest heavily in wind farms. Now rebranded as Ørsted, the company is a global leader in renewable energy delivery, with nearly all of its profits from wind (see Figure 6).

Economics. You can’t change the world if you can’t fund the change. But forming the capital for new investments in the energy and resource transition increasingly requires not just hitting your marks on performance and earnings, but also telling a credible investor story, showing real leadership and the potential to create new value.

Meanwhile, the funding and underwriting bars are rising. The six largest banks in the US have pledged to provide financing only to zero-carbon projects by 2050, and combined they have set aside trillions of dollars to fund green projects. Major insurers have balked at underwriting coal projects, and coal companies are reporting higher debt costs. Oil sands players in Alberta are also reporting challenges getting insurance. With more reporting requirements related to climate risk, and more discussions about stranded costs, the challenges in forming capital in fossil fuels will continue to grow.