Prospect for a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia before COP29
Since the announcement of COP29 in Dubai, almost to this day, opinions have been circulating regarding the possible conclusion of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia before this event. But how realistic are such statements?
Review
The event of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) will be held in Azerbaijan from November 22 to 29, 2024. By the way, Armenia also supported Azerbaijan in this matter, withdrawing its candidacy as a “good will”.
Baku attaches significant importance to this event, because after all, virtually the entire world agenda will cover this event, which is the right moment to raise the issue of concluding a peace treaty. In this context, it is important to understand how the Armenian side will react to this.
Should we wait for N. Pashinyan in Baku?
At the beginning of the summer of 2024, rumors began to circulate regarding a possible visit by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to the capital of Azerbaijan. This information was met with great enthusiasm in the expert community of both countries, and this happened against the backdrop of increasing talk about the likelihood of concluding a peace treaty before COP29.
In general, as it turned out later, the information was disseminated by Turkish-Azerbaijani political scientist Ahmet Shairoglu (1) on his personal blog “X” and was quickly picked up by the media. After some time, an official denial came from the press secretary of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nazeli Baghdasaryan (2) that N. Pashinyan would not be come to Baku. Most likely, this is the final decision of the Armenian prime minister and it is definitely not worth waiting for it in Azerbaijan in the fall. By the way, Pashinyan himself did not express any opinion on this matter.
Who will replace Pashinyan?
Pashinyan’s refusal to attend the COP29 event in Baku does not in any way negate the fact that representatives of the Armenian delegation will not visit Azerbaijan at all. This would not be entirely correct on the part of Iravan. Moreover, on July 21, 2024, within the framework of the Second Shusha Global Media Forum, Azerbaijan, through the mouth of Assistant to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev, invited Armenia to COP29 (3).
At the time of writing, no official response has been received from the Armenian side, but it will definitely come. There is an assumption that Armenian FM Ararat Mirzoyan or Speaker of Parliament Alen Simonyan will come to the capital of Azerbaijan.
Forecast of possible actions of the Armenian side
This part will give a rough assessment of the likely actions of the Armenian delegation during the COP29 period. Most likely, Iravan will begin to imitate those topics that are currently of highest priority to her. Alternatively, one of the most likely reasons for the delay in the official response is precisely that the Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia is now thinking about these theses. That is, how they will justify their trip and what market conditions they will follow. There are several points here:
1) The Armenian side will begin to promote the idea that the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) is not the “private property” of Baku and the Azerbaijani side should not use this event as pressure on Irevan. In such a situation, the visit of the Armenian delegation may not take place at all.
2) Before the start of COP29, Armenia will most likely begin to update the topic of “Armenian prisoners of war in Baku” in order to demonstrate to the international community that Azerbaijan’s position is “not completely sincere” and that the previously voiced Pashinyan thesis of “all for all” should be fulfilled by Baku for creating trust “on the table”. It is also worth mentioning here that A. Mirzoyan can request a meeting with them.
3) The topic of probably updated theses of the Armenian side may also include the creation of mechanisms for investigating shootings on the (conditional) border. Armenia needs this, at a minimum, in order to deprive Azerbaijan of the hypothetical possibility of forcefully resolving border issues in the future.
It would seem, at first glance, that Iravan’s position is logical and peaceful, but if we look at the issue more broadly, we will notice that the Armenian side is proposing this against the backdrop of ongoing militarization by France, India and the EU, as well as recent joint exercises with the United States. In other words, Baku’s consent will give Irevan carte blanche to realize its far-reaching goals, strengthening the position of the West in the South Caucasus. Thus, in the long term, without signing a peace agreement, this is unprofitable for Azerbaijan.
4) There is another “chewed thesis” that can be used against Azerbaijan - this is that “Azerbaijan is an authoritarian country” and or “basic human freedoms are not respected in Azerbaijan”. But the use of this thesis will be fraught with at least 2 significant consequences for Armenia itself:
- First, in Armenia itself, during the recent anti-Pashinyan protests led by Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, violations of the rights of protesters, as well as harsh treatment by the Armenian police, were recorded.
- Secondly, this will mean Armenia’s ejection of the peace process and a further aggravation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, which could affect the situation both “on the table” and “on the field”.
So, most likely the Armenian delegation will not take this extreme step, and if it does, then the autumn visit to Baku, as mentioned above, will not take place.
As a postscript, it can be stated that the signing of a peace agreement between Baku and Iravan before COP29 or during the event is unlikely due to the above reasons. In addition, Azerbaijan will not change its narratives.
In case the Armenian delegation does not begin to raise any theses, then signing some kind of framework agreement (for example, “on mutual understanding”) or issuing a joint statement of commitment to exclusively peaceful resolution of controversial issues looks realistic. But this is too optimistic a scenario and everything will depend on what particular combination of cards Armenia will “go” to Azerbaijan after its official invitation to this significant event.
Sources:
- @shahidovcom (X) – https://x.com/shahidovcom/status/1798420356086338027
- Такой визит не намечен: Назели Багдасарян ответила на слухи об участии премьер-министра в COP29 – https://armenpress.am/ru/article/1138925
- Azerbaijan invites Armenia to Cop29 climate talks – https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2024/07/21/azerbaijan-invites-armenia-to-cop29-climate-talks/