Strategic Goals Achieved and Anticipated by Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan: January – July 2024
Amid Armenia's search for a new orientation in the West, the political trajectory of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which has undergone significant changes since the "Velvet Revolution" and his rise to power in 2018, draws particular attention. This article will examine the main pillars of the internal and external political agenda of the Armenian Prime Minister.
I. Foundation of Geopolitical Strategy
The "Brussels Agreement" — a collection of documents signed on April 5, 2024, between the U.S., EU, and Armenia — is perhaps one of the main achievements of the Armenian Prime Minister in the country's geopolitical pivot towards the West. Beyond the fundamental provisions signed in this document, it also creates a "geopolitical cushion" for Pashinyan in case of unforeseen circumstances.
According to open sources (1), the Brussels Agreement reflects a wide range of issues in the (military-political) agenda of "Armenia-West," which mainly converge on two fundamental ideological and strategic foundations:
Moreover, this document should also be viewed as a "roadmap" for Armenia's integration into the West. Certain provisions are already being implemented by the parties. For example, it is worth noting:
- The allocation of €10 million to Armenia from the "European Peace Facility" by the EU (2);
- Statements about the possible increase in personnel for the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia (EUMA) (3);
- The Armenia-U.S. military exercises "Eagle Partner" (4).
Additionally, the Armenian side has also begun detailed discussions with the U.S. regarding cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, particularly the construction of a new nuclear power plant in the country, and is awaiting proposals from Washington (5).
II. Relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye
Regarding neighboring countries, the agenda naturally includes the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, which is closely tied to the amendment (of the preamble) of Armenia's constitution and the establishment of diplomatic relations with Türkiye (without preconditions). So far, there has been no significant progress in either direction. It's worth mentioning the recent removal of the article on unblocking regional communications (including the Zangezur Corridor issue) from the peace agenda with Azerbaijan (6).
Overall, Pashinyan's team seemingly remains committed to the idea of establishing a land route within the framework of Armenia's sovereignty and the "Crossroads of Peace" project. As for the periodic shootings along the conditional border, Irevan will continue to insist on the creation of a mechanism for detecting ceasefire violations (7).
In the "Turkish direction," there hasn't been much success. The "Kılıç-Rubinyan" negotiation format continues. Following the last meeting on July 30, 2024, the Armenian side reiterated the position of establishing relations without any preconditions (8).
III. Cooperation with France, India, and Iran
Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly called for reforms in the Armenian army and the diversification of arms suppliers. This has resulted in what appears to be the militarization of Armenia by France and India.
Armenia - France
Paris has officially sold Irevan night vision devices, "Bastion" armored vehicles, air defense missiles, GM200 radars, "Mistral" MANPADS, MBDA missile systems, and more (9). According to agreements, Armenian military personnel of various ranks will also have the opportunity to train in France, and in Armenia, this will be overseen by a French military instructor.
Armenia - India
India supports Armenia in diversifying its arms supplies. This cooperation mirrors the Azerbaijan-Pakistan partnership. New Delhi has already delivered 4 Pinaka rocket launcher batteries worth $265 million and 4 Swathi radar batteries to Irevan, which has sparked protests from Baku. By the end of 2024, deliveries of Akash-1S air defense systems are also expected (10).
Armenia - Iran
There is also significant interest in the ongoing rumors about military-technical cooperation between Armenia and Iran, particularly regarding the sale of drones by Tehran to Irevan. Recent rumors include a report from Iran International media, which mentioned a $500 million Iran-Armenia arms deal. In an updated version of the article, Armenia's Foreign Ministry did not deny the sale, citing "diversification of supplies" (11). Although both sides officially deny this, there are strong suspicions that at least a confidential deal exists between Iran and Armenia.
IV. Access to the World Ocean
The Armenian Prime Minister's office has another significant strategic goal — access to the world ocean. At first glance, it might seem that Armenia's access to global markets lies through the lens of unblocking regional communications with Azerbaijan (particularly the Zangezur Corridor) within the framework of a sustainable peace agreement. However, in this context, attention should be given to the trilateral cooperation between Armenia, Iran, and India.
This cooperation involves the Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar. On May 13, 2024, India signed an agreement with Iran to lease the Chabahar port (12) for the next 10 years, which is being considered as a potential transport hub for the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Irevan's mission here is to connect to the use of this port, with the ultimate goal of gaining access to the sea (13). India's Ambassador to Armenia, Nilakshi Saha Sinha, has previously mentioned Armenia's interest in this port (14). However, the actual implementation of this project remains at the level of statements for now.
Sources:
1) 20 points. What did Armenia, the EU and the US agree on in Brussels? – https://caliber.az/en/post/234200/
2) Հայաստանը 10 մլն եվրո կստանա ԵՄ Խաղաղության հիմնադրամից. Հունգարիան հանել է արգելանքը – https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1195101
3) Мандат миссии ЕС в Армении может быть продлен еще на 2 года - премьер – https://am.sputniknews.ru/20240312/mandat-missii-es-v-armenii-mozhet-byt-prodlena-esche-na-2-goda---premer-73281222.html
4) Joint Armenian-American exercises "Eagle Partner 2024" begin in Armenia – https://armenpress.am/en/article/1195755
5) Հայաստանը նոր ատոմակայան կառուցելու հարցում աշխատում է ԱՄՆ-ի հետ, գործընթացն առարկայական փուլ է մտել – https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1194976
6) Effective unblocking of regional communications remains key part of Armenia's agenda -Foreign Ministry responds to Azerbaijan – https://armenpress.am/en/article/1197251
7) ՀՀ ԶՈՒ-ն ադրբեջանական դիրքերի ուղղությամբ կրակ չի բացել․ ՊՆ – https://verelq.am/hy/node/148721
8) Ռուբինյանը եւ Քըլըչը քննարկել են երկաթուղու սահմանային անցակետի հարցը – https://mediamax.am/am/news/armeniaturkey/55367
9) Армения уже получила первое оружие по контрактам с Францией – https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2024/02/23/7180291/
10) Лео Виггер: Реальная политика по-индийски – Пакистан и Индия поставляют все больше оружия на Южный Кавказ. Какие цели они преследуют в этом регионе? – https://www.ipg-journal.io/ru/rubriki/vneshnjaja-politika-i-bezopasnost/realnaja-politika-po-indiiski-2082/
11) Iran and Armenia sign secret $500 million arms deal – https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407248345
12) India inks 10-year deal to operate Iran's Chabahar port – https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-sign-10-year-pact-with-iran-chabahar-port-management-et-reports-2024-05-13/
13) Հայաստանը դիտարկում է Չաբահարի նավահանգստային օպերատոր դառնալու հնարավորությունը, ինչը կնպաստի նաև հայ-հնդկական տնտեսական կապերի խորացմանը – https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1138750
14) Индия ждет предложений Армении по вопросу использования порта Чабахар - посол – https://am.sputniknews.ru/20240517/indiya-zhdet-predlozheniy-armenii-po-voprosu-ispolzovaniya-porta-chabakhar---posol-75923146.html