Probability of Iranian-Armenian arms deal and possible reaction of Baku   

On 24 July 2024, sensational news about Iran's sale of $500 million worth of arms to Armenia was leaked to the media. The news was disseminated by the publication Iran International, authored by Canadian-Iranian journalist Negar Mojtahedi, which eventually brought the topic of military cooperation between Iran and Armenia to the forefront once again.

Information content

To begin with, it is worth noting that the publication Iran International, which hangs outside the Islamic Republic, is an opposition publication, as well as the author of the article Negar Mojtahedi herself. In her ‘exclusive’ news (1) N. Mojtahedi herself refers to at least two persons:

– A certain ‘source familiar with the situation’, who named the value of the contract.

– A ‘senior military official in the Middle East’ who said that ‘the agreement was broken down into several contracts and was signed in the last few months’ .

According to the ‘exclusive list’, Armenia received from Iran UAV types Shahed-136, Shahed-129, Shahed-197, and Mohajer-6, as well as Khordad-3, Majid, Khordad-15, and Shahed Arman surface-to-air missile systems. It goes on to say that Iran International does not disclose the names of sources for their own safety.

Armenian Defence Ministry's visit to Iran

At this point it is important to note the visit of the Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan to Iran in early March 2024, where he met (2) with Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, and also held (3) talks with the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in the context of Armenian-Iranian defence cooperation.

Whether Iran International's source was referring to the results of these meetings, it is premature to say. It cannot be ignored that (4) Armenia's defence expenditures in 2024 will increase to more than $1.4 billion, which is 7% more than in 2023.

Background of question

In fact, the issue of Armenia's acquisition of Iranian weapons should not cause a stir. Thus, as early as October 2022, the Chief Military Assistant to Iran's Supreme Leader, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi openly stated (5) that Armenia (along with 22 other countries) had submitted an official application for the purchase of Iranian UAVs. In summary, the possibility of Iran arming Armenia was also admitted (6) by the ISW in its report.

In April 2023, Azerbaijani wire services began publishing (7) routes of increased air cargo traffic from Iran to Armenia, and in May 2023, during the next border clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Azerbaijani media close to the government accused (8) Iravan of using Iranian UAVs against Azerbaijani positions.

In July 2023, against the background of the visit of the head of the Israeli Defence Ministry Yoav Galant to Baku, the Israeli media outlet ‘i24’ published (9) an article mentioning information about Armenia's use of Iranian UAVs in the spring border clashes with Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the Armenian side, in particular Suren Papikyan himself, has periodically officially denied all the above statements and still denies them.

Official reactions

When asked by Armenpress about information about Armenia signing an arms contract with Iran, Armenian Defence Ministry spokesman Aram Torosyan responded (10) negatively, saying:

- ‘Fictitious, false publications do not deserve a response.’

But further, the news in Iran International was updated with an official response from the Armenian Foreign Ministry, which wrote the following:

- ‘Armenia is currently diversifying its security relations within the framework of international law. We don't have any further comment on this.’

From this very unambiguous statement of the diplomatic department it becomes clear that the official Armenian authorities, maybe for the first time, do not deny the fact of military co-operation with Iran.

In turn, on 26 July 2024, Iranian Ambassador to Armenia Mehdi Sobhani also denied (11) rumours of a secret arms deal between Tehran and Iravan.

So, if the answer of the Iranian ambassador is as diplomatic and logical as possible, the apparent discoordination between the Armenian power structures represented by the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia is real. Because no matter how diplomatic the response of the Armenian foreign ministry looks, it does not deny the fact of the cooperation, unlike the categorical statement of the press secretary of the Defence Ministry and the ‘regular’ statement of the ambassador of the Islamic Republic.

Theses

• Most likely, Iran and Armenia do have some agreements and commitments in the military sphere, which both sides do not want to disclose and keep in strictest confidentiality;
• Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey and Israel, are aware of the co-operation, but due to the existing geopolitical situation they do not react to it in an acute way, limiting themselves to reactions in the media space;
• Obviously, if the arms deal is officially confirmed, it may lead to a deterioration of Iran-Azerbaijan-Turkey relations, which is not beneficial to the regional centres of power against the background of the West's attempts to strengthen the South Caucasus through Armenia;
• Another factor is the internal political situation in Iran itself. It is premature to predict the foreign policy directive of the newly elected president, ethnic Azerbaijani Masoud Pezeshkian, and Baku, which has recently been warming relations with Tehran, takes this point into account.

As a result, there are two versions:

- There really was no deal and Iran International published fake information, which is unlikely against the background of numerous alternative sources.

- There was a deal, but its official confirmation is not favourable for Iran, Armenia or Azerbaijan and Turkey due to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.

28.07.2024

Sources:

1. Iran and Armenia sign secret $500 million arms deal – https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407248345
2. Suren Papikyan – fb.com – https://www.facebook.com/papikyan.suren/posts/pfbid02QDrDe3dBN9cFGzSnvygFcd5E5buwokZQPcbSQnb5Vn14rs4KWMZssTEzHLcw8v5wl
3. Suren Papikyan – fb.com – https://www.facebook.com/papikyan.suren/posts/pfbid02tPrHj8L3nqUASw71LtwFpaqpLm1jcxA6njmnAj48ev1hN2Jxhc3657H9YRgd7ahXl
4. Ֆինանսների նախարարը ներկայացրեց 2024-ին պաշտպանության ոլորտին ուղղվող ծախսերը – https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1125622
5. 22 countries requested to purchase Iran military drones, official says – https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221019-22-countries-requested-to-purchase-iran-military-drones-official-says/
6. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 26, 2023 – https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023
7. Iranian-owned Boeings heavily involved in arms transport to Armenia – https://report.az/en/foreign-politics/iranian-owned-boeings-heavily-involved-in-arms-transport-to-armenia/
8. Армяне атакуют позиции ВС Азербайджана дронами-камикадзе – https://caliber.az/post/164847/
9. Gallant’s visit to Azerbaijan underlines Iranian threat to regional security – https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/analysis-opinion/1689501192-gallant-s-visit-to-azerbaijan-underlines-iranian-threat-to-regional-security
10. ՊՆ-ն հերքում է Իրանի հետ 500 միլիոն դոլարի սպառազինության ձեռքբերման պայմանագիր ստորագրելու լուրը – https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1196383
11. Iran's envoy rejects reports of Tehran-Yerevan arms deal – https://en.mehrnews.com/news/218384/Iran-s-envoy-rejects-reports-of-Tehran-Yerevan-arms-deal