The issue of implementing the Zangezur corridor - Summer 2024

The Zangezur corridor has once again become a topic of discussion against the backdrop of statements by the Special Representative of the President of Azerbaijan Elchin Amirbekov and the opposite statements by the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the reception of the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. So, where does the issue of opening the Zangezur corridor lead in this case and which scenario is the most realistic?

I. Asymmetric statements of the sides

The issue of opening the Zangezur corridor is perhaps one of the most complex and pressing issues in the negotiation track between Azerbaijan and Armenia, not only because there are specific contradictions between the direct sides, but also in the context of the geopolitical interests of both regional and non-centres of power.

Baku's position

On July 30, 2024, Elchin Amirbekov, the Special Representative of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, in his speech at the online seminar at the Hudson Institute, against the backdrop of the current situation in the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, stated (1) that the restoration of the Zangezur Corridor could serve as a measure to strengthen confidence between the two countries, as it would increase their interdependence to a certain extent.

Tehran Messages

It is noteworthy that a few hours after this statement, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, during a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Tehran against the backdrop of the inauguration of the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, expressed (2) the opinion that "Iran considers the Zangezur Corridor to be harmful to Armenia and continues to defend this position," adding that "... the actions of some countries that come from afar and interfere in the internal affairs of countries will turn against these countries."

Pashinyan's narratives

In turn, the Armenian Prime Minister stated that:

- “Armenia has repeatedly stated that it does not recognize any extra-regional route on the territory of its country.”

It is unlikely that this dialogue between the two main political figures of the country in the context of the statements of the representative of the President of Azerbaijan was a simple coincidence.

II. "Aliyev - Pashinyan" debates

In general, the latest trends on this issue indicate that both Baku and Irevan have obvious contradictions and their own points of view on this issue.

The discrepancy in positions between the two Caucasian countries first became apparent in early 2023, even before Baku's final resolution of the Karabakh issue. On the same day of January 10, 2023, first Nikol Pashinyan and then Ilham Aliyev expressed (3) completely opposite opinions on the Zangezur corridor. The Armenian Prime Minister called the provision of an extraterritorial corridor through southern Armenia to Azerbaijan "absurdity", adding that the transfer of the "corridor" to Baku could lead to the loss of the country's sovereignty. In response to this, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev sent a specific message to Irevan in an interview with local channels on the same day, saying:

- "The implementation of the Zangezur corridor is a historical necessity. Whether Armenia wants it or not, it will be implemented."

The "debate" between the two leaders continued (4) several months later. On May 25, 2023, during an extended meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Moscow, N. Pashinyan objected to I. Aliyev's theses regarding the use of the word "corridor" in the context of opening regional transport routes in the South Caucasus, describing this as Azerbaijan making "territorial claims" against Armenia. Aliyev countered by saying that "... Baku has no territorial claims against Armenia" and "... the name corridor is in no way an encroachment on anyone's territory."

III. Türkiye's plans and the Russian-Armenian contradiction

Ankara's calculations

In this context, we cannot ignore the position of Turkey, which is in a more advantageous situation after the post-conflict situation in the South Caucasus than Russia and Iran. The position of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan converges on two options: a) Through the territory of Armenia itself (without direct control of Irevan) and b) through Iran. In his statements, the Turkish leader noted (5) that Iran has a positive attitude towards this. In general, it was the Turkish side, through the Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloglu, who first announced (6) the completion date of the project:

- "In general, the entire process of creating this corridor will take five years. I think that in 2028 we will completely complete all the work."

The Kremlin's position

Regarding Russia's position, on January 18, 2024, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at a press conference dedicated to summing up the results of the department's activities in 2023 (7) that the Zangezur corridor was never discussed within the framework of the trilateral agreements between Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan.

He added that according to the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020, when all regional communications and routes are unblocked, the road passing through the territory of Armenia will have to be controlled by the FSB of the Russian Federation. It was further noted that this (between Russia and Armenia) was agreed upon, but "then everything went somewhere again."

"Corridor logic" of the Armenian side

The above can only explain the fact that Armenia's positions are getting closer to the West. On January 23, 2024, the Armenian Foreign Ministry Ararat Mirzoyan made a (8) statement which stated that:

- "Armenia has not undertaken any obligations to build the Zangezur corridor from the main part of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the Armenian Syunik region [historical Zangezur] dividing them and considers the "corridor logic" unacceptable."

Theses

In summary, it can be assumed that Armenia, as its positions tendentiously converge with the West, will continue to promote an alternative logic with its "Crossroads of Peace". Washington and Brussels' full support for Irevan in this matter is beyond doubt.
On the other hand, it is unlikely that Baku will change its categorical position on this issue.
In turn, Iran will be categorically against Azerbaijan and Turkey's sole control over the route through Armenia and will seek to ensure that the project is either not implemented at all, or is implemented by laying it through its own territory without the control of Baku and Ankara.
Tehran will also be against Western patronage over the corridor in the event that, in the most positive scenario, Irevan achieves control over the road through its territory.
Specifically, Russia remains "out of touch" in the current situation. The Kremlin only has the provisions of the 2020 trilateral statement in its hands, and it is the option of sole control of the corridor that could preserve Russia's influence in the South Caucasus in the long term; however, how Russian diplomacy will achieve this against the backdrop of difficult relations with the Armenian side remains in question.
At the time of writing, the most realistic option so far remains the route through Iran, in which Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran will leave four players at once - Russia, the US, the EU and Armenia - behind.

28.07.2024

Sources:

Открытие Зангезурского коридора послужит мерой укрепления доверия между Азербайджаном и Арменией - Эльчин Амирбеков – https://www.trend.az/azerbaijan/business/3928874.html
Иран расценивает Зангезурский коридор во вред Армении – https://ru.irna.ir/news/85553402/Иран-расценивает-Зангезурский-коридор-во-вред-Армении
Ереван и Баку далеки от согласия: последние заявления Пашиняна и Алиева – https://jam-news.net/ru/алиев-и-пашинян-о-зангезурском-корид/
"Армянский перекресток" или "Зангезурский коридор": перепалка Пашиняна и Алиева в Москве – https://am.sputniknews.ru/20230525/armyanskiy-perekrestok-ili-zangezurskiy-koridor-perepalka-pashinyana-i-alieva-v-moskve-60142526.html
Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: Temennimiz Zengezur ve Laçin'i barış koridoru haline getirerek açmaktır – https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-temennimiz-zengezur-ve-lacini-baris-koridoru-haline-getirerek-acmaktir/3001168
Bakan Uraloğlu açıkladı: Zengezur Koridoru 2028 yılında hayata geçebilir – https://www.yirmidort.tv/ekonomi/bakan-uraloglu-acikladi-zengezur-koridoru-2028-yilinda-hayata-gecebilir-146075
Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan never discussed so-called Zangezur Corridor, says Lavrov – https://armenpress.am/en/article/1128350
Միրզոյան. Հայաստանը միջանցքի մասով որևէ պարտավորություն չի ստանձնել – https://news.am/arm/news/803548.html