Compromise on the Corridor: A New Stage in the Armenian-Azerbaijani Negotiation Agenda – August 2024

The topic of signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia has once again become relevant following recent statements by the representative of the President of Azerbaijan, Elchin Amirbekov, about resolving the issues related to the unblocking of regional communications, which was later confirmed by the representative of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Anna Badalyan. Now, the negotiation track between the two Caucasian countries is being conducted in the context of amending the preamble of Armenia's constitution.

I. The Issue of Regional Communications

Statements by Amirbekov

On August 7, 2024, the Special Representative of the President of Azerbaijan, Elchin Amirbekov, speaking about the peace agenda with Armenia, told (1) Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that the article on the unblocking of regional communications was removed from the negotiation process, which also means postponing the issue of the implementation of the Zangezur Corridor:

– "On mutual agreement, we decided to take this paragraph out of the peace agreement and to refer it to a later stage… I don't want to complicate even further the task of finalizing the peace agreement. So, we decided to take it out of the text, but we can still reflect in the text [on] the fact that this is one of the other issues on which the countries may come back at some point to discuss and to come to a common agreement."

Thus, according to the Azerbaijani official, the only remaining obstacle to further progress in the peace process between Baku and Irevan is the territorial claims against Azerbaijan enshrined in Armenia's current constitution (2).

The Washington Factor

It is noteworthy that Amirbekov made these statements following the negotiations at the United States Institute of Peace in early August 2024 (3), where participants included U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien and First Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Yuri Kim, along with other American officials. These two American diplomats have repeatedly supported Armenian narratives on resolving various issues with Baku. Special attention is drawn to the figure of James O'Brien, who, shortly before meeting with Amirbekov, stated the following during a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on "The Future of Europe" on July 31, 2024 (4):

– "We spend a lot of time on Armenia. [Antony] Blinken and [Ursula] von der Leyen met with Prime Minister [Nikol] Pashinyan a few months ago and created a new platform [CEPA] to help Armenia reduce its dependence on Russia. Currently, it [Armenia] is almost entirely dependent on Russia for energy and the economy. We need to diversify this to enable the bold steps that Prime Minister Pashinyan is taking to break away from Russia. So we are creating conditions for this."

In Moscow, O'Brien's direct statements naturally drew a reaction. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called (5) the U.S. claims about Armenia's desire to turn away from Russia unfounded, accusing the West of promoting a destructive agenda in the South Caucasus and seeking to break Russia's historical ties with its traditional allies and neighbors.

Irevan's Reaction

The statements by the Azerbaijani official about removing the issue of unblocking communications were later confirmed (6) by the Armenian side through statements by the spokesperson for the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Ani Badalyan:

– "Noting that the article related to regional communications was removed from the draft of the peace agreement by mutual consent, we must emphasize that their effective unblocking continues to be an important part of Armenia's vision and agenda for peace and economic development in the region. This was best reflected in the 'Crossroads of Peace' program presented by the Armenian government, which is based on the well-known principles of respect for sovereignty and jurisdiction, as well as reciprocity and equality."

Thus, while the Azerbaijani side announced mutual agreement on the removal of the article on unblocking regional communications (including the postponement of the Zangezur Corridor issue) from the peace agreement and the need to amend Armenia's Constitution, the Armenian side, while confirming this information, again emphasized the "Crossroads of Peace" project.

Comments by Canadian and Iranian Officials

In this context, parallel statements by Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly and Iran's Ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, made during the same period, are noteworthy.

On August 9, 2024, Mélanie Joly, addressing the topic of the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process, stated (7) that Canada would continue to pressure Azerbaijan to participate in resolving the conflict with Armenia through negotiations in good faith.

On the same day, the Iranian ambassador also made statements. In the context of responding to media questions about a possible Iranian strike on Israel, Mehdi Sobhani, recalling the recent statements by Baku and Irevan, expressed (8) the opinion that the unblocking (of communications) should take place under Armenian sovereignty.

II. Effectiveness of the Peace Treaty Document

It is important to note that since the final resolution of the Karabakh conflict, the negotiation process has undergone significant transformation in terms of the discussion on the initial issues:

The future of the Armenians in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan (this was relevant until September 2023);
The process of delimitation and demarcation of the provisional state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia (there has been variable but not final success between the sides);
The issue of unblocking regional communications (including the Zangezur Corridor).

Now, the last point on unblocking regional communications has also been removed. Thus, the negotiation track is currently focused on the topic of amending the preamble of Armenia's constitution, but even here the situation is not so straightforward. It is evident that this is a resource-intensive and lengthy process for the current Armenian government, and open sources indicate that a referendum on amending the main document of the Armenian Republic will not take place before 2027.

Theses

The current situation between the two Caucasian countries can be interpreted both as a success of Armenian diplomacy in terms of the actual change/transformation of the negotiation agenda and as a manifestation of compromise/negotiability on the part of Baku;
Statements by American and Canadian officials, as well as the repetition of Armenian narratives regarding the vision of unblocking communications, indicate that Baku is facing pressure from the West;
Washington and Brussels will continue to put pressure on Baku to implement the “Crossroads of Peace” project. For Washington, this plan represents a long-term goal of connecting Central Asian countries to the "Crossroads of Peace" through another geostrategic project, the "Middle Corridor," (TITR) which in turn serves to weaken Russia's position in this geography;
The Armenian side will likely begin to promote the idea of the factual inadequacy of the trilateral statement from November 10, 2020, under the pretext of new realities in the negotiation track. In this context, full support from Washington and Brussels for Irevan will be evident;
Statements by U.S., Canadian, and Iranian officials regarding the unblocking of communications in the context of Armenian sovereignty indicate a reluctance to implement the Turkish-Azerbaijani scenario on this issue. Regarding Iran, Tehran will likely be interested in an alternative route through its territory.
The postponement of the Zangezur Corridor issue to the "long term" cannot be ignored, as neither Baku nor Irevan has announced when they will return to this issue. Azerbaijan will likely wait until 2027, when Armenia will hold a referendum on amending its Constitution.
Azerbaijan's wait-and-see position indicates that Armenia will remain in a blocked state for at least the next 3 years. As for the corridor issue, Baku and Ankara will likely consider the scenario involving the "Araz Corridor" through Iran or the option with the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, which, by the way, is already part of the "Middle Corridor" (TITR) project.

Sources:

1) A Constitutional Amendment That Could Lead To Peace Between Armenia And Azerbaijan – https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-constitution-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh/33068045.html

2) Amirbayov: Armenia's territorial claims in constitution remain main obstacle to peace – https://report.az/en/foreign-politics/amirbayov-armenia-s-territorial-claims-in-constitution-remain-main-obstacle-to-peace/

3) Elchin Amirbayov discusses Baku-Yerevan peace process in US – https://report.az/en/foreign-politics/elchin-amirbayov-discusses-baku-yerevan-peace-process-in-us/

4) THE FUTURE OF EUROPE - Subcommittee on Europe and Regional Security Cooperation – https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/the-future-of-europe

5) Захарова назвала голословными заявления США о желании Армении отвернуться от РФ – https://tass.ru/politika/21557237

6) Effective unblocking of regional communications remains key part of Armenia's agenda - Foreign Ministry responds to Azerbaijan – https://armenpress.am/en/article/1197251

7) Canada will continue to press Azerbaijan to engage in good faith with Armenia, reaffirms Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly – https://armenpress.am/en/article/1197376

8) Ապաշրջափակումը պետք է տեղի ունենա Հայաստանի ինքնիշխանության ներքո․ ՀՀ-ում Իրանի դեսպան – https://armeniatoday.news/hy/politics/776425/