Donald Trump is Deceiving Americans With Unreliable Covid-19 Forecasts

We’ve been lied to about the potential death toll in this country and that matters.

The warping of the conversation about death tolls is problematic. People who warn of dire consequences get labeled fear mongers, or worse. Some are accused of wanting to be right at all costs. All this wrangling cheapens our losses.

It wasn’t a month ago that the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), touted by Trump, released a 60,000 estimated death forecast. I participated in a conversation with the lead modeler and reported what I heard. At the time, even with the hope that Americans would #StayHome, the reasonable estimates of most models were 100,000–250,000, in some cases higher. In some cases much higher. Read more…

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