Not Pixel Tokenomics

Most basic thing: 1 $PX = 1 $PX.

The minimum drop will be $100–$130 without donations!

Part 1. Audience.

Not Pixel users can be divided into four categories:

1. Inactive player

2. Active player

3. Active donator

4. Influencer/referral driver

Not Pixel was released on September 24th, and since then the project has consistently maintained 20 million MAU.

The number 20 million can be considered a key indicator, since more than two months have passed since the release, and the statistics have been updated several times.

What do we know about these 20 million users?

At least some of them will be banned, because according to Pixel: ~5 million bots and accounts with farms were found.

It is doubtful that all five million are active. Most of them are likely associated with referral boosting services.

Roughly estimating, we can assume that only 10–20% of these accounts are associated with real farms, which is 500k–1M users who will be blocked out of those 20 million MAU.

The active audience is about 15–25% of the total MAU. Such a small percentage of active players is not a problem for the project, but rather represents a common phenomenon of referral systems.

Referral links remain an important tool for attracting an audience, but they also create difficulties in the form of bots, distorted statistics, and a low percentage of active players (including paying ones). However, without a referral system, many users might not know about the project at all, which makes the system a double-edged sword.

Part 2. Farming Phase & Balance

So who is an active user?

Let's calculate the balance of a player who logged into Not Pixel in the first few days, which means they spent about 67 days in the game:

Of these, they missed an average of 5% for any reason. (67 * 0.05)

The maximum energy value before the introduction of Check-ins was 24. (maximum leveling was achieved in a few days)

Recovery speed (at maximum level) = 1 Energy / 5 min => => 24 Energy / 120 min (2 hours).

An active user could make 3–5 game sessions daily. (avg = 4)

For simplification, we will calculate based on the latest game economy, when the user received +12 PX for correct coloring and +0 for incorrect.

If a player is not a bot, their accuracy is 70–80% "correct" (+12 PX) colorings.

We get the formula for PX for one game session:

The user spent the following game days during the entire farming period:

Let's add the total number of pixels obtained by the Claim mechanic:

For this we have a formula inside the game:

Each correctly colored pixel gives 0.1 PX to the Claim.

That is, on the first day with N colored pixels, we will have ~N*0.1 PX per Claim.

For each subsequent game session, you will add ~N*0.1 PX to the Claim, receiving ~2*N*0.1 PX per Claim for it, etc.

An active user with 3–5 game sessions per day could receive 1–2 Claims per Day. (avg = 1.5 Claims per Day & 1 claim per 3 gaming sessions)

The general formula for Claim will look like this:

Time to put it all together:

A player's balance after 67 days of active play will be equal to:

Let's add rewards for completing tasks here: about 6–7k PX when completing most simple tasks.

We get a range of [80,309; 91,925] PX. This is how much an active player can earn without donations and referrals before the start of the tournament phase.

There will only be about 4–5% players like this. However, this is no small amount, there will be about 1,000,000 of them! (Top 1M players rule, heard of it?)

Now let's imagine a player with less playtime. Their gaming sessions will be less frequent—about 1–2 per day (on average 1.5). There will also be fewer Claims—approximately 1 per day (The number of game sessions per claim will be 1.5), and there will be more missed days, about 10%. Let's see what we get for such a player:

A user who checked in daily from November 4th will receive benefits in the form of additional items and increased energy.

How much does the balance differ between an active player and one who made daily check-ins?

The main difference appears in the last 25 days. For a player who did not check in, these days remain game days, but without additional bonuses (42 game days without check-ins versus 25 days from the first check-in).

Thus, every 4 days a user with check-ins gets +4 to the maximum energy capacity, unlike a regular player. And the total difference in accumulated items is:

• 88 TNT - each of which gives 25 repaints
• 24 energy replenishments - each fully restores energy, which provides 24/28/32/36/40/44 repaints, depending on the maximum energy capacity
• 88 barrels of paint - each provides 9 repaints.

The approximate difference in efficiency looks like this:

What about paying users?

We will approach the PX generated from in-game purchases from a slightly different angle when calculating the supply later.

A small summary:

Thus, we have obtained portraits of 3 different players:

• Active player - earned about ~83,000 PX
• Regular player - received ~23,000 PX
• Active player who completed all check-ins - earned ~190,000 PX

Now let's calculate how much you can get for such a referral:

For example:

If you are an active player and invited 2 active players and 9 regular players, your balance will be >100,000 PX, which allows you to qualify for a drop.

If you are a regular player, then to achieve this goal it is enough to invite, for example, 4 players who made check-ins, 5 active players and 10 regular players.

Keep in mind that these calculations do not include donations, as well as bonuses from participating in events such as riddles or events, such as collecting pumpkins. These factors can significantly increase your PX income.

Part 3. Assembling the Supply Piece by Piece

To determine the supply volume, it is important to understand that not all players will be included in it, but only those who have reached the drop criterion (100k PX). This is good for the project's economy: the drop will be concentrated, and the supply will not be diluted among all users, including bots.

So how many such users are there?

Let's start with an estimate. Among active players without donations, as I mentioned earlier, there are about 1,000,000 people. However, not all of them will reach the drop, approximately 70–80% of the specified number. Players who regularly checked in are practically guaranteed to receive an increased drop and will also be included in the supply.

Their contribution will be approximately: [100,000,000,000 ; 110,000,000,000] PX

Influencers and referral drivers receive 16% of all the pixels farmed by their referrals(using Claim). For analysis, let's take a look at the statistics of other projects. For example, in Lost Dogs, about 94% of users were attracted through referral links. Let's suppose that for Not Pixel this figure is 90%.

Total, to the base volume of farmed tokens is added:

According to rough estimates:

Hypothesis: more than 90% of the pixels earned through donations will be included in the supply, since donators more often reach 100k PX. The average daily income from donations is estimated at $150k–$200k (personal estimate based on observing notpixel.ton), which in 67 days will be:

$10,050,000 – $13,400,000.

According to my calculations, each dollar spent in the game (avg, taking into account discounts and other factors) brings the player approximately 1000 PX. This suggests that donations will add to the supply:

As a result, the total supply before the tournament: will be in the range:

This is the approximate amount of tokens that can be expected before the start of the next phase of the game.

But this is not the end. Let's move on to the next game phase.

Part 4. Tournament

The Tournament. All you need to know about it in terms of tokenomics is that the allocated pool for it is equal to 50 billion PX.

But is everything so simple? Let's figure it out.

My hypothesis is this: all 50 billion PX will go into the supply, since the rewards are distributed among active users, donors, and influencers, and their balances, as we calculated above, are either already sufficient for a drop or close to it.

Of course, I believe that many players saw an opportunity in the tournament and started playing right now. I estimate that there are no more than 30–40% of such users. This means that among them will be distributed about

Why this amount?

It is important to understand exactly how these rewards will be distributed among the participants:

Template owners receive approximately 4–6% from the daily reward pool, based on the current distribution. This means that the rest will go to the most active players.

=> approximately 94% of 50,000,000,000 PX will be distributed among players; next, we will calculate among how many users the rewards will be distributed.

Template Dynamics

Every day the number of templates decreases. If you remember powers of two from school (2¹⁰ = 1024), then after 10 rounds we will know the finalist. However, the share of rewards distributed to template owners increases in proportion to the decrease in their number. This creates a balance between reducing the number of templates and increasing rewards for users.

According to a rough estimate, more than 1,000,000 players will receive rewards. (taking into account overlaps between the winners of each round)

The Impact of Farming Before and During the Tournament

Do not forget that 30–40% of the rewards will go to ordinary players who became active during the tournament to reach the required balance criteria. This means that these users with a balance in the range of [19,733; 23,194] PX will earn a significant share.

Here we are only interested in calculating the impact of the farmed balance before the tournament phase, because we have already taken the prize pool into account:

During the tournament, for each correct recoloring, +4 PX is awarded, and players can continue to make Claims, increasing the total supply.

Farming of new pixels within the tournament can be estimated as

Updated Supply Values:

We did forget something:

We still need to add the part that will be directed to the team, market makers, and towards everything related to the listing of Not Pixel to the final value.

In any case, it is expected that most of the tokens will be distributed among the players, and approximately 20–30% will be used for development, marketing, listing, and other needs.

If you think that the team is taking a share for themselves and this is bad, ask yourself the question:

Why not distribute 100%? Everyone would be happy!

However, I hasten to assure you that a team that altruistically distributes 100% of the tokens is doomed to failure. Without investment in development, the project will have no future.

This means that your tokens will quickly depreciate, and a project without marketing, a team, and further development will not be attractive day one after listing. Not to mention the importance of market makers and launchpools.

Part 5. Price Prediction

SO HOW MUCH FOR ONE PIXEL?!

Let's start with the neighbors in our ecosystem.

How did other projects fare this year?

If you have closely followed the listings this year, you probably noticed a clear progress in the smoothness of the releases themselves. The processes are becoming more and more optimized: mistakes have been corrected, experience has been gained, participants are learning.

Pixel will be one of the final major launches this year.

And how will it perform?

It is worth focusing on the success of large projects launched this year, as well as on the market sentiment and Not Pixel players:

With favorable market sentiment and Pixel's release at a successful moment (which we are observing now), we can expect an average market capitalization of around $300+ million. The project is moving quickly, not having time to "bore" the audience, and at the same time generates income on par (or even more) with those who spend six months preparing for listing.

The supply will be small and concentrated on a loyal active audience. This means that the pressure on the market will be significantly lower than that of some other projects ("Hamster," lol). All this creates the prerequisites for a positive launch, especially against the backdrop of the general market sentiment.

The project did not linger in development, which favorably distinguishes it from many competitors. The release was fast, although not as rapid as Dogs, but at the same time, the game mechanics and activities were diverse. This rich season most likely left a positive impression on the players. Pixel even allowed many to remember the good old pixel battle.

Oddly enough, most of the successful ideas implemented in VK follow the course of Durov's team and his key creation - Telegram. This allows them to gain new life and greater success within the updated ecosystem.

ATH

With a positive market background and support from news about Pixel and the TON ecosystem, a market capitalization in the range of $600–800 million can be expected, which will likely become the ATH for the project.

A Few Words About Error Margin

The magnitude of the error margin can be influenced not only by approximations in the calculations. Other factors include:

• Unaccounted for item giveaways,
• Achievements for beta testing,
• Rewards for template authors,
• Possible new game events that may affect overall farming,
• The actual listing date, which is still unknown,
• etc.

It is important to note that the supply calculation is based solely on personal observations and estimates, not supported by hidden data from the game. Anyone can perform similar calculations independently.

We hope to see a great listing with a generous drop, similar to what Notcoin had.

Not Pixel is a significant step in the development of games in the Telegram Mini Apps ecosystem. If you enjoyed this article, share it with your friends or leave a comment!

See ya! <3