9. Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
9. Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.
So, according to the forecast put forward, the Sberbank market (#SBER) has completed its downward movement at the price level of 89.59, from which it will continue to move in the upward direction. In its ascent from the local minimum of 89.59, the market will reach the price level of 274.30 in the future.
Can we develop in detail a plan for the probable course of the future development of the price movement by drawing on the graph with dotted lines the types of Elliott wave figures in their specific form with the corresponding markings markings, as many so-called wave analysts do?
The answer is unequivocally that no.
We cannot draw waves that will form in the future.
In other words, we cannot tell the market what specific waves it will continue its ascent to the intended goal, the achievement of which relates to a future event.
To think otherwise would be to deceive ourselves. Because even if we imagine, determine, for example, that the market will move in an impulse wave, it is impossible to predict exactly which of the three types of momentum will be formed by the market. An impulse with a stretched 1st, 3rd or 5th wave?
This is also true for corrections.
For example, if we expect a correction, it is impossible to predict exactly what it will be, a standard or non-standard wave. If, let's assume that it will be standard, then what kind of wave. Zigzag, flat or triangle, and in which of their many variations will this correction be? Still remains unknown.
And if we assume a non-standard correction, then similarly to the above, we get the same set of indeterminate. Simply put, there are too many unknowns. That is why, at least, those graphs that depict color drawings of future Elliott wave figures with appropriate markings cause very serious doubts.
Unlike those who draw similar things on graphs, we know for sure, at least, what we do not know and it is not even possible to find out.
Therefore, we will leave the unknown to science fiction writers, and we ourselves will rely on the known, definite and established.
We use the above to develop an approximate plan for the most likely course of the future development of the market movement with an accurate specification of quantitative parameters for each stage of the forecasting process under consideration.
9.1 Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.
So, it is determined that the market has completed a downward movement at the level of 89.59 from 23.02.22 and will continue to move upward from it. Moving in an upward direction, the market reached its maximum at the level of 169.90 from 04.04.22.
We have a local minimum (89.59) and maximum (169.90). To continue the upward movement, the market needs to reach the level of 169.90 and cross it, thereby setting a new local maximum, which will be above the level of 169.90.
Thus, at the first stage of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the proposed forecast with a target level of 274.30, the market needs to form a new local maximum that will be above the level of 169.90.
Here is our forecast (in the generally accepted sense, i.e. for a wide audience) for Sberbank (#SBER): the market will reach and cross the price level of 169.90 in the future.
9.2 Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
After passing the above, the first stage, the market should continue to develop its upward movement (it is clear that with appropriate corrections).
How do I find out what the next price level the market should reach in the future?
As we have already described in detail above, in resolving such issues, it is necessary to rely on the known.
Schedule period: 1 bar - 3 days.
So, it is known that if the A-B-C zigzag in any of its varieties is completed, then the next market movement should, at least, reach the level of 61.8% (Fibonacci) of the pulse C-wave length of this zigzag and, as a rule, cross the specified level.
It is established that in our completed non-standard figure (↓388.11-89.59) consisting of two phases of corrections, the second phase or triple is an elongated zigzag A-B-C.
The named zigzag A-B-C is found to be completed.
Therefore, the next market movement in the future should, at least, reach the level of 61.8% of the C-wave length (281.00 from 16.02.22 - 89.59 from 24.02.22) of this A-B-C zigzag.
Having carried out the corresponding measurement, we determine the specified level of 61.8% of the C-wave (281.00-89.59), which in price terms gives such a value as 208.31.
Here is our forecast (as the word forecast is understood by the widest audience, i.e. the majority) for SBER (#SBER): the market in the future ↑will reach and cross the price level 208.31.
So, at the second stage of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the previously put forward forecast with a target level of 274.30, the market needs to reach and cross the target level of 208.31 in the future.
9.3 Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
Finally, at the third and final stage of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the proposed forecast with a target level of 274.30, the market needs to reach and cross this level in the future.
That is, the fact that the market has reached the level of 274.30 will indicate the complete completion of the process of confirming the fulfillment of the proposed forecast with the target level of 274.30, as well as the fulfillment of our forecast by 100%.
We remind you that the justification itself and the premises from which the conclusion is derived in the form of a forecast with a target level of 274.30 are detailed at the top, starting from the very first post, in the review of the results of the technical analysis.
Also, all the measurement results obtained during the analysis and indicated in the content of the posts are clearly shown on the graphs.
9.4. Forecast within the framework of the advanced forecast with a target price of 274.30.
So, according to the proposed forecast with a target level of 274.30, a plan has been developed for the most likely course of the future development of the market movement, with justification and precise specification of quantitative parameters for each stage of the forecasting process under consideration.
A short plan (in a collapsed form) of the forecast with a target level of 274.30:
1. At the first stage, the market needs to form a new local maximum. This is a target level that will be higher (at least by 1 tick) > 169.90.
2. At the second stage, the market needs to roll back ↑ by 61.8% (F) the C-wave ↓ (281.00-89.59) of the second zigzag. This is the target level of 208.31.
3. At the third and final stage, the market needs to roll back the entire double zigzag by 61.8% (F) (388.11-89.59). This is the target level of 274.30.