UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS SETUP
Every Thursday at 13:30 UTC the US publishes Unemployment Claims. Amateur traders try to catch the first move. Pros already know where they'll enter — because they built the plan before the release
📌 STAGE 1 — Pre-market analysis (must be done 1–2 hours BEFORE release)
This is 80% of the trade. Everything after the release is just execution
Step 1. Mark the daily bias
Open 4H and Daily on EUR/USD
Ask one question: "Is the market above or below the last daily key level?"
That gives you HTF bias — long or short by default
Step 2. Mark 3 key levels for the day
On 1H chart, mark:
— Previous day's high (PDH)
— Previous day's low (PDL)
— Nearest untested Order Block or FVG
— Key liquidity
📌 STAGE 2 — The release (13:30 UTC + 1)
The minute rule: do nothing for the first 1-3 minutes after release
What happens in these 5 minutes:
— Massive spike (30–60 pips) in one direction
— Immediate reversal on second candle
— Wicks on both sides catch every stop
— News-algos scan the number and reverse if it's context-dependent
Do not trade this. Every trader who enters here on the spike loses to the second wick.
Just watch. Note which side of the market reacted most
📌 STAGE 3 — Post-spike setup identification (13:32 )
Now the actual trading window opens. Watch for one of these three scenarios on 5m/15m:
⚜️Scenario A — Sweep + Reversal (most common, highest win-rate)
Price sweeps one of your pre-marked levels (PDH, PDL, or Asian swing) with a strong wick, then a rejection candle closes back inside.
→ Entry: on the close of the rejection candle
⚜️Scenario B — BOS + Retest (clean trend day)
Price makes a clear structural break on 15m in one direction, then pulls back to retest the broken level (that's your OB or FVG).
⚜️Scenario C — Range trap (avoid)
If 30 minutes after release price is still oscillating in a tight range with no clear structure — do not force a trade. Some claims days are just noise. Skip and wait for Friday.
❌3 mistakes that kill most Claims traders
- Entering the release candle
- Trading levels drawn AFTER the release
- Increasing size because "news = opportunity