Not Pixel Tokenomics
The minimum drop will be $97-$120!
The minimum drop will be $97-$120 without donation!
Part 1. Audience. Not Pixel users can be divided into four categories:
Not Pixel was released on September 24, and during this time the project has been consistently maintaining 20 million MAU.
The number 20 million can be considered a key indicator, since more than two months have passed since the release, and the statistics have been updated several times.
What do we know about these 20 million users?
At least some of them will be banned, since according to Pixel: ~5 million bots and accounts with farms were found.
It is doubtful that all five million are active. Most of them are probably associated with referral boosting services.
Roughly speaking, we can assume that only 10-20% of these accounts are associated with real farms, which is 500k-1kk users who will be blocked from those same 20 million MAU.
The active audience is about 15-25% of the total number of MAU. Such a small percentage of active players is not a problem for the project, but rather a general phenomenon of referral systems.
Referral links remain an important tool for attracting an audience, but they also create difficulties in the form of bots, distorted statistics, and a low percentage of active players (including paying ones). However, without a referral system, many users might not even know about the project, which makes the system a double-edged sword.
Part 2. Pharma Phase & Balance So who is an active user?
Let's calculate the balance of a player who logged into Not Pixel in the first days, meaning he spent about 67 days in the game:
Of these, he missed an average of 5% for any reason. (67*0.05)
The maximum energy value before the introduction of Check-ins was 24. (maximum pumping was achieved in a few days)
Recovery speed (at maximum pumping) = 1 Energy / 5 min =>
=> 24 Energy / 120 min (2 hours).
An active user could make 3-5 gaming sessions daily. (avg = 4)
For simplicity, we will calculate based on the last game economy, when the user received +12 PX for correct painting and +0 for incorrect.
If the player is not a bot, his accuracy is 70-80% of "correct" (+12 PX) shades
We get the formula for PX in one game session:
PX_Farmed_Per_Game = 12 <PX> * 24 <Energy> * [0.7 ; 0.8] <accuracy>
The user spent the following game days during the entire farming period:
67 <Days> - 67 <Days> *0.05% = 63.65 <Days>
All that's left is to add the total number of pixels received by the Claim mechanic.
We have a formula inside the game for this:
Each correctly filled pixel gives 0.1 PX to the Claim.
That is, on the first day with N filled pixels we will have ~N*0.1 PX per Claim.
For each subsequent gaming session you will add ~N*0.1 PX to the Claim, receiving for it already ~2*N*0.1 PX per Claim, etc.
An active user with 3-5 gaming sessions per day could receive 1-2 Claims per Day. (avg = 1.5 Claims per Day & 1 claim per 3 gaming sessions)
The general formula for Claim will look like this:
PX_Claimed = 3 * N <PX> * 0.1 + 2 * 3 * N <PX> * 0.1 + 3 * 3 * N <PX> * 0.1 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days> * 3 * N <PX> * 0.1, где N = PX_Farmed_Per_Game = 12 <PX> * 24 <Energy> * [0.7 ; 0.8] <accuracy>
The player's balance after 67 days of active play will be:
PX_Farmed_Per_Game * 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + PX_Claimed = PX_Farmed_Per_Game * 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 + 2 * 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 + 3 * 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days> * 3 * PX_Farmed_Per_Game <PX> * 0.1 = PX_Farmed_Per_Game * ( 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + 3 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days>)) =
= 12 <PX> * 24 <Energy> * [0.7 ; 0.8] <accuracy> * ( 4 <avg gaming sessions> * 63.65 <Days> + 3 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 1.5 <Claims per Day> * 63.65 <Days>))
No explanation:
Balance_Active_User = 24 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * ( 12 * 4 * 63.65 + 3 * 0.1 * (1 + 2 + 3 + ... + 1.5 * 63.65)) = [74309.76 ; 84925.44] PX
A user who has been checking in daily since November 4th will receive benefits in the form of additional items and increased energy.
How much does the balance differ between an active player and one who has been checking in daily?
The main difference is in the last 25 days. For a player who has not checked in, these days remain game days, but without additional bonuses (42 game days without checking in versus 25 days since the first check-in).
Thus, every 4 days a user with check-ins will receive +4 to the maximum energy reserve, unlike a simple player. And the final difference in accumulated items will be:
- 88 TNT - each of which provides 25 repaints
- 24 Energy Refills - each fully restores energy, which will provide 24/28/32/36/40/44 repaints, depending on the maximum energy reserve
- 88 Paint Barrels - each provides 9 repaints.
The approximate difference in efficiency is as follows:
Farmed_Diff = 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 4 * ( 21 + 17 + 13 + 9 + 5 + 1) PX = = [8870.4; 10137.6] PX
Claimed_Diff = 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 2 + ... + + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 1.5 * 4 + (4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 7 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1) + ... + (4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 2 * 1.5 * 4 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 1.5 * 4) + ... + (4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 31 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 25 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 19 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 13 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 7 + 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * 1.5)
Let's simplify the expression:
Claimed_Diff = 4 * 12 * [0.7 ; 0.8] * 3 * 0.1 * ((1 + 2 + ... + 31) + (1 + 2 + ... + 25) + + (1 + 2 + ... + 19) + (1 + 2 + ... + 13) + (1 + 2 + ... + 7) + 1) = = [11400.48 ; 13029.12] PX
The total difference for the active player will be: [20,270 ; 23,170] PX
Items based on preliminary estimates can provide additional: ~ ( 12 * 25 * 84 + 12 * 9 * 64 + 12 * 0.75 * 32 * 20) * 2.29 = 86,725 PX
Total: The total difference (on the 25th day of check-ins) will be: [106,995 ; 109,895] PX
We will approach the generated PX from in-game purchases from a slightly different angle when calculating supply further.
A quick summary:
So, we got portraits of 3 different players:
Active player - earned about ~83,000 PX Regular player - got ~23,000 PX Active player who completed all check-ins - earned ~190,000 PX Now let's calculate how much you can get for such a referral:
- You will get 16% of his Claim earnings only (and a little for league achievements), which means you will earn (for the game phase before the tournament):
- From the active player: PX_Claimed * 0.16 = ~ 4,000 PX From the regular player: ~ 1,120 PX
- And from the player who performed check-ins: ~ 11,000 PX
If you are an active player and you invited 2 active players and 9 regular players, your balance will be >100,000 PX, which allows you to qualify for a drop.
If you are a regular player, then to reach this goal it is enough to invite, for example, 4 players who performed check-ins, 5 active players and 10 regular players.
Please note that these calculations do not include donations, as well as bonuses from participating in events, such as riddles or events, such as pumpkin picking. These factors can significantly increase your PX income.
Part 3. Putting the supply together piece by piece To determine the volume of the supply, it is important to understand that not all players will be included in it, but only those who have reached the drop criterion (100k PX). This is good for the project's economy: the drop will be concentrated, and the supply will not be blurred among all users, including bots.
So how many such users are there?
Let's start with an estimate. Among active players without donations, as I mentioned earlier, there are about 1,000,000 people. However, not everyone will reach the drop, approximately 70-80% of the specified number. Players who regularly check in are almost guaranteed to receive an increased drop and will also be taken into account in the supply.
Their contribution will be approximately: [100,000,000,000 ; 110,000,000,000] PX
Influencers and referrals receive 16% of all farmed pixels (using Claim) of their referrals. For analysis, let's take statistics from other projects. For example, in Lost Dogs, about 94% of users were attracted through referral links. Let's assume that for Not Pixel this figure is 90%.
In total, the base volume of farmed tokens is added:
16% * Claimed * Audience * 90%
The total contribution of influencers and the referral system will add:
[12,800,000,000; 15,600,000,000] PX
Hypothesis: more than 90% of pixels earned through donations will go to supply, since donators often reach 100k PX. The average daily income from donations is estimated at $150k–$200k (personal estimate based on observing notpixel.ton), which for 67 days will be:
$10,050,000 – $13,400,000.
According to my calculations, every dollar spent in the game (avg taking into account discounts and other things) brings the player approximately 3000 PX. This allows us to assume that donations will add to supply:
[10,050,000 ; 13,400,000] * 0.9 * 3000 = [27,135,000,000 ; 36,180,000,000] PX
As a result, the total supply before the tournament: will be in the range:
[12,800,000,000 ; 15,600,000,000] PX + [27,135,000,000 ; 36,180,000,000] PX + [100,000,000,000 ; 110,000,000,000] PX = [139.94B ; 161.78B] PX
This is the approximate volume of tokens that can be expected before the start of the next phase of the game.
But this is not the end. Let's move on to the next game phase.
Part 4. Tournament
Tournament. All you need to know about it in terms of tokenomics is that the pool allocated to it is 50B $PX.
But is it that simple? Let's figure it out.
My hypothesis is as follows: all 50 B PX will go to supply, since the rewards are distributed among active users, donators and infls, and their balances, as we calculated above, are already either sufficient for the drop or close.
Of course, I believe that many players saw an opportunity in the tournament and started playing right now. I estimate that there are no more than 30-40% of such users. This means that about
0.94 × 50 000 000 000 PX × [0.3 ; 0.4]
It is important to understand how exactly these rewards will be distributed among the participants:
Template owners receive approximately 4-6% of the daily reward pool, based on the current distribution. This means that the rest will go to the most active players.
=> approximately 94% of 50,000,000,000 PX will be distributed among players, then we will calculate how many users will receive the rewards.
The number of templates decreases every day. If you remember the powers of two from school (2¹⁰ = 1024), then after 10 rounds we will know the finalist. However, the share of rewards distributed to template owners increases proportionally to the decrease in their number. This creates a balance between the reduction in the number of templates and the growth of rewards for users.
According to a rough estimate, more than 1,000,000 players will receive rewards. (taking into account the overlap between the winners of each round)
The impact of farming before and during the tournament
It is worth remembering that 30-40% of the rewards will go to regular players who were active during the tournament to bring their balance up to the required criteria. This means that these users with a balance in the range of [19,733; 23,194] PX will earn a significant share.
Here we are interested in calculating only the impact of the farmed balance before the tournament phase, because we have already taken into account the prize pool:
20000 * [0.3 ; 0.4] * 1 000 000 = [6 000 000 000 ; 8 000 000 000] PX
During the tournament, each correct repaint awards +4 PX, and players can continue to Claim, increasing the overall supply.
The farming of new pixels during the tournament can be estimated as
[5,000,000,000; 6,000,000,000] PX
Taking into account all the calculations, the updated supply will be:
[140 B; 162 B] PX + [61 B; 64 B] PX = [201 B; 226 B] PX
The final value still needs to be supplemented by the part that will be sent to the team, MM, and everything related to the Not Pixel listing.
In any case, it is worth expecting that the majority of tokens will be distributed among the players, and about 20-30% will go to development, marketing, listing and other needs.
Thus, the final supply will be: [252 B; 311 B] PX, depending on the distribution.
If you think that the team is taking a part for itself and this is bad, ask yourself:
Why not distribute 100%? Everyone would be happy!
However, I hasten to assure you that a team that altruistically distributes 100% of tokens is doomed to failure. Without investment in development, the project will have no future.
This means that your tokens will quickly depreciate, and the project without marketing, team and further development will not be interesting from the first day after listing. Not to mention the importance of MM and launch pools.
Part 5. Price Prediction
SO HOW MUCH IS ONE PIXEL?!
Let's start with our neighbors in our ecosystem.
How did other projects go this year?
Notcoin:
MarketCap at exit: $1 B ;
ATH $2.7 B ;
MarketCap now: $1 B.
Dogs:
MarketCap at exit: $872 M ;
ATH $872 M ;
MarketCap now: $400 M.
Catizen:
MarketCap at exit: $286 M ;
ATH $326 M ;
MarketCap now: $177 M.
Major:
MarketCap at exit: $105 M ;
ATH $126 M ;
MarketCap now: $101 M.
If you've been following the listings closely this year, you've probably noticed a clear progression in the smoothness of the exits themselves. The processes are becoming more and more optimized: bugs are fixed, experience is gained, participants are learning.
Pixel will be one of the final major launches this year.
It's worth focusing on the success of major projects launched this year, as well as the mood of the market and Not Pixel players:
With a favorable sentiment on the market and Pixel's release at the right moment (which we are seeing now), we can expect an average market capitalization of around $300+ million. The project is moving quickly, without having time to "boring" the audience, and at the same time generating income at the level (or even more) with those who spend six months preparing for the listing.
The supply will be small and focused on a loyal active audience. This means that the pressure on the market will be significantly lower than with some other projects (hello, "Hamster", lol). All this creates the preconditions for a positive exit, especially against the background of the general market sentiment.
The project did not lag in development, which distinguishes it from many competitors. The exit is fast, although not as rapid as Dogs, but at the same time the game mechanics and activities were diverse. This busy season most likely left positive impressions on the players. Pixel even allowed many to remember the good old pixel battle.
Oddly enough, most of the successful ideas implemented in Vk follow the course of Durov's team and his key brainchild - Telegram. This allows them to get a new life and greater success within the updated ecosystem.
With a positive market background and support from news about Pixel and the TON ecosystem, we can expect a market capitalization in the range of $ 600-800 million, which will probably be the ATH for the project.
Taking into account the supply in the range of [252 B; 311 B] PX, the predicted token price in the first days of release:
$[0.00096; 0.00119] => the minimum drop for players will be $97–$120!
When reaching ATH, the token price can reach:
$[0.00193; 0.00317], and the minimum drop of 100k PX will be estimated at $193–$318!
The magnitude of the error can be affected not only by approximations in calculations. Among other factors:
- unaccounted item giveaways
- achievements for beta testing
- rewards for template authors
- possible new game events that may affect the overall farm
- actual listing date, which is still unknown
- etc
It is important to note that the supply calculation is based solely on personal observations and estimates, not supported by hidden data from the game. Anyone can make similar calculations on their own.
We hope to see a great listing with a generous drop, similar to the one Notcoin had.
Not Pixel is a significant step in the development of games in the TMA ecosystem. If you liked this article, share it with your friends or leave a comment!
This article was written and translated based on the article by @arthur_yan. Thanks
Translation channel: @Bit_Realm
NotPixelBot: https://t.me/notpixel
NotPixelChanhel: https://t.me/notpixel_channel
My channel where I share all the information faster than anyone else, including NotPixel codes: https://t.me/Bit_Realm