XAUUSD weekly review (19.04 - 23.04)

On the trading week 12.04-16.04 an important event happened - gold broke out of the range of 1677-1760. Earlier I predicted such an outcome, but I confess that at some point I began to doubt this a little.

Another important event was that the XAUUSD pair closed above the border of the weekly cloud 1760.20. The long-term weekly trend still remains downtrend on the chart, however, the bears have obviously lost a significant part of their strength and the bulls are taking over the initiative.

Meanwhile, we have to keep in mind that the March monthly candle was still black and bears may appear on the market at any moment with renewed vigor.

Now I will try to give a technical picture and forecast for the upcoming period. Let's define the key support and resistance levels. We have a downtrend on the weekly chart and an uptrend on the daily chart. Thus, we will look for key resistance on the weekly chart, and key support on the daily chart. The most reliable way is the third candlestick line.

Daily Ichimoku says trading will take place in the cloud with some upward bias. The lower border of the cloud is 1737, the upper border is 1817. Obviously, if the cloud breaks upwards, the pair's tendency to rise may increase. However, a fall below the cloud level is likely to trigger a new wave of decline.

I often use the Ichimoku indicator as it is one of the most reliable and visual indicators. It is the most reliable for long and medium term trading.

Н4 chart. It is very interesting that since gold went out of the range, it turns out that now it should rise by the size of this range, that is, to the 1845 region! It is very difficult to believe in it, nevertheless ..

The method of setting a target on a range breakout is considered reliable, however, this method does not tell us exactly how the price will reach the target point.

To determine the weekly support and resistance levels, we will use the method of the previous weekly candlestick readings.

Conclusions based on the analysis results

Gold is likely to trade with an overall upward bias in the coming week as it closes above the key 1760 level, the weekly candle is strongly bullish. There is a possibility that the medium-term target is around 1845. In the range of 1800 - 1805 there is likely to be an accumulation of resistances, as well as an yearly pivot point. The key resistance is located at 1815.83, which also roughly coincides with the border of the daily cloud.

However, the weekly trend is still bearish, so sellers may be looking for an opportunity to activate. Key support is at 1732.40, however, even trading below 1760 could be the first warning signal for buyers.