Onchain Wizard - Whale Watching – 5/27/22
Wanted to share some brief bonus content of interesting on-chain movements for paid subs. Will include some funds and other wallets I follow, etc - importantly I’m sharing the wallet addresses here if you would like to continue watching some of these whales yourself. There are definitely some fun ones in here.
The high level overview is on-chain funds are flooding to stables, selling ETH and alt allocations have been cut materially. Anon whales have also cut most alts and are sitting in their highest conviction positions. Stablecoin allocations of “Smart Money” broadly are elevated, but not at all time high levels. Liquidity in most alts are now dangerously low. No one is coming to buy our bags anytime soon (in fact most seem to be running to the hills).
Three Arrows Capital:“Steady lads – deploying more capital” – except in reverse.
In the past few days 3AC appears to be heavily dumping ETH on centralized exchanges – in total these transactions look to be ~$40mm. If 3AC is dumping, who is going to buy the dip?
Transaction #1:0x4862733b5fddfd35f35ea8ccf08f5045e57388b3 – from this address you can watch 3AC send 13.4k ETH (or ~$23mm) to BitMEX (likely to dump).
Transaction #2:Same address in the past day sent 10k ETH (~$17mm) to FTX
Never a good sign when one of the largest on-chain funds is dumping - but hopefully we can catch when these wallets start buying again / taking on risk.
Stablecoin Holdings of Smart Money:Smart wallets (per Nansen) are holding a lot of cash (though still less than prior drawdowns). Frankly would have thought this number would be higher given the mass exit we’ve seen the past couple of weeks, and ~10% does not feel like a bottom (though UST going to zero potentially skews this figure).
Alameda:0xfa34bf9307f2f68a70b4369bb2f522b2b2bb222b – An Alameda wallet I’ve historically tracked has now sent $44m of ETH to this wallet. Will this be destined for CEX dumping as well?If you want more Alameda wallets you can follow the trail from this wallet to find a few!
0x84d34f4f83a87596cd3fb6887cff8f17bf5a7b83 –another large Alameda on-chain wallet is basically just holding stables / farming stables at this point. The risk appetite of on-chain funds seems quantifiably near zero.
Blocktower: 0x43adde52c6c142912662d3e427709db5cac9b811Another fund that appears to be stabled up, with no interesting near term moves. They have now stabled up to $5.2mm out of $6.8mm total (in this wallet). A connected wallet here is still holding some spot exposure to NXM and MKR (~$20mm in total). Nothing really interesting from a near term trading standpoint – lot of swaps to stables.
a16z - 0x66b870ddf78c975af5cd8edc6de25eca81791de1I’m not going to do a massive dive into all of the activity in here, but it does look like they had quite a lot of UST exposure leading into May 8th (at least $20mm). All transaction activity seems to be getting capital into stables (and sending it out), so nothing interesting in terms of new ideas – the same point remains: funds are flocking to stables (USDC and USDT) and do not have much risk appetite right now. Also seeing some of these UST swaps is just crazy.
Tetranode - 0x9c5083dd4838e120dbeac44c052179692aa5dac5Not afraid of risk or volatility, Tetra has taken a beating this year (I think this wallet was easily over $150m at its peak vs. down to $34mm now.) Largest positions for the Orca are:
Whenever a breath of risk comes back to alts, Tetra is a great wallet to watch (and I’m always in awe of his patience in some of these positions).
Amelisa.eth - 0x3c9002cdb61c56b89467d94a2d93235dfd698089This is a smaller anon whale that I’ve always watched for sharp alt plays. As a higher risk account, this is what my portfolio kind of looks like currently (and has not done well the last month!) Major positions are:
It will be interesting to see how some of these alts perform over the next few months.
0x1d3db45f912c74de554409c1ad0d27dbcb26b726This is one of the smarter alt coin wallets I followed into pure degen plays for awhile. Looks to have cut all alt allocations and is sitting in ETH.
Summary: most are not taking a risk-on stance in this environment (and neither should you). Funds are flocking to stables. Smart degen alt traders have consolidated their positions into ETH. Other anon whales are just chilling with very limited activity + are allocated to alts that they think will survive into the next cycle. I think its important to preserve capital in this environment, and only stick with investments where you have appropriate position sizes and high conviction. While brief, I hope you all enjoy this bonus content to see what whales are doing as we head into a holiday weekend (and hopefully this gives you a few wallets to watch for yourself).