фед и QT

В середине 2022 года ФРС сказала, что будет делать QT на 2.5 триллионов

В случае qt опасность заключается в том, что ФРС нужны рыночные потрясения, чтобы понять, что он зашел слишком далеко, как в 2019 году.

Первоначально qt отливает деньги из коммерческой банковской системы, которая переполнена ликвидностью; однако по мере ее продолжения ликвидность неуклонно сжимается, а расходы на финансирование банков могут взлететь без особого предупреждения.

The idea that a crunch is far away is supported by a look at the Fed’s liabilities. About $3trn are banks’ reserves (in effect deposits at the central bank). Another $2trn is money from firms which enter into exchanges with the Fed for Treasury securities (such overnight reverse-repurchase agreements, or reverse-repos, allow them to get a small return on their excess cash). Mr Waller has said that qt ought to run smoothly until bank reserves hit about 10% of gdp, when the Fed will slow its balance-sheet reductions to try to find the right size for the financial system. If reserves and reverse repos are interchangeable, as Mr Waller suggests, then reserves now amount to 19% of gdp, leaving plenty of room. Thus qt could roll on for another couple of years, taking a big bite out of the Fed’s balance-sheet in the process.

But problems may arise well before then. First, banks probably need more reserves than they did before covid-19 because their assets have expanded faster than the rest of the economy. Second, and crucially, reverse repos and reserves may in fact not be interchangeable. Much of the demand for reverse repos comes from money-market funds, which function as an alternative to bank deposits for firms seeking slightly higher returns. If that demand persists, the weight of qt will instead fall more heavily on bank reserves. In this scenario, reserves may run short before the end of this year, think strategists at T. Rowe Price, an investment firm. The Fed’s balance-sheet would be stuck at around $8trn, almost double its pre-pandemic level. This would fuel concerns about its ability to embark on qe in future.

Oddly, the debt-ceiling mess may conceal any ructions for the next few months. With the Treasury unable to borrow until Congress raises the debt limit, it is running down its cash holdings at the Fed. As money leaves the Treasury’s account, much ends up in the banking system, which in turn helps banks to replenish reserves.

But when Congress does get around to raising America’s debt ceiling, the Treasury will need to ramp up its borrowing. For banks this may mean a rapid loss of reserves. The Fed has created a lending facility to relieve such squeezes. There is, though, no telling how it will perform in the wild, adding yet more uncertainty to the course of qt. The market may be placid for now. It is unlikely to stay that way.