BULL OR BEAR MARKET?
Most market participants are currently confused about what's happening, especially those with spot positions.
In the past few days, we've analyzed over a hundred different on-chain metrics for each fundamental asset to provide a clear answer to the main question.
$BTC
Bitcoin stands out as the strongest among the other fundamentals, with most of the main liquidity from funds concentrated in it.
In simple terms, the anomaly on the chart below indicates that many people bought BTC at a significantly higher price, and now the owners of these Bitcoins are at a loss.
The chart with this metric shows that up until now, profit realization occurred exclusively at market highs. However, it has now happened during a downturn, which may indicate partial or complete capitulation of a large player who had been holding a position at lower prices.
While ETFs, which bought at much lower prices and started realizing their profits, the other side of the market — those who bought at the highs with lofty targets — have capitulated.
Capital inflows into Bitcoin continue, but the downward trend is still present, despite the large influx of stablecoins into exchanges.
This metric further confirms that the pressure on the order book continues, and there is no talk of accumulation. The metric is applicable to both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
$ETH
Speculators who decided that a 23% drop from the highs was a sufficient correction to buy the dip.
The price at which a large amount of Ethereum from the total supply was purchased and withdrawn to wallets.
It’s not worth buying during a bear market above this price.
Additionally, we see that the average on-chain coin movement prices are significantly lower than the current levels, which confirms the risk of dropping below these zones if the market enters a full-scale bear market, rather than just a small correction.
The average purchase price of Ethereum for staking is $2500, while the average deposit price is $2600.
$2600-$2800 — the range where old hands were anomalously shaken out.
In simple terms, large players always buy old coins, waiting for this moment. If this process happens at market highs, the absorption of this volume takes place at the expense of retail liquidity. However, if it occurs at lows, it indicates the capitulation of large participants.
Ethereum has transitioned from a capital inflow phase to an outflow phase, indicating that the downtrend persists. To consider entering positions, it is necessary to wait for a recovery in the inflow trend.
$SOL
$200 — the price at which a large amount of retail investors are currently sitting at -40% on Solana, and below which speculators started to experience huge unrealized losses.
(Unlike Ethereum, we have fallen below the realized price, which reflects a decline in dominance and indicates outflows from this asset.)
$125 — the price at which only 20% of coins on-chain are in profit, indicating clear capitulation and the strong hands who bought at $80, $90, and $100.
$USDT, $USDC
Capital inflows in the form of stablecoins during the peak of the last wave ($115K-$126K) were almost half of what they were in December when the price broke $100K, and less than in March 2024, when the price broke $70K.
An interesting fact is that the same occurred in the previous cycle. While the second wave did result in a new high at $69K, it happened during maximum capital and liquidity outflows.
$BNB
An interesting fact is that anomalous network profits coincide with local/global highs for $BNB.
This doesn’t mean that network profits are immediately offloaded onto the market, but rather, when the peak of narratives (listings, alpha, meme cycles, etc.) aligns with BSC, we are at a key point.
Anomalous network profitability is considered when it reaches 7000 BNB or higher per day.
Conclusions:
Bitcoin
At the moment, BTC is the strongest in the market by many indicators:
- The realized price of BTC is significantly lower than that of ETH, SOL, and other assets.
- Purchases and withdrawals of BTC from exchanges also occurred at much lower levels.
- Long-term holders are doing well, unlike speculators.
- Retail has accumulated quite high, above $110K, while ETFs decided to offload part of their spot positions for profit, causing weak hands to capitulate into losses. As a result, the metrics showed anomalous profitability and also anomalous losses at the same time.
- Miners, however, have not capitulated since the last global high of $126K.
Average market entry price for BTC = $56K, where the largest accumulations and ETF liquidity work occurred.
Can we say that $80K is the global bottom for BTC? Definitely not, as most indicators have not reached capitulation levels. For that, we would need to correct to below $56K.
Whether ETFs will allow this to happen remains an open question.
Ethereum
Currently, ETH is much stronger than SOL but weaker than BTC.
- The realized price for stakers is $2500-$2600. The market has effectively dropped to the average entry point for stakers.
- Speculators' TVH (Total Value Held) = $3900 (-25% from the current price).
- Long-term holders' TVH = around $2450-$2500.
Outflows continue, and the buyer base remains weak, with only local strength observed. Across all metrics, it is too early to consider $2600 as the global bottom, and it doesn't quite fit the market model where excess liquidity is offloaded before further movement. Therefore, we are more likely to see a small bounce before continuing the downward movement.
The question: How big this bounce will be directly depends on BTC.
Globally, based on current conditions, it is not advisable to accumulate for long-term market performance, as the $2500 zone and below mark the start of capitulation for many market participants.
Against the backdrop of major fundamentals, Solana is currently weaker than all other assets, even BNB. Outflows from Solana continue, as the meme trend, which has primarily driven SOL purchases, is gradually fading.
This is evident from the following metrics:
- The number of migrations is decreasing.
- The creation of new memes is declining.
- Trading volumes on platforms are falling.
The average market price is around $150, which confirms that Solana has entered the beginning of the capitulation zone—something that hasn’t occurred yet with other fundamental assets (BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, TRX).