September 27, 2023

Bear Market Vs Uniswap 

Who Holds the Upper Hand ?

What is Uniswap


Uniswap is a non-custodial exchange protocol built on Ethereum. Uniswap was founded by Hayden Adams and launched in 2018.

How does Uniswap work


Liquidity providers deposit funds into Uniswap and receive trading fees from traders (supply-side fees).

Who governs Uniswap


UNI tokenholders own and govern the protocol. They do not currently take a cut of the total trading fees paid by traders (revenue). Uniswap's investors include Paradigm, a16z, USV, etc.

Crypto Winter Trends & Analysis

What exactly is Crypto Winter ?

The “crypto winter” act as period of prolonged low prices pursuant to significant declines. There are perhaps two such winters that have occurred since the “mainstreaming” of cryptocurrencies began.

The first occurred after December, 2017, following a steep rise in the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum over that year. The second occurred after Q1 2022, following broad declines across all asset classes.

Crypto winters are characterized by a seemingly long period of lethargic sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. In the 2017-18 winter, the price remained somewhat lackadaisical until the stimulus of Covid-19 occurred in Q1 2020. This stimulus boosted incomes and thus financial experimentation, particularly among retail users who delved with digital finance in both crypto and stock markets.

The winding down of that stimulus in 2022, following interest rate hikes by the fed, led to a significant decline of -67% in the price of Bitcoin, putting it closer to the 2017 level of roughly $20,000 from the peak at $69,000.

Silicon Valley Bank, Zero Knowledge L2s, and wallet hacks helped define the narrative in the first quarter or 2023. Here are some insights on defining moments in the first 3 months!

Uniswap Sets Record Trading Vol. After Silicon Valley Bank Collapse

On March 11th, one day after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and takeover by the FDIC, trading volume of Uniswap’s decentralized exchange hit ATHs.

  • $25B - highest trading volume day in history on March 11th, 2023
  • $77M - total trading fees earned by liquidity providers (LPs) in March
  • 35% - the total volume of Uniswap volumes happening on L2s

The elevated trading volumes on Uniswap was largely driven by traders selling USDC and buying other stablecoins like USDT (Tether) and DAI because ~$3 billion worth of assets that backed USD Coin were held in Silicon Valley Bank.

Uniswap trading volume for Q1 2023 highlighting the ATH after the SVB collapse

Market Pulse :

Events & Winter Effect on Uniswap

The realm of decentralized finance (defi) is grappling with the aftermath of the sweeping crypto market slump that marked the close of August. As it stands, the total value locked (TVL) in defi, pegged at $37.59 billion, has plummeted to a low last witnessed in the second week of February 2021.

The total value locked in defi isis on a steady decline, and as of September 1, 2023, it’s teetering at roughly $37.59 billion. Rewinding to February 9, 2021, this was the last time the TVL stood at such a level, right before it surged to its record peak.

By May 11, 2021, it swelled to an impressive $121 billion, and by November 8, 2021, it soared to a staggering $178 billion. Although there was a brief resurgence to $161 billion on April 2, 2022, the TVL has been in a consistent descent since the all-time high.

The total value locked (TVL) in defi on Sept. 1, 2023, is at a low not seen since February 2021.

As of the first of September this year, LIDO reigns supreme as defi’s leading protocol by TVL, boasting a $14.06 billion TVL. Hot on its heels are Makerdao, Aave, Justlend, and Uniswap, completing the top-tier quintet of defi protocols based on TVL size. Makerdao stands at $5.05 billion, Aave at $4.49 billion, Justlend at approximately $3.33 billion, and Uniswap close behind with about $3.27 billion this weekend.

Uniswap Performance in the Turmoil

beyond the scaling of its core business, Uniswap has also adopted a horizontal growth approach, launching a wallet and wading into the aggregation market with UniswapX, which leverages off-chain orders, allowing the free market to compete to fill bids.

Uniswap’s early mover advantage perfectly showcases the ability of the market incumbent to compound its gains. And in the bear market, as forks and clones die off, the advantages of being a market leader have magnified in intensity.

Despite possessing no unique defensibility, Uniswap reigns supreme in the DEX landscape. Trading volumes trended upwards for the first half of 2023 and have remained steady since June. This year, Uniswap’s Spot Trading Volume has exceeded Coinbase’s. A perfect microcosm of the trend toward decentralized service providers – easily observable when comparing DEX to CEX spot trading volume.

DEX Activity Based on Network Effect :

The role of network effects in public chain competition is very obvious. It is represented in the ecological flywheel that enhances the number of users, the number of developers, and capital size reinforce each other. Numerous “Ethereum killer” public chains were all falling under this powerful rule.

Network effects also exist in multilateral user markets such as trading and lending platforms. On Uniswap, the larger the trading volume, the more market makers will be attracted to make the market to provide liquidity. On the other hand, the improvement in market-making depth will in turn increase the user stickiness of traders, so as to achieve mutual reinforcement.

However, due to the open source nature of blockchain projects and the rise of liquidity mining, new projects can use Fork project code + mining subsidies to attract users and market makers of existing projects. SushiSwap uses this approach to catch up with Uniswap, which was previously considered to have strong network effect.

A large number of new Dex on BSC also challenge PancakeSwap in a similar way. However, it turns out that the success rate of this approach is getting lower and lower. Uniswap and Pancake are still the Dex with the highest number of active users on Ethereum and BSC respectively. The moat built by network effects helps them resist a certain degree of attack.

BIG PLAYERS DURING CRYPTO WINTER

still in the game ?

Key Points

TVL Fluctuations in DeFi: The Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi is a key metric reflecting the state of the ecosystem. It has experienced fluctuations, reaching a recent low of $37.59 billion in September 2023, a level last seen in February 2021.

Uniswap's Competitive Ranking: In the DeFi TVL hierarchy, Uniswap stands strong, closely following the leading protocols like LIDO, Makerdao, and Aave. Uniswap's TVL hovers around $3.27 billion, solidifying its position.

Horizontal Growth Strategy: Uniswap's strategy extends beyond its core business, with the introduction of a wallet and the foray into the aggregation market through UniswapX. This approach demonstrates its adaptability.

Network Effects in DEX: Uniswap's dominance in the decentralized exchange (DEX) landscape is a testament to the power of network effects. As trading volumes rise, more market makers are drawn to provide liquidity, enhancing user experiences.

Challenges from Competitors: While network effects provide a moat, Uniswap faces challenges from competitors like SushiSwap and new DEXs on different blockchains. Despite the rise of forks and clones, Uniswap maintains its position as a leader.

In conclusion, Uniswap’s commitment to decentralization, governance by tokenholders, and adaptability have allowed it to weather the crypto winter and remain a prominent DeFi protocol. Its enduring popularity and ability to navigate challenging market conditions highlight the resilience of decentralized finance in the broader blockchain landscape.