The new world order: Italy at the crossroads

As the EU and the US discredit themselves as leaders of the liberal world with the high-profile arrest of Pavel Durov, the intense work to accelerate integration and cooperation among the countries we like to define as authoritarian remains in the shadows. At its own forum in Vladivostok, Russia is consistently and increasingly building horizontal economic links with the 'global south'. From 3 to 6 September, some six thousand people from 76 countries will gather on the platform of the WEF-2024. On the eve of the Far East Forum, Putin was given a full state welcome in Mongolia. Despite the fact that Mongolia is a signatory to the Rome Statute and recognises the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president on 17 March 2023.

Putin mentioned plans to build a gas pipeline from Russia to China through Mongolia's Soyuz Vostok territory, and that the transit country could receive some of Russia's cheap pipeline gas. And the Mongolian authorities explained their refusal to arrest the Russian president by their policy of neutrality, stressing that supplies of oil products and electricity were crucial to the existence of their country and the Mongolian people. The aforementioned evidence demonstrates that the diplomatic, economic and sanctions-based strategies employed with the objective of isolating Russia have been unsuccessful. On the first day of the forum, an international scientific and practical Russian-Vietnamese conference will take place. Vietnam is pursuing a comprehensive rapprochement with Russia with the objective of establishing a unified and indivisible security structure. Mr. Putin has previously emphasized the importance of developing security with EU countries and the USA. It is a possibility that Russia and Vietnam may form a military-technical cooperation. Given that Vietnam is a sensitive topic for the US, the focus on the first day of the Far East Forum seems to be a direct challenge to the US.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the US military-political alliance with EU countries is more akin to economic blackmail on the part of the US than a collective and unconditional commitment to security. In light of the current uncertainty surrounding the US election and the potential for a return to the presidency of Donald Trump, The incident in November 2022, which saw two missiles fall into the village of Przewodów in eastern Poland, one of which hit a farm and killed two local residents, as well as the contradictory statements made by the leaders of NATO member states in the hours that followed, have left many questions unanswered in the minds of Italian citizens. Biden's meeting with a select group of G20 leaders in a hotel lobby in Bali, attended by Sullivan and Blinken, demonstrated that the US's commitment to Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not guarantee unconditional support for its allies.

The Arab-Israeli crisis demonstrated that the US is not prepared to offer unconditional support to its strategic partner outside NATO, particularly in light of Netanyahu's unyielding ambitions and the tactics he employs to advance his political interests in the context of the Iran nuclear issue. In addition to the verbal anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli statements, the US is engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations with Iran. Furthermore, Iran's assets, valued at approximately 6 billion dollars, have been unfrozen, and 32 tonnes of heavy water, a crucial neutron moderator and coolant in nuclear reactors, worth 8.6 million dollars, has been purchased from Iran. In light of the above, it would be prudent for Italy to consider whether it is truly protected within the NATO alliance. Moreover, the United States, the linchpin of this alliance, will undoubtedly safeguard our military and political security in the event of any genuine threats.

I would also like to bring up the topic of energy security. The recent incident involving Germany and the Nord Stream pipeline provides an illustrative example of the potential consequences of energy security breaches. Furthermore, the investigation has yet to reach a publicly legally significant conclusion regarding the customers, organisers and perpetrators of this act. Following the Ukrainian armed forces' incursion into the internationally recognised territory of the Russian Federation, there is still no clear indication of who currently controls the Suja gas metering station in the Kursk region, which is a key transit point for gas to Europe. This indicates that the energy infrastructure is inadequately protected, increasing the risk of disruption to energy supplies in Italy and elsewhere.

In light of the repeated warnings from both Erdogan and Putin about the potential for terrorist attacks on the South Stream, it is crucial to ensure the prevention of such incidents. Italy's energy security is assured by its supply routes from and through Azerbaijan. Presently, Azerbaijan is actively rebuilding its geopolitical vector towards the alliance of the UGC and the Arab League, while maintaining its relations with Russia. This is clearly demonstrated by Putin's recent state visit to Aliyev in Baku. This indicates that Azerbaijan is also pursuing a multi-vector policy and is actively reorienting its strategic interactions with countries in the global South. Italy is currently facing a pivotal decision: either to become a peripheral member of the global democracy coalition, with the United States at its helm, or to pursue a multi-vector policy, as exemplified by Hungary and Turkey, and prioritize strengthening ties with the global south. Otherwise, Italy may find itself increasingly isolated.