The greatest air battle of the 21st Century [Expert View]
We publish an expert view of Frank Ledwidge, who agreed to present us his assessment of the situation of the war in Ukraine. The text will be published in Molfar's daily military analytics on our Medium channel. The text of the author is published without changes.
The greatest air battle of the 21st Century is being fought, the battle of Ukraine
In some ways it is redolent of the 20th Century’s most epic air encounter, the Battle of Britain of 1940 in which the British Royal Air Force fought off the German air force and dished out the first serious defeat to the Nazi war machine. In both cases a greatly outnumbered defending force denied command of the air to more numerous, formidable attacking forces.
In both cases, the defenders were fighting on and above their homeland- every British and Ukrainian defending pilot, maintenance engineer, radar operator and commander knew that there was nowhere to retreat to, and that they stood between a vicious, brutal enemy and their own people and homes. British and Ukrainian defenders relied, and rely on extremely well-trained personnel who had been prepared for exactly the kind of battle they were to fight over several years. In the British case, most of the enemy casualties were caused by the fighter pilots, who are still known as ‘The Few’. In Ukraine’s case, it is predominantly the missile crews causing the Russian air and space force to think again.
However, in both cases the edge lay not in the front line units. Luftwaffe aircrews were very well-trained and combat experienced; their equipment was first class and their tactics highly effective. The Russian VKS also had experience from previous conflicts, though never really against competent opposition. Their pilots too were were relatively well-trained and some of their aircraft are first rate - far more modern than the old jets of the Ukrainian PSU. Few if any air power experts gave the Ukrainians much of a chance.
The secret in both cases was the system, not the aircraft for the British or the missiles for the Ukrainians. The RAF in 1940 operated the first ‘Integrated AIr Defence System’ or IADS, and it was the system, not the pilots that won the battle. Today an IADS is composed of radars for early warning, secure and hardened communications, computers for integration and a centralised command to ensure the right resources are dedicated to the right task. Excellent maintenance and engineering expertise is absolutely vital. Almost all advanced countries have IADS. However, no country could have prepared more efficiently in terms of the vital element of resilience than Ukraine. This is not something that can be done in a few months. This is the work of years of study of previous campaigns, experience and training, training, training.
The Battle of Britain ended after three hard months, with the British holding the skies. it was a very close run thing; had the German strategic leadership made some better decisions, the battle could easily have gone the other way . Time very much worked to the British advantage, as the long summer of 1940 ended and winter skies closed in. This Battle of Ukraine has only just started and the expert missile, radar and ground and aircrews have a long way to go. They must hope for two things. First, that they learn faster than the Russians. Second, that they are permitted to replace their considerable losses and improve the quality of their equipment.
Talk last week of the Americans donating US Patriot anti-aircraft systems is all very well. It will a long time to train crews and to integrate these world-class systems into Ukraine’s IADS. I have no doubt that hard decisions are being taken right now. A heavy toll is being taken of Russian aircraft and precision missiles. However, attrition works both ways. In the air and on the ground time is of the essence, and civilians in Ukraine will pay a high price for prevarication in Washington DC. Time came to the rescue of the RAF in 1940. Time is Ukraine’s enemy today.