MARKET BIAS -21.10–25.10.2024 BTC/USDTÐ/USDT.
Macro
Key macroeconomic data releases expected next week include:
• US Initial Jobless Claims
• US Flash Manufacturing PMI
• US Flash Services PMI
BTC/USDT:
Analysis of the monthly timeframe continues to indicate buyer dominance. Last week, the price reached our initial target of 66,441, with no subsequent correction. This suggests increasing buyer presence in the market and a lack of significant selling pressure. The absence of a corrective phase further reinforces the strength of the current uptrend. Our next target will be the internal liquidity zone at 70,081.
The weekly candle appears strongly bullish. A close today within the 67,500-68,500 range would significantly increase the probability of reaching the 70,081 target without deep corrections.
On the daily timeframe, I anticipate two equally likely scenarios:
1. From the current position, we move to capture internal liquidity at the 70,081 level, followed by a period of short-term consolidation before continuing the upward movement to retest the all-time high at 73,949.
2. From the current position, we capture internal liquidity at 70,081 and then correct to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire structural move, capturing internal liquidity at 64,756.
Therefore, my focus will be on price action at and after the 70,081 level.
ETH/USDT:
Ethereum's outlook has improved considerably compared to last week. There's a strong likelihood of an imminent move to capture internal liquidity at the 2729 level.
On the weekly timeframe, we'll be closely monitoring price action following the anticipated capture of liquidity at the 2729 level. My primary expectation is for a minor correction and a continuation of the upward trend after reaching this zone. However, it's important to remember that 2729 represents the upper boundary of a trading range, which could theoretically lead to a move towards the lower boundary at 2114.
On the daily timeframe, the 2532 internal liquidity level will serve as a critical support zone. A strong reaction and buying activity at this level will significantly increase the likelihood of a continued upward move, regardless of whether the price reaches it before or after capturing liquidity at 2728.
This concludes our analysis. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week to inform your trading decisions.
Wishing you profitable trades, and of course, remember the importance of sound risk management — it’s the foundation of trading success.