MARKET BIAS -14.10–18.10.2024 BTC/USDTÐ/USDT.
Macro
This week is expected to be relatively quiet on the macroeconomic news front, lacking a significant catalyst for major market moves. Investor focus will likely center on US retail sales data, providing insights into consumer spending trends, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision. These two data points could influence market direction in the short term.
BTC/USDT:
Analysis of the monthly timeframe continues to suggest strong bullish momentum. The primary upside target for the current month is the inner liquidity zone around the 66,441 level. A decisive break and close above this level could pave the way for further upward price action. However, it's crucial to acknowledge potential downside risks and monitor evolving market conditions.
• Weekly:
The past week witnessed significant volatility and manipulative price action in the market. Our previous analysis outlined two potential scenarios: continued upward momentum following a brief consolidation phase, or a downside move towards the 59,000 area to absorb inner liquidity and test the 50% retracement level of the prior structural move. The market ultimately opted for the latter scenario. A decisive close above the 62,790 level this week is crucial for confirming the ongoing bullish trend. Such a close would establish a foundation for further upside and mitigate the risks of a deeper corrective pullback.
We have identified three potential zones for bullish setup formations:
1. Inner liquidity grab zone at 62,463: This area is attractive to buyers as it represents a concentration of sell-stop orders, the triggering of which could fuel upward momentum.
2. Test of the 0.5 daily imbalance at 61,874: This zone is significant from a market balance perspective and may attract buyers seeking to restore equilibrium.
3. Test of the Sell-to-Buy zone with overlapping daily imbalance at 61,304: This area is characterized by a shift in initiative from sellers to buyers and could serve as a strong support level.
It is crucial to emphasize that long entries should be confirmed by corresponding price action signals and volume analysis.
ETH/USDT:
The asset's price continues to consolidate on the monthly timeframe. I anticipate increased investor interest, decreased Bitcoin dominance, and a flow of liquidity into Ethereum, potentially leading to a breakout and a new trend.
On the weekly chart, the preferred scenario is continued consolidation followed by an uptrend. Given Ethereum's weakness, a move down to 2114 to grab liquidity can't be ruled out. For now, consolidation and growth are the primary focus
The daily timeframe clearly shows price action within a defined range. As previously mentioned, continued consolidation is expected at this stage, without testing the lower boundary. A resolution is anticipated soon, and it's important to consider two scenarios: a breakout above the range or a test of the lower boundary.
This concludes our analysis. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week to inform your trading decisions.
Wishing you profitable trades, and of course, remember the importance of sound risk management — it’s the foundation of trading success.