MARKET BIAS -09.12–13.12.2024 BTC/USDTÐ/USDT.
Macro
This week will see the release of key US macroeconomic data. The focus will be on inflation figures (CPI and Core CPI), industrial production (PPI and Core PPI), and jobless claims. Expected values suggest moderate inflation and a stable labor market. The results of these publications could significantly impact the dynamics of the US dollar and, consequently, the cryptocurrency market. Close monitoring of data releases and their impact on market sentiment is advised.
BTC/USDT
This week, Bitcoin surpassed last month's high and the key psychological level of $100,000 – a long-awaited event. Following this impulsive global surge, identifying factors that will drive further price increases is crucial. Two main scenarios are possible: positive news (significant events) or a correction. Given the prolonged wait for the $100,000 level, many investors may refrain from buying at the current price. No new target levels are currently being discussed publicly.
The current weekly candle looks like a sweep after breaking the $100,000 level. A close below $100,000 will likely lead to a correction and retest of the $89,422 level.
Last week, two possible market scenarios were identified. Despite the price breaking through the upper range boundary, current daily chart dynamics indicate a continuation of the sideways trend. A subsequent attempt at an impulsive move towards the lower range boundary failed. In line with the previous forecast, a correction to $89,422 is still expected if the price closes below $100,000. In the absence of a correction, there are no obvious entry points for long positions. A more detailed analysis of supporting and refuting factors is needed – this will be the focus of next week's analysis.
ETH/USDT:
Further growth in the Ethereum price is expected. Reaching the first target level of $4098 seems highly likely.
The weekly timeframe shows confident upward momentum. However, identifying and opening long positions is advisable after the price reaches $4098.
Analysis of the daily timeframe suggests two possible scenarios:
1. If the strong bullish narrative continues, the price will surpass $4098, followed by a correction to the $3800-$3500 range, and then a resumption of the uptrend towards $5000.
2. After reaching $4098, the price may enter a consolidation phase, followed by a retest of the $3018 zone, and only then resume the uptrend towards $5000.
Updates throughout the week to inform your trading decisions.
Wishing you profitable trades, and of course, remember the importance of sound risk management — it’s the foundation of trading success.