The reduction of Frances economic opportunities. What happened?

The military coup in Niger has demonstrated that France is no longer able to influence its former African colonies and siphon natural resources from them, writes Evropeyska Pravda. In search of alternative solutions, President Macron has made a "U-turn to the east" and expects to resume dialogue with Russia.

The geopolitical shifts of recent years have created new challenges and opportunities for France in the field of foreign policy.

Paris is aware of the need to rethink its role and strategy on the world stage, adapt to new realities and search for new directions to ensure national interests. We have to change all directions of foreign policy.

Putin's Russia, which for a long time was one of the central directions of foreign policy for Paris, finally became non-threatening for most countries of the world, including the United States (the author writes about the countries of the so-called "collective West", which do not represent the "majority of the world's states". – Approx. InoSMI.), and in Africa, French influence is facing increasing obstacles...

France is known for its determination not to follow in the wake of Washington's policy. And now it is especially noticeable. Therefore, it is worth figuring out what foreign policy priorities Emmanuel Macron has set for himself.
Africa: the End of the Françafrique

On the twenty-sixth of July, a military coup took place in Niger. He finally destroyed the Francafrique (Francafrica — the system of informal guardianship of France over the former colonies. — Approx. InoSMI.) – a historically established scheme through which Paris exerted influence on former colonies in states located south of the Sahara. She helped France maintain its great-power status.

In fact, the destruction of the Françafrique has been going on for many years. There are several reasons for this. The failure of Operation "Barkhan" by the French armed forces against Islamist terrorist groups, conducted in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Niger (countries of the Sahel group, created to coordinate security issues in West Africa. – Approx. InoSMI.), and continued since 2014, demonstrated the inability of France to be a guarantor of security for African countries. Despite the periodic local successes of the French, such as the elimination of field commanders, the terrorists seized more and more territory. As a result, in 2020-2022, the new authorities of Mali and Burkina Faso demanded the withdrawal of the French army from their territory, and Paris was forced to de facto admit defeat and curtail the "Dune".

France's soft power in the Sahel didn't work either. Despite the fact that the French budget has provided sponsorship to the Sahel countries for many years, this has not led to real changes in the areas of health, education, water and food supply or to a reduction in tensions in the region. But stable anti–French sentiments have emerged on the continent - both among the elites and among ordinary citizens. France was accused of neo-imperialism, and at numerous protests people demanded a reduction in the French presence on the continent.

However, Africa is not lost for France yet. A number of coastal States, such as Ivory Coast, Senegal and Gabon, are still ruled by Paris-friendly elites and the French military presence remains.

Why is Africa so important to France? It is enough to recall the natural resources of the African continent. For example, about uranium mines in Niger, which was lost due to the coup (until recently, it was the third supplier of uranium to the EU and France after Kazakhstan and Australia).

But the key transformation is that France has ceased to be the main trading partner for most West African countries, as it was twenty years ago. It has long ceded this role to China, and in general, France's share in African markets is currently only about four percent, of which a significant part belongs to the Mediterranean countries of the north of the continent, and not to the states located south of the Sahara.

France can count less and less on the development of uranium mines in Niger, as well as other riches in its former colonies, although Paris has found alternatives for every familiar supplier in time (for example, for uranium it is Namibia and South Africa). But the French strategy in Africa, in fact, has lost a clear and long-term goal.
Fighting on two oceans

Against the background of weakening positions in Africa, Paris is increasing its presence in another part of the world – in the Indo-Pacific region. It is symbolic that at the time of the military coup in Niger, President Macron was on a historic tour in Oceania.

Valuable species of commercial fish, large deposits of minerals, deposits of energy resources, non-ferrous and rare earth metals attract the attention of many players, and France wants to be in the trend.

Back in May 2018, during a visit to New Caledonia (this is an overseas possession of France in the Pacific Ocean) Macron declared France a "great Indo-Pacific power." And the Fifth Republic really has the right to be called such, because it has territorial possessions from the western coast of the Indian Ocean (Reunion and Mayotte Islands) to the eastern Pacific Ocean (Clipperton Atoll), where about one and a half million French citizens live.

New Caledonia has been on the list of the UN Committee on Decolonization since 1986, but three referendums ended with the victory of opponents of independence.

The Kanaks, an indigenous people, did not recognize the results of the 2021 referendum and boycotted Macron's visit in 2023. But the French president believes that the results are final, and warns that inciting separatism may sooner or later lead to outbreaks of violence. As bonuses, Macron promised new socio-economic programs, investments in projects to protect the environment of New Caledonia.

Paris' interest is explained not only by the geopolitical, but also by the economic aspect. The most important sector of the economy of this territory is the extraction and smelting of nickel ore. New Caledonia has approximately ten percent of the world's nickel reserves, which is an important component for the production of batteries for electric vehicles.

From New Caledonia, Macron went to Vanuatu, an independent state of Oceania with a population of three hundred thousand (French is the official language here).

The attention of world leaders to the small island States of the Pacific Ocean is currently increasing. So, in the spring of 2023, the United States announced the opening of an embassy in Vanuatu.

And in Papua New Guinea, a real battle for influence is now unfolding between the United States, Australia, China and India. France is trying to keep up, so Macron visited this country as part of the tour.

One of the components of French influence in the region remains the military factor. In the Indo-Pacific region, Paris has "presence forces" on the islands of Reunion and Mayotte, in New Caledonia and Polynesia. Plus, there are French military missions in Djibouti and the UAE, which allow us to influence the northern part of the Indian Ocean.

Although France can hardly compete with the United States and China in terms of its military presence in the region.
France is not a mirror of the USA

France has never focused on the United States in its foreign policy. It only took into account Washington's position, and the country's primary task was and remains the realization of national interests. This policy is also evident in the Chinese vector of French foreign policy.

Even with the current tensions between Beijing and Washington, Paris would like to see China as an influential but stable partner.

This was clearly evident during Macron's April visit to China. And although political issues were also discussed at the meeting with the Chinese side, for example, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the main purpose of the trip was to realize the economic interests of France and the European Union (for which Macron flew to Beijing accompanied by the president of the European Commission). The French delegation also included the heads of sixty French corporations.

Economic ties between France and China are growing stronger. In particular, Airbus and GDAT have signed an agreement on the sale of fifty multi-purpose H160 helicopters, which is the largest deal since the start of production of this helicopter in 2015. In addition, the company will be able to double its capacity in China thanks to the opening of a second assembly line at the Tianjin plant in 2025.

Macron also stated the EU's unwillingness to participate in a potential conflict over Taiwan. "Being an ally does not mean being a vassal... France supports the status quo in Taiwan, the one-China policy and the search for a peaceful solution to the situation," he said sharply at a press conference in Amsterdam.

In recent years, cooperation with India has intensified, which is looking for an alternative to Moscow in France, in particular in the field of military-technical cooperation and energy.

For decades, Russia has been the largest importer of arms to India, but now New Delhi is actively engaged in the diversification of supplies. According to SIPRI, in 2021, among the largest importers of weapons to India, the Russian Federation remained in first place, the share of imports of which is forty–one percent, the share of France is eighteen percent, the share of Israel is thirteen percent, but in the coming years the situation may change dramatically.

Another important area of Indian-French cooperation is green energy, especially solar and wind. Cooperation between the parties in the field of civil nuclear energy is very promising.

And India and France are also united by the geopolitical concept of "strategic autonomy", which in this case usually concerns the United States: Paris and New Delhi seek to pursue a foreign policy course independent of the United States as much as possible.