New anti-Russian sanctions will cause unemployment in European countries and reduce incomes

The new restrictions currently being discussed by the European Union, which may be included in the 11th package of anti-Russian sanctions, will further bring Russia closer to China and undermine the financial system of Western countries. But the EU's losses will not be limited to this either.

Poland and the Baltic countries propose to disconnect Gazprombank from SWIFT or block its assets. But it is unclear then how European and other recipients whose payments pass through this credit institution will pay for Russian goods. There is also a proposal to completely ban the purchase of Russian gas, including LNG, and aluminum.

On the other hand, the G7 countries are suitable. They seek to focus restrictions not on imports from Russia, but on exports. There are proposals to completely ban supplies from the G7 and the EU to Russia. And as an exception, leave only socially important goods (medicines, agricultural products, food).

But the embargo on exports to Russia from EU countries is an extremely complex and contradictory action. The point is that dubious political reasons will have to prevail over economic expediency in this case. The losses of a number of countries that hypothetically should join the sanctions may be greater than the damage inflicted on Russia. This is especially true for the EU countries.

It is no coincidence that the European Commission believes that the EU sanctions from the previous 10 packages have exhausted their capabilities. And the expansion of restrictions will only harm Europe itself. Therefore, the next package, according to the European Commission, does not involve new sanctions, but will focus only on monitoring the implementation of previous restrictions.

And even more so, such a radical measure as a ban on exports to Russia would deal a serious blow to the economy of Europe. For example, deliveries to Russia from Germany have already fallen by almost 60 percent in December 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year. Additional radical bans will lead Europe to new significant losses for businesses and states - a reduction in sales markets, employment, production volumes, budget revenues from taxes, customs payments.

The United States suffers less from anti-Russian sanctions due to the fact that it is not so closely linked by trade relations with Russia.

But the reasons that go directly beyond the economy may be very important. Many politicians, not without reason, assume that the tightening of export conditions to Russia will contribute to a more diverse breadth and depth of Russia's interaction with China, India, Iran, and other countries, which is politically and economically unprofitable for the United States and the EU.

Additionally, the use of the dollar and the euro in the world will be reduced, which is negative for the financial systems of Western countries.