PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Challengers Stage Preview
After 7 months since Stockholm Major we are getting into yet another festival of Counter-Strike, this time we are up for one of the most competitive majors in years. There is no dominant team around like when Astralis or Navi won their majors, and there are at least 6 teams who have a good shot at winning it. But first, let's look at the Challengers Stage
Teams Breakdown
Would be safe to there are quite a few surprises in this Stage. This applies both to teams like G2, Vitality or Outsiders who failed to get to Legends straight away as well as teams like Eternal Fire and Bad News Eagles, who weren't even expected to be in the Major at all
Turkish squad surprised everyone when they managed to make it through, as their start in RMR was actually pretty cringe: they went 4-16 against Faze, won 22-20 against Dignitas (and only because of replayed round) and lost to Vitality. They were lucky enough to go 1-2 instead of 0-2 and subsequent 0-3 but then they managed to step up and beat fnatic and OG in bo3. To be fair though, none of these teams were particularly good so EF might be slightly overrated coming into the Challengers Stage
Vitality are looking very sad in general. From #3 where they were when dupreeh and magisk just joined they are now #11 and they haven't been able to get any progress or achieve anything good. Not that this performance was somehow unexpected, but it's still sad to look at. On top of that Zywoo has been massively underperforming and not playing even 1/10th of what his "best player of the year" medals suppose, although it seems like he got better in RMR
Vitality certainly could have done better but they could have also done a lot worse so let's be grateful that they are at least in the Major. They aren't really a contender for going deep in the tournament unless they get in form throughout the group stage, but they should be able to make it to Legends stage even with how bad they currently are
Forze are actually one of the few teams who don't deserve to be here and they are even luckier than Eternal Fire. The only reason they were able to qualify was the Buchholz system, and let's see what Forze had to do to qualify: 13-14 16-14 against GamerLegion (literally a tier3 team made for Pinnacle Cups only), 15-17 19-17 against OG who didn't even qualify and 0-1 2-1 against SAW (another tie3 team). Wow, what a great Major-worthy team! 0-3 or 1-3 is their best hope for the Challengers Stage, would already be surprised if they go out 2-3 or SOMEHOW qualify to Legends
Good team on paper with crazy firepower but they have been quite unstable recently due to obvious reasons. Their RMR run was pretty bad too as they struggled against BIG, Dignitas and SAW. On top of that there are rumors of YEKINDAR leaving the team after Major and that's definitely not a good sign + it will affect the team chemistry. There is a real danger for them not to go through
Definitely the highlight team of the RMR and a very impressive roster with beautiful story. Back when they were BLINK they weren't really that good, just an average tier3 team who were pretty strong on mirage. They've come a long way since then and showed that they can compete against top teams, even if sometimes they don't have enough to beat them. Really hoping to see them do well, and they might actually be able to do so with Buchholz
Pretty mediocre team who are still afloat but can't really compete against better teams. They will most likely end up going out 1-3 or 2-3, although s1ren is promising and he might step up
After the disaster in ESL Pro League and the opening match in RMR against Anonymo, G2 managed to wake up and go 3-1 although not without a struggle. They clearly have some problems in finding their game, and Aleksib isn't really a good fit for them. They do however have crazy firepower and securing Legends spot shouldn't be a problem for them unless we see something like their EPL run
ENCE have what it takes to qualify to Legends and even upset some of the better teams, but they have been very unstable recently. After having good ESL Pro League run they didn't really show anything special, their wins in RMR were a given considering the competition and in BLAST it was more of their opponents not being ready to win, besides that performance against Astralis was terrible. ENCE should either go 3-1 3-2 or 2-3, though to be honest they might even go for a crazy run and 3-0 but it will all depend on individual performance
Although there are some issues with certain players, Astralis are getting better day by day and Farlig turned out to be a great fit. Really hoping to see them get to the Legends stage and maybe even go far into playoffs, and with the teams that are here + opening match against IHC Astralis will have good chances to qualify
Imperial presence in this Major is more of a legacy thing for players like FalleN, fer and fnx rather than trying to win it, and as cool as it would be to see them go far in this Major it's close to impossible. They are not strong enough even to compete against lower tier teams but they might get a win or two before going out of the Major. Still great to see papa FalleN back
Ok, this one is just a massive no. They shouldn't really be here in the first place and NA RMR was almost a tournament of their life, but we've all seen what they are capable of against real EU teams earlier in EPL. They also couldn't even get a map from MIBR and just in general they have a huge problem with the roster. Junior is a terrible awper and his biggest achievement was leaving Triumph for a bigger paycheck, JT and FaNg can't keep up with tier1 cs and Grim is too unstable. Really don't see them qualifying to the Legends stage, and even 2 wins might be too hard for them
Liquid seem to have worked a lot on fixing their mistakes and they are visibly improving ever since ESL Pro League. There are still more things to work on but the general trend is promising and with players like NAF, EliGE and oSee they are looking to go far. It would be a real disappointment if they fail to qualify to Legends stage, though their way there will most likely be bumpy and they'll go 3-1 or 3-2
Another Brazilian squad, these guys are much more awkward than Imperial though. They had quite a lucky journey in RMR as they went 16-13 against 9z and 25-23 against paiN, then we saw them struggling hard against Cruzeiro (who?) and losing to Imperial in IEM Dallas qualifier. MIBR have no business whatsoever in this Major and even if they get some wins they will inevitably get eliminated
9z were impressive in RMR and went beyond anyone's expectations but realistically they don't have enough skill to make it further. They should be more than happy with this result though even if it will be a 0-3, after all they probably didn't even expect to qualify themselves, especially after starting RMR from 0-2. Lowkey hoping to be wrong about them though and see even more crazy stuff from them, possibly even some upsets against huge favorites
Combined these 2 together because both of them just wasted a spot. Even 2-3 would be too much for these guys and while it's impressive that they were able to get here in the first place that's about everything they could dream of
Opening Matches
The opening round of matches will be bo1 just like in RMR, and we will see the stupid Buchholz system again. This will probably mean quite a few retarded results once again, but at the same times there is more hope for teams such as Bad News Eagles
Some matches here are not really worth mentioning, but let's focus on a few others:
Bad News Eagles vs Eternal Fire
The result of this match will basically determine the rest of the Major for both of them. Whoever starts 0-1 after this game will have a hard time coming back and close to 0 chances of actually passing to the Legends stage, while the winner will get a good boost and an increased chance for a fluke
On paper Bad News Eagles are undoubtedly better than Eternal Fire, but we have to keep in mind that they are both just tier3 teams after all and this is a bo1, also Eternal Fire have actually gained in form throughout the RMR despite having shit performance in the beginning, and their comeback definitely gave them more confidence. The prematch chances should be somewhere around 65/35 for BNE, of course it depends a lot on the veto but they have been playing against stronger teams in general and had solid results
G2 vs Liquid
Possibly the best match of the whole Round 1, either of them can surprise everyone both positively and negatively. While G2 might seem like an obvious winner here, Liquid actually have very good chances of pulling off the upset and actually we hope that this is exactly what will happen
There isn't much to speculate with because both teams haven't been feeling good recently, G2 with their 17-20th place in EPL and 5th in RMR are definitely not the G2 we would expect to see few months ago, while Liquid have to deal with shox and nitr0. It might get interesting if they end up on vertigo or inferno though
Vitality vs Complexity
Gonna be a determining match for Vitality. They should be able to win against Complexity with no problem but the risk of them not showing up is higher than ever. Complexity are obviously not good enough but it won't be too much about them in this matchup, basically Vitality vs Vitality
Bets on Round 1
Following the tradition, let's put some bets in advance on the opening round of matches:
Bad News Bears vs Eternal Fire
• 2% BNE -2.5 @ 2.17
Imperial vs Spirit
• 1% Spirit ML @ 1.99
G2 vs Liquid
• 2% Liquid ML @ 2.46
MIBR vs Outsiders
• 2% Outsiders -2.5 @ 1.729
Forze vs Renegades
• 1% Forze -3.5 @ 1.847
ENCE vs 9z
• 1% 9z +6.5 @ 1.806
2% combo Vitality ML + BNE ML @ 2.25
2% combo Vitality ML + Outsiders ML + Forze ML @ 2.65
1% combo BNE ML + Liqiud ML + Spirit ML @ 8.84
Also, although this is an article about the Challengers Stage only the bets for outright winner for Major lock at the same time so we decided to include it here as well
1% Heroic outright @ 9.36
1% FURIA outright @ 17.56
1% BIG outright @ 24.59
1% Liquid outright @ 39.79