Discord Session by Well (15.01.2024)
Due to the lack of sessions from me in the last ~2 months, let me explain the format for newcomers:
My sessions differ significantly from those conducted by others here. I analyze short-term and long-term market sentiment, sharing my expectations. This is done to help you understand my actions rather than blindly follow without grasping market goals or expectations.
An important note: everything I say is my opinion. If you disagree, it's perfectly fine, and we can discuss it at the end of the session during the Q&A.
I believe we started this year on a positive note. The approval of the Spot BTC ETF is a significant event. Despite short-term hype, in the long term, it is highly underrated.
Why do I think the ETF approval is underrated?
The entire crypto market revolves around short-term or, at most, medium-term expectations of both regular users and large capital players (Hedge Funds, Market Makers, and others influencing pricing). This is because the market is currently highly speculative, with about 98% of tokens being more about marketing than anything else. Unfortunately, for me, crypto is not utilized as it could be, despite the added benefits like volatility and good growth in various coins.
Looking at the ETF situation, it was an awaited event. The market has entered a phase where institutions can buy assets, and the interest of institutional companies in Bitcoin is notable. Despite the sell-off, the ETF as an instrument can bring new liquidity and long-term support to the market.
What are my personal expectations?
I believe we've gone through a full bear market. The next 2 years look extremely interesting. With institutions entering the market and crypto regulation strengthening, considering all nuances, this is likely the last bull market where one can make a substantial profit. As for shorter to medium-term expectations, three main issues may impact the market:
1) The situation unfolding in Yemen.
2) The so-called "X" disease, gaining more attention in the West.
3) USDT, a potential risk for the crypto market. USDT's dominance over other stablecoins has significantly increased, and any FUD towards USDT could shake the market.
Considering my resources and discussions with various individuals and project founders, it seems the last shake-out is an opportunity for many to enter the market at a lower point. Large players aim to buy assets cheaper to prevent the market from turning into a "scam." While the goal is not to crash the market, a drop to the $30-40k range is possible.
We've initiated a substantial portfolio sell-off. In January-February, we'll likely see some potential altcoin market growth. I don't particularly believe Bitcoin will reach even $50k; I would rather look at fluctuations in the range of $40-45k. Regarding ETH, I still expect $2800-3200. Of course, if ETH grows, so will altcoins. Following this, in March (before the Bitcoin halving), we anticipate the typical downward trend, often the last local zone for position accumulation.
There's a significant distinction between the start and a genuine "bull-bull" market. A true bull market, where people can't capture profits due to rapid growth, lasts only 2-3 months. Anything before/after is the emergence of a bull, with corrections, marking the end of the bull market. Two to three months of a full bull market is the peak of euphoria, with everything growing, and new liquidity pouring in. After this period, positive sentiment persists, but stop-loss and break-even become your best friends again.
Most likely, this "Bull-Bull" will only occur in 2025. Until 2025, growth will be gradual, involving new product development, marketing campaigns, and crypto trends.
An interesting point discussed with a group member, Equaz: Except for the top 10-20 coins, the crypto market is very manipulative, not only in terms of pricing but also in forcing certain coins on you. When there's a trend around specific assets, you often forget about others.
• If more specifics and numbers, what do I expect?
As mentioned earlier, in January-February, I expect altcoin market growth, not expecting much from Bitcoin. At most, I anticipate Ethereum reaching $2800-3200. After that, in March-April, potential decline is likely, forming a local bottom for all assets. Following this, in mid-2024, I expect gradual upward movement, with clear updates in Bitcoin and other assets. Let's not forget that at the end of this year, there will be U.S. presidential elections, which could bring volatility to all financial markets. Honestly, I find it challenging to believe in Bitcoin at $200k, or even $150k in this cycle. Truly legendary highs might only be set many years from now. All assets I plan to accumulate in the long term won't be fixed at a 20-50% profit; I'll start locking in assets when Bitcoin reaches the $70-80k range to secure a pleasant profit.
• Regarding trends I'm watching?
At this stage, it's testnets. Lately, this sector has performed exceptionally well, rekindling interest in L1, L2 solutions. The second direction is Artificial Intelligence (AI), a trend observed for quite some time. AI quickly diverted attention from the metaverse. The third direction is some GameFi model, possibly integrating with NFTs, perhaps related to Axie Infinity or Stepn. Games supported by blockchain in various forms are likely to be created. The fourth direction is decentralized wallets. I still expect a token release from MetaMask. Considering Binance distancing from TrustWallet, which they do for a reason, TrustWallet is announcing many news pieces, such as crypto cards and solutions for fee payments. With potential regulation strengthening, the entire DeFi sector will grow and evolve. The fifth direction is "X," some new sector that will develop during a full bull market. A sector everyone will talk about, and there will be demand for something new that doesn't exist in the market yet.
Personally, my advice is to go in-depth in the crypto scene now, set goals for the next two years, truly focus, and simply earn the capital that potentially can change your life.
Regarding motivation and everything else? It's essential to understand that motivation won't always be there. All you need is to set your goals and maintain discipline.