STONKS Discord Session
An interesting situation is starting to unfold; we have finally moved down from the point where we began to realise our portfolios. As I mentioned before, I expect one last relatively small drop before any significant growth.
What can we expect in the near future?
In principle, we are still in a bear market. However, if you look at it from another perspective, we are almost at the peak of all the possible negative news that could affect the crypto market, and most of the issues have already started to resolve. The only thing that could significantly impact the market is a "Black Swan" event (the closure of a major exchange or something similar). Since this is impossible to predict, we are not considering this scenario. We have already gone through stages of extreme negativity from regulators, extreme negativity regarding stablecoins, extreme FUD about Tether, and any negativity from the media. If you look at it this way, the peak of fear has passed. Now, we are left with something scarier than the peak of fear, which is consolidation with very low volumes. Currently, trading volumes are the lowest they have been in the last 5 years. This market condition can continue for months. The longer it lasts, the fewer players remain in the market. The only interesting thing happening in the market right now is the pump of shitcoins, done so that market makers can make some profit.
Why do I plan to accumulate mostly Bitcoin and Ethereum right now?
It's clear that you should buy altcoins, but there are stages in the market when it's best to hold coins and when not to. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the first to show growth. Once Bitcoin can break through a strong "point" (currently around $40,000), we can start looking towards a "bull market." Until then, we are still in a "bear market." Since Bitcoin and Ethereum are market giants, it makes sense to accumulate them. These are the products that people constantly use, and they have long-term potential. While Bitcoin and Ethereum achieve about a 60% increase, altcoins will either bring you less profit or the same amount, but the risk with altcoins will be higher.
During a "bull market," never open short positions, and during a "bear market," first look for entry points for shorting.
When people start entering the market again, listening to bloggers, the media, and buying altcoins, that's when we will shift our focus from Bitcoin and Ethereum to altcoins. Because we can first profit from the rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can protect ourselves from any downturns since the majority of the capital will come from profits, not our initial deposit.
As I've already mentioned, the $20,000 to $30,000 range for Bitcoin is the ideal sector for me to enter the market. In case of any unforeseen situations, I plan to keep 30-45% of my funds in cash. In the event of any unexpected situations, I'll have the opportunity to buy the dip and/or average down my entry point. However, honestly, I don't expect any negatives in the $20,000 to $30,000 range.
Because market makers like round numbers, we will start aggressively taking profits before reaching $40,000 for Bitcoin, as prices don't always reach round values.
The situation here looks quite straightforward. The only altcoins I plan to buy now are $TWT (the coin has not yet shown its main growth; we are also waiting for a hype in non-custodial wallets). I'm also interested in the Arbitrum project. I wouldn't be surprised if the main growth of the coin starts when the first testnets are released. Among other altcoins, Chainlink ($LINK) also looks like it will be the coin that sets the "bull run" for most other altcoins. Importantly, I don't plan to hold Arbitrum or LINK in my long-term portfolio. I plan to wait for specific price targets, secure positions, and move on. My targets for these two coins are to sell Arbitrum during the testnet hype wave.
For Chainlink, wait for a breakout from the channel, wait for a 2-4x increase, and gradually (using a ladder strategy) take profits. After that, move on.
I understand that this market stage is boring and uninteresting. However, this market stage is the lowest-risk entry point, especially for those who are not constantly in the market. The most important thing is consistency; there's always something to do in the crypto market. By working consistently, you pave the way for future profits.
- On one hand, I understand that a "bull market" is near, but on the other hand, the global economy looks bleak. If there are bank crashes again, Bitcoin will become a safe asset for some people, while others will start selling it. What should we expect?
n my view, we will see growth until we reach $40,000. After that, due to both manipulation and the actions of major players, it would make sense to bring us to $39,000, then drop the market to $32,000 thanks to some FUD or negativity. After that, any negativity before the final rise of Bitcoin will only be a boost for the correction of the upward trend. And when the economic situation is in terrible condition, the turnaround of Bitcoin will begin, marking the start of a new bear market.