Technical analysis or Hope? Pt. 2
BlackRock has offered Bitcoin investing to big institutional clients. What a news, isn't it? From August 11. But was there any impact on the Market? And that's a big one, there were more small positive news all around the board. But price seems struggling.
Does it remind you something? Actually the Title says - Part 2. So... Im waiting another dump actually. Lets check it out.
Stock market within last last 2 months finally started to bounce up, S&P500 made 18% up. Will it break descending parallel channel and continue to go higher?
The answer is simple - price is moving to take the liquidity, the closest one is at 4300 on a Daily chart, them 4550 at Weekly chart. Basically these can be reversal points.
Nas100 and US30 on Daily don't look great too. Nas100 has broken parallel channel, US30 is lagging behind, but both are just following S&P500
I drew pink lines of liquidity areas - the areas where may happen reversals down.
And as we know Crypto market follows Stock one this may lead to another leg down.
DXY on Monthly chart is at Parallel channel above the middle line, the possibility of retesting it before the continuation of ascending movement is high. Target is around 116-120.
Rising DXY may lead to a drop of Stocks and Crypto.
Total MarcetCap on a Daily chart is below Resistance area of previous consolidation (POC) at 1.22T usd and about to breaking down the local trend line(orange one).
USDT+USDC Dominance on a Weekly Log chart is looking like it about to drop more till around the middle of the channel and bounce then up, till new ATH(with the crash of Crypto market).
Ona daily chart i still assume it goes more down below the previous low to area around 9.30% where is a middle line of big ascending 1W channel on a picture above.
All that may lead to continuation of movement up in Crypto for now with the following dramatic drop later.
Estimated leveraged ratio was getting lower within last few das but overall still high.
The leveraged positions supposed to be liquidated with the move I'm waiting for.
That's a Funding rates within last 30 days. As we see most of them positive and high - which means majority of traders are in Longs now.
That's why I'm waiting a drop.
Another interesting things which I left are charts with BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and VIX(Index volatility of S&P500). Let's check them out.
Here is a BLX(Full history BTC chart) vs VIX.
You can see an interesting correlation, when VIX at the bottom points and going up - BTC is dropping.
Some even saying: "If the VIX is high, it's time to buy. When the VIX is low, look out below!" And that's working.
And as you see Vix is low now that's another reason for a drop of BTC, even not from current price, as there was no reversal on Vix yet.
The last, but not least - BLX/BDI.
Baltic dry index measures changes in the cost of transporting various raw materials, such as coal and steel. Many consider a rising or contracting index to be a leading indicator of future economic growth.
If you check the chart BDI is is a huge parallel channel and every time it touches the area around low line and bounces up - Crypto rising(and all economy as well).
Now BDI is at support level, I still considering it will go down even through some local correction up. And by the time it reached low line and bounces up Crypto and Stock markets will be so low that they will simply fly back.
Resume: Remember Good news are for Sells, Bad news are for Buys. The price is always going on the way of biggest Liquidity. Now its area around 30k - a big psychological level. Normal people don't look at charts - they know numbers. Most will buy followed FOMO if price at BTC will consolidate above 30k, but isn't it the idea to make a Bull trap and shave them out and go lower?