August 22, 2022

BTC: BUY or DIE

The new week of August started with a nice drop on S&P500 right after liquidity(1) was taken. Would be nice to see retest of previous consolidation at around 3800-3900, before some significant move up.

S&P500 1D

NAS100 and US300 are following.

S&P500 dropped 4.5% from August 16 level. At the same time correlation between US Stocks and Crypto was changing: the leader now is ETH, who follows more accurately rather than BTC.

Correlation Stocks vs Crypto

Considering that closing the Gap at ETH1! at ~ 1287-1333 usd doesn't look unreal, which is just 18% away. Another Gap was formed previous weekend ~ 1629-1679 usd. Normally within a week price closing one Gap.

ETH1! 1D

TOTAL Marketcap after Weekly candle closed doesn't give much hope. There is a nice Engulfing pattern on candles. Stoch indicator is in Overbought area and RSI is bouncing down from descending trend line.

TOTAL 1W

On a daily chart TOTAL is below a trendline, most likely pullback up may happen before the continuation of downside movement. Support/resistance areas are working perfectly at indexes and as you see it respects the support area(green rectangle).

At the same time many might hear that most accurate indicator - Hash Ribbons just printed a Buy signal on a Daily chart. On a history the max pullback down from that indicator was ~8%, which is around 19000 usd.

Hash Ribbons 1D

On a weekly chart there was no confirmation yet.

The question is how big possibility that BTC will rise?

The answer is at BTC.D chart.

BTC.D 1w

That's a weekly chart of Bitcoin dominance and it's right near the lowest area of long-lasting range(since 10 May 2021). There is 2 scenarios what may happen if it reverses now and start to go higher:

1) BTC will pull liquidity from Alts(especially from ETH) and goes up, some might suffer but most will follow with the delay

2) BTC significantly drops down

What do you think? Option 1 or 2? The answer is in article.