Technical analysis or Hope?

Do you remember how many good news was from March to May 2021? Nowadays are pretty similar situation, but still so small positive impact on BTC price. Here is some of them:

US stocks don't show any strength too. S&P500 monthly candle closed pretty bearish, at the same time Stoch is in oversold area already and TD sequential indicator shows that May's candle is the 4th one, which means if that descending trend will not be strong enough reversal may happen, as it was on a history.

Weekly chart has lower Highs and lower Lows and got Divergence. In a short time frame S&P500 may bounce up for a bit. The descending trend reversal will happen, when the price crosses green line.

NAS100 on a monthly chart is looking promising. The only idea - RSI should stay above 50 level, otherwise price may fell down like in 2000 for 71%.

On a weekly chart is forming divergence same as on S&P500 chart. As BTC is highly correlated with NAS100 I would keep an eye on it. Nowadays is the highest correlation.

The another metric to look at is LTH-SOPR. LTH-SOPR 7D MA is at its lowest level since May 2020. A value of 1 is a very important support level. If it will be broken, this will mean that LTH(long term) holders are selling BTC at a loss.
On a higher timeframe, in the past, when we went lower value “1” there was a mass capitulation.

BTCUSDT monthly candle close doesn't look good. There is absorption of previous candle on the chart. the only good sign - Volume is lower.

On a weekly chart with decreasing price, the Volume is increasing - the sign of upcoming reversal. At the same time there is a huge POC level at 39k usd, if the price consolidate above it, can expect some ascending movement.

Also there is a correlation of USDT.D(USDT dominance) with BTC. It's a daily chart, if it goes up - BTC will struggle. if goes down - BTC can bounce up.

BTCUSDT daily chart is in between 2 trend lines, break down and consolidation will show the direction of next move.

CME Gap from this weekend was closed already.

12 Hours BTC.D chart showing some hope for Alts to bounce up, if it goes down, while BTC will be in consolidation or slowly rising up.

Summary: The Idea is to wait for now what trend line on BTC chart will be broken, and if price stays there - it will point the direction of all crypto market.

PS. Checking US Stocks as well for breakdown down, BTC will follow.