Euro expected to recover to 1.1440
At the end of the week, the major currencies closed up. The dollar fell against the Japanese yen by 1.16%, the Canadian dollar - by 0.73%, the British pound - by 0.63%, the euro - by 0.48%, the franc - by 0.48%, the Australian dollar - by 0 .42%, the New Zealand dollar - by 0.40%.
On Friday, January 14, at the end of the day, the euro fell by 0.40% to 1.1409. The single currency started the day with growth. Fixing on long positions began from the European session. There was no news behind the fall. Most likely, sales intensified at the end of the week before the long weekend, as well as rising yields on 10-year bonds. American statistics did not influence the market.
The volume of industrial production in December amounted to -0.1% m/m against the forecast of +0.3% and the previous value of +0.7% (revised from +0.5%). Production in the manufacturing sector decreased -0.3% m/m against the forecast of +0.3%.
Total retail sales in December amounted to -1.9% m/m against the forecast of -0.1% and +0.2% in November (revised from +0.3%). Retail sales on an annualized basis amounted to 17.0% against the previous figure of 18.24%.
Scheduled statistics (GMT +3):
USA - Martin Luther King Day - Holiday
Trades opened with a slight increase in the dollar. At the time of writing, major currencies show mixed dynamics. The euro/dollar pair recovered to 1.1420. The growth of quotes is supported by the increase in cross-pairs with the euro.
Considering that on Friday trading on the foreign exchange market ended with a decrease, today we can see the weakening of the dollar in the thin market as part of a correction to 1.1440 (balance line Lb).
Monday is a public holiday in the US. The debt market is closed. The growth of the euro/dollar pair is constrained by the decline in futures on the SP500.
Summary: on Friday, the euro closed lower against the US dollar. Fixing could have started because of the long weekend in the US. American statistics were ignored. On Monday, trading opened calmly. The euro/dollar pair is trading in a slight plus. On the thin market, supported by euro crosses, the price is expected to recover to the balance line of 1.1440.