June 9, 2021
Level-2 Course Plan
Main Topics
- Three Fund Portfolio.
- All-Wether Portfolio.
- Bonds: government, long-term, corporate, long-term, junk, muni.
- Yield curve, inverted yield curve.
- Retirement plans: IRA, Roth, 401k, Roth Conversion, (Mega) Backdoor.
- Business plans: SEP, solo-401k.
- For kids: UTMA, 529, HSA.
- Tax strategies: tax harvesting, tax-exempt bonds.
- Gift/estate tax-exempt, step-up in basis.
- Margin trading, margin call, short sale.
- Hedge-funds, short squeeze, pump&dump.
- Options: call, put.
- Leveraged/Inverse ETFs.
- Life Insurance: Term Life, WL, IUL, VUL.
- Real estate: depreciation, 1031, step-up in basis, 250/500.
- SDIRA vs. solo-401k, UBIT.
- Crypto: taxes.
- Inflation, CPI, M2, CAPE-ratio.
- Factor model.
Day 1
Three Fund Portfolio
- US Stocks : International Stocks : Bonds
- 50:30:20 means: US Stocks=50%, International Stocks=30%, Bonds=20%
- Vanguard ETF Three Fund Portfolio: VTI, VXUS, BND (or BNDW)
- US Stocks vs. T-bonds vs. 60:40
- US Stocks vs. US Bonds vs. 50:50 (2010-2021)
- US Stocks vs. Developed Markets vs. Emerging Markets
- 50:50:0 vs 30:30:40 vs 10:10:80
- 100:0 vs 0:100 vs 50:50
- Large Blend = 56% Large Growth + 44% Large Value
- US Total Stocks = 48% Large Growth + 38% Large Value + 13% Small Blend
- PortfolioVisualizer: Aggressive Growth vs 60:40:2 vs VT vs S&P-500
- PortfolioVisualizer: Aggressive Growth vs 60:40 vs S&P-500
All-Weather Portfolio
- PortfolioVisualizer: All-Weather Portfolio vs. 50:50 vs. VSMGX
- PortfolioVisualizer: All-Weather Portfolio vs 50:50 vs 75:25
- PortfolioVisualizer: All-Weather Portfolio vs. 40% Stocks:60% Interm Treasury vs 40:60
- PortfolioVisualizer: US Total Bonds vs. Junk Bonds vs. Long Treasury Bonds
Day 2
Bonds
- By issuer: Government, Corporate, Municipal
- By credit: investment-grade and junk (high-yield)
- By term: short (1-5 years), mid (7-15 years), long (20-30 years)
- ABS (asset-based securities), MBS (mortgage-based securities)
- The coupon (dividends) is usually fixed.
- dividend-yield = coupon / bond-price
- bond-price goes up => dividend-yield goes down
- US Total Bond ETFs: BND, AGG
- International Bond ETF: BNDX
- World Total Bond: BNDW (= 50% BND + 50% BNDX)
- Muni ETFs: MUNI, VTEB
- Muni bond dividends might be tax-exempt (depends on the state).
- Банк выдаёт ссуды, откуда такая ликвидность?
- Облигации (Bonds)
- Низкая Учётная Ставка = Высокие Долги
- Cash vs. US Total Bond vs. Long Treasury
Account Types
- main accounts: taxable, IRA, Roth, 401k, HSA.
- Taxable accounts: individual or joint.
- Retirement accounts: IRA/Roth, Rollover IRA, 401k, Roth 401k.
- Educational accounts (for kids): 529, ESA, kid IRA/Roth, UTMA.
- Health account: HSA.
- Business accounts (contractors, 1099): SEP, SIMPLE, solo-401k.
Tax rules in a taxable account
- Taxable events on taxable account: realized gains (sale with profit), receiving dividends, DRIP.
- Hold period <= 1 year => short-term capital gains, taxed as ordinary income.
- Hold period > 1 year => long-term capital gains, taxed on lower tax brackets.
- Qualified dividends => taxed as long-term capital gains.
- Unqualified dividends => taxed as ordinary income.
- Налоговый инвестиционный счет (taxable brokerage account)
Tax rules in tax-benefit accounts
- Taxable events on retirement accounts: withdraw from IRA, 401k, SEP, SIMPLE, unqualified withdraw from Roth IRA, Roth 401k, HSA, 529, ESA.
- Pre-tax contributions: IRA, Rollover, HSA, 401k, SEP, SIMPLE.
- After-tax contributions: Roth, Roth 401k, 529, ESA.
- Retirement accounts are subject to constraints and annual limits on contributions!
IRA vs. 401k
- 401k allows loans up to 50% of the balance (not more than $50,000).
- 401k contribution limits are much higher: $19,500 vs. $6,000.
- Catch ups (50+ y.o) in 401k is much higher: $6,000 vs. $1,000.
- 401k may offer matching, profit sharing, Mega Backdoor.
- Overall limit for contributions in 401k: $57,000 + catch up!
- 401k does not have limits on the income or MAGI (IRA and Roth have).
- RMD: IRA, 401k, (inactive) Roth 401k.
- Mega Backdoor in 401k vs. Backdoor in IRA.
- Rollover: IRA -> IRA, 401k -> IRA, Roth 401k -> Roth.
- Reverse Rollover: IRA -> 401k.
- Not allowed: Roth -> Roth 401k.
- Roth Conversion: IRA -> Roth, 401k -> Roth 401k, 401k -> Roth — taxable event!
- 401k vs. IRA
- IRA Rollover
Business Retirement Plans
- SEP IRA, solo-401k, SIMPLE IRA
- SEP IRA — pre-tax IRA for small businesses/self-employed, matching for most W-2 employees
Contribution: 20-25% net-income/payroll but limited by $58,000 a year. - solo-401k — for family businesses (no W-2 employees allowed, except for spouses and partners).
Contributions: company (20-25% net-income/payroll) + employee.
The maximums, catch-ups, Roth, loans are the same as for regular 401k.
Tax Strategies
- Long-term capital gains, report capital losses.
- Tax-Gains Harvesting
- Tax-Loss Harvesting, wash-sale
- Muni
- UTMA: kiddie tax, Tax-Gains Harvesting
- Roth IRA/401k, Roth Conversion, Roth Ladder
- Backdoor Conversion to Roth, Mega Backdoor
- Gift/estate-tax exempt, step-up in basis
Roth Conversion
- traditional IRA, traditional 401k -> Roth IRA, Roth 401k
- pre-tax money converted to Roth is taxable ordinary income.
- When to convert:
expecting a higher tax bracket in the future,
higher income,
higher taxes,
moving to an expensive state (with high state income tax),
when the market falls,
expecting high RMDs. - Roth or not to Roth
- IRA and Roth
- IRA Rollover
Backdoor Conversion to Roth
- Two-steps:
1. Contribute after-tax to IRA
2. Roth Conversion - Pitfalls:
1. IRA Aggregation rule.
2. Pro-rata rule. - File the form 8606:
1. After-tax contributions to IRA (nondeductible).
2. Roth Conversions.
3. Roth Distributions.
Mega Backdoor
Day 3
Margin Account
- Assets in your account are collateral
- Take a loan from your brokerage firm to buy more assets
- Leverage trades, but you pay commissions (margin rates)
- Margin Call may happen if collateral assets declined in value!
Short Sale
- Long position: buy security hoping it will increase in value
- Short position: sell security borrowed from a broker, hoping it will decrease in value
- If the security price goes up, the short-position starts losing
- The risk of short-sale is unlimited!
- The gains of short-sale are limited by the security price.
- Short-sale is also used in hedging against security/market decline.
- Hedge-Funds
- Short Squeeze
- Участники торгов. Часть 1. Биржи, Маркетмейкеры
Derivatives
Options
- Call-Options: Covered-Call or Uncovered (Naked)
- Put-Options: Put or Protective-Put
- Option contract:
type (Put, Call),
ticker (security symbol),
expiration,
strike price,
option price,
contract size: 100. - Опционы Call, Put, Covered-Call, Protective Put
- a security may decline => buy Put (like a short sell, but the risk is limited)
- protect a security against a decline in value => buy Protective-Put (insurance)
- a security may increase in value => buy Call (use leverage)
- willing to sell a security for a higher price or earn income => write a Covered-Call (strike price > current price)
- willing to buy a security for a lower price or earn income => write a Put (strike price < current price)
Call-Option
- premium = option-price ∙ contract-size
- purchase-price = strike-price ∙ contract-size
- purchase-cost-basis = purchase-price + premium + trading-commissions
- trade-value = trade-price ∙ contract-size
- realized-capital-gains = trade-value - purchase-cost-basis.
Call-Option Example
- Call-Option Contract
ticker: SPY.
type: Call.
expiration: 3 months.
the option price: $1.
the contract size: 100 shares.
the strike price: $200. - the premium (contract cost): $1∙100 = $100
- the purchase cost basis: $200∙100 + $100 = $20,100
- assume share price: $210, which is greater than the strike price ($200)
- exercise the option contract => buy 100 shares x $200/share
- later the price increase to $220/share
- sale 100 shares for $220/share
- trade value: $220∙100 = $22,000
- realized capital gains: $22,000 - $20,100 = $1,900
Protective Put-Option
- premium = option-price ∙ contract-size
- cost-basis = share-cost-basis ∙ contract-size
- sale-cost-basis = share-cost-basis + premium + trading-commissions
- trade-value = exercise-price ∙ contract-size
- realized-capital-gains = trade-value - sale-cost-basis
Leveraged/Inverse ETFs
- PortfolioVisualizer: Nasdaq vs 2x Nasdaq vs 3x Nasdaq
- PortfolioVisualizer: Nasdaq vs Inverse Nasdaq
- -10%, +10%, -10%, +10% vs 3x Leveraged
- -10%, +11.11% vs 3x Leveraged
- Инвестирование в фонды скучно и долго? Финансовый рычаг для вас!
Day 4
Term Life
- Term: for 10-40 years.
- Primerica (MLM-company): "Buy Term Invest the rest".
- Example: Term Life @ 20 years
$150/month: $1.8K/y or $36K for 20y.
Invested $150/m: 2000-2019 => commissions: $106K.
Invest the rest: $45K/y: 2000-2019 => $2.6M.
Death Benefit $2.6M => income from investment: 4% ∙ $2.6M = $104K / year.
Cash-Value Life
- Whole Life (WL), Index Universal Life (IUL), Variable Universal Life (VUL).
- WL — least risky, VUL — most risky.
- "Tax-free" growth and withdrawals.
- It could be used for anything.
- It does not have an impact on financial aid for college.
- Like "Super Roth" or "Tax-Free Retirement Account" :-)
- 1035 Exchange: if it is insured, one policy could be exchanged for another
- Net Amount of Risk (NAR): Death Benefit (DB) - Cash Value.
- Higher NAR => higher commissions.
- Goal: NAR ≈ 0 or Cash Value ≈ DB.
- "Plan B" policy: DB initially is very low and increases while Cash Value grows.
- tax-free withdrawals: take loans against Cash Value
- Loans may be repaid (or not).
- On the death, the policy pays DB - Outstanding Loans - Commissions.
- 90:10 — means: 90% of the first contribution goes to Cash Value, while only 10% goes to commissions.
- Commissions and interest is paid from Cash Value.
- Insured is older, higher cost of $1000 DB becomes.
- The policy may lapse if Cash Value = 0.
- Higher chances for policy lapsing: VUL and IUL.
- Зоопарк накопительных страховок
- The Super Roth
Whole Life
- Что за продукт?
- Урок арифметики с Whole Life
- Cash Value is indexed by 2-3% / year.
- Dividends paid: 1-2% / year.
- Expected performance: 4-5% / year.
- It could be used as an emergency fund or a conservative part of a portfolio.
- Infinite Banking Concept: take loans for business/purchasing real-estate properties / implementing Fix and Flip.
IUL
- Cash Value follows a stock market index (e.g., S&P-500)
- The growth is caped: min-cap=0%, max-cap=13%.
- Implemented with options and other derivatives.
- Dividends are not paid.
- Expected performance: 6% / year.
- Less risky investment.
VUL
- Cash Value invested in a portfolio of mutual funds.
- The riskiest investment
- It can be used as a tax shelter.
Real Estate
- $250K/$500K sales tax-exempt: 2 years from 5 last years the property has been used as a primary residence.
- Investment property: Depreciation + 1031 Exchange + Step-up in Basis = tax-free.
- Estate-tax exempt: $11.7M.
- Богатые тоже "плачут"!
Depreciation
- rental property may be depreciated for 27.5 years
- depreciation: 3.6%/y (= 100%/27.5y).
- Example:
home price: $1M;
improvements: $100K;
adjusted cost basis = home price + adjustment;
adjusted cost basis: $1.1M;
reported losses: $39.6K/y (= 3.6% ∙ adjusted cost basis).
In 10 years, the depreciation: $39.6K/y ∙ 10y = $396K;
cost basis = $1.1M - $396K = $704K;
sale price = $1.5M;
depreciation recapture: $396K;
capital gains = sale price - cost basis - depreciation recapture;
capital gains = $1.5M - $704K - $396K = $400K;
depreciation recapture is taxed as ordinary income capped by 25%;
capital gains usually taxed as long term capital gains.
1031 Exchange
- Several properties could be replaced with some other properties (with a greater value).
- No taxes on sale => the gains are added to the cost basis of the new objects.
- 45 days to find candidates for replacement;
- extra 135 days to complete the trade.
Step-up in Basis
- On the estate transfer, the cost basis jumps to the market fair value
- heirs may sell the assets (real estate/investments) immediately and will not owe capital gains tax!
SDIRA
- Self-Directed Accounts: IRA, Roth, SEP, solo-401k, HSA, ESA.
- SDIRA is allowed to invest in alternative assets: crypto, precious metals (gold), private equities, businesses, tax liens/deeds, notes (mortgage, promissory).
- SDIRA is not allowed to invest in Life Insurance, collectibles.
- UBIT (Unrelated Business Income Tax): 35%.
- UDFI (Unrelated Business Income Tax) — part of UBIT.
- SDIRA is subject to UBIT when invested in businesses
- SDIRA is subject to UDFI when invested in real estate with leverage (loans).
- SDIRA is allowed non-recursive loans only.
- The collateral is only real estate (not IRA, no personal responsibilities).
- solo-401k is not subject to UBIT (UDFI).
Day 5
- Test X1 questions solutions
- Roth strategies, Roth vs. IRA, Roth vs. taxable
- Pum&Dump, Short-Sale, Short-Squeeze
- Crypto, tax treatment: currency vs. property, crypto taxation
Day 6
- Inflation
- Bonds, Yield Curve, Inverted Yield Curve.
- CPI, M1, M2
- S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio
- Value-investing
Factor model
- Market-factor: Stocks - T-Bills
- Size-factor: Large-cap - Small-cap
- Value-factor: Value - Growth
- PortfolioVisualizer: T-Bills vs. US Stocks vs. Small-cap
- PortfolioVisualizer: T-Bills vs. US Stocks vs. Small-cap
Extras
Tests
Recordings
- Day 1: Three Fund Portfolio, All-Weather Portfolio
- Day 2: Tax Rules and Strategies, Roth, 401k, SEP, solo-401k, Backdoor, Tax Harvesting
- Day 3: Options, Margin Trading, Short-Sale, Short-Squeeze, Leveraged/Inverse ETFs
- Day 4: Term Life and Cash-Value Life, Real Estate, SDIRA and solo-401k
- Day 5: Test solutions, Roth strategies, Pum&Dump, Short-Sale, Short-Squeeze, Crypto
- Day 6: Factor-Investing, Bonds, Yield Curve, Inflation, CAPE-Ratio, M1/M2, CPI