IEM Katowice 2022 Preview
First "real" tier1 tournament in 2022, prepare yourself for almost 2 weeks of great Counter-Strike!
It's divided into 2 stages, 16 teams in Play-in that fight for 8 spots in the main event and 8 more teams in 2nd stage.
Play-in
Play-in stage is a fast double elimination bracket with BO1 for opening games and BO3 for everything else. Due to this format we should see as few surprises as possible, but we might still see a few unexpected teams qualify - mainly because some of the teams here just haven't played in ages.
Teams to follow
Before getting to the opening matches overview, let's point out some of the teams to watch in this stage:
Wisla Krakow started the 2022 season with impressive results - in just a month they went from #53 team to #31, and you can clearly see their progress. They went from struggling in overtime and 16-14 scores against Tricked, 2-16 against Endpoint and even struggling against EC Kyiv to destroying same Tricked, MOUZ NXT and even FURIA. I really hope they will keep improving, and Katowice is the best opportunity for them to play with better teams. They even have a decent chance of winning BO1 against NIP, but even if they don't they will face loser of CPH/Fnatic which is more than winnable
Ever since their incredible run in PGL Stockholm Major, CPH haven't been able to find that form again. In fact, they ended 2021 with rather terrible results (especially compared to their peak) and the new season hasn't been so great either. Katowice might be the deciding tournament for the team, as if they don't show anything good and go back to tier3 events there will probably be some changes to the roster
When this Fnatic just got together it actually seemed quite promising, however now they can hardly be considered a tier2 team. mezii is heavily underperforming and smooya can't do it all alone, especially when KRIMZ and ALEX also have a bad day. Really curious to see how they prepared for this event although I don't expect them to go far
The Brazilians haven't had any official match since early December, soon to be 2.5 months. However, when they did play it wasn't actually too bad at all. GODSENT got to 3rd spot in EPL Conference and managed to show some interesting results in IEM Winter, upsetting Heroic in BO1 and having pretty close games against NIP and VirtusPro. While I don't expect much from them here in Katowice, they might just be the best BR team right now until proven otherwise
Another team that was inactive for over 2 months and they lost malta, who will be substituted by Liazz. It's obviously a huge improvement and Liazz is thousands times better than malta, but he hasn't played officials for 4 months now and I doubt this replacement would be enough to get Renegades back to winning anyway. Still interesting how fat they can go
Probably the craziest roster out of many present here, and maybe the biggest dark horse. ENCE had some minor success in early stage of PGL Stockholm Major but it followed by 0-3 in the main stage and 15-16th place, and 0-2 in IEM Winter with 13-16th place. Clearly they needed some change and doto indeed deserved to be replaced but why in the hell would they pick Maden instead? The guy is very unstable and he's coming from tier3 with rather bad results but I guess we'll see how it plays out
Opening matches
Disclaimer: The following is just a projection for possible winners and not the actual betting recommendations. We will skip most of the matches to see what different teams are capable of on Day 1
NIP vs Wisla Krakow Although on paper this is something like 65/35 for NIP, the BO1 format and the recent hype could be a serious advantage for Wisla Krakow. It's better to skip this if you want to avoid unnecessary risk but Wisla have a good chance
Copenhagen Flames vs Fnatic
Both teams suck pretty hard, but Fnatic are still better. The odds on this are a fucking joke though - 1.5 on Fnatic when it should be closer to 1.7-1.8. 100% skip
GODSENT vs MOUZ
MOUZ can't even be considered better than their academy team anymore and now they are playing with NBK and JDC (lol). Would be ridiculous if they actually won even despite the fact that GODSENT were inactive for so long
Sprout vs Faze
Faze are missing ropz but jks is not the worst option they could find as a replacement and Sprout are still Sprout. This could be a close game but I doubt Sprout have what it takes to upset, 100% skip anyway
OG vs Renegades
Nothing special here but dead odds are obviously not worth it, even for a -handicap. 100% skip
ENCE vs Entropiq
Surprisingly good odds on Entropiq and it might actually be worth going on them, especially if they get a good map. Have no reason to believe in ENCE with Maden, although BO1 could be a real clownfiesta
Astralis vs MIBR
While both teams are terrible and Astralis already beat MIBR 16-9 2 weeks ago, this is a huge chance for Brazil. Astralis won't go far with this team anyway, so why even try
BIG vs Movistar Riders
Not a bigfan of BIG but Movistar are just next level bad. Maybe they were saving strats in ESL, but I don't think 3-16 vs VP and 0-2 vs 9z can justify that. BIG on the other hand have been playing like a solid top10 team, however this is a 100% skip
If we assume the above projection, then
Upper quarter-finals:
Wisla Krakow vs Fnatic
GODSENT vs Faze
OG vs Entropiq
BIG vs MIBR
Lower Round 1:
NIP vs CPH
MOUZ vs Sprout
Renegades vs ENCE
Movistar Riders vs Astralis
Let's see how close this projection will turn out to be, but remember: this isn't a betting recommendation. We might go against the mentioned choices depending on the circumstances even if we get some of these matchups correct.
Real bets
Now, let's get on with a few bets on the opening round. The bets themselves are already on the server in the pinned messages, here's the explanations:
This match is probably going to be the most interesting one. NIP are still playing with phzy as dev1ce is on leave, and Wisla Krakow are a great upcoming team.
The BO1 format is a perfect opportunity for Wisla to pull off an upset here, although it won't be any easy for them. While they are on a rise in tier3 scene, playing against a team like NIP is totally different. Ninjas, despite not having dev1ce, have way more experience (especially on LANs), meanwhile Wisla barely have any.
That being said, NIP's recent form hasn't been too great. They had 2 weeks to prepare and fix all the mistakes but I'm still skeptical about them and Wisla Krakow should be capable of taking at least 11 rounds even if they lose. But if they do indeed take 11 rounds that would leave them only 5 rounds away from winning the map and the chances are pretty good for x3 odds
A rather questionable match, and as we've said before it would be better to skip it completely - especially considering GODSENT being inactive for 2+ months - but it's just crazy value.
MOUZ have been playing like pure trash lately and on top of that they will play with NBK and JDC for this game. Combine that with terrible dexter and below average frozen and you will have yourself a team that can barely be considered tier2.
Of course we can't say much about GODSENT for obvious reasons, but last time they played it wasn't too bad at all, and just on paper they are clearly better than MOUZ. The only question here is what they prepared in the 2 months of inactivity
I'm usually not really a supporter for Entropiq but this matchup leaves me no other choice. Maybe this is just bias against Maden but I genuinely don't see that bot fit in well with ENCE, no matter how much time they have for practice.
On top of that, the rest of ENCE haven't been able doing any great either. Even hades who was supposed to carry them 1v9 seemed to have some issues last time ENCE played.
Entropiq had some shaky results too but at least they are more stable and have already played in the new season. Despite the BO1 factor I will be very surprised to see ENCE win
Last time these two met, Astralis won 16-9. However, you can't really call them a good team and while Xyp9X, gla1ve and Lucky are on the team it will be impossible for them to achieve anything in the long run.
Meanwhile MIBR are a fired up team who want to keep improving and although they haven't been able to prove themselves yet, they definitely have a much bigger potential.
In the end this is basically a 50/50. MIBR could play bad and lose 9-16 or even worse again, or Astralis could step up and have a game of their life. But if they both play as expected, MIBR should be able to get 11 rounds without a problem and even contest for the victory
Main Stage
Main stage of Katowice has 2 groups with 4 known teams and 4 teams that qualify from Play-in in each. It would be a pointless waste of time to speculate on the qualified teams before they actually qualify because anything can happen in the upcoming days, so let's just focus on the teams that are already there
Group A
Vitality
Vitality looked decent in BLAST, but there is still something that doesn't let me believe in their Danish part. They do have a pretty good chance in this group though, if they pass first match they will play against Heroic/TBD and if it's Heroic Vitality should be much better. Either way, I don't really see them going past the semi-finals, if they even get there at all
Heroic
0 expectations for this team, they might even lose to whoever qualifies here. Heroic ended 2021 on a terrible note and the only match they had in 2022 was 1-2 loss to K23. I wouldn't actually be surprised if they fail to get to playoffs this time, especially given how stacked the tournament is
VirtusPro
VP had some struggles in ESL but they still won it and it was a good warmup for the Katowice. Just because of that they are in a much better position than Gambit and Heroic, although in terms of individual performance there are still many questions to them. IF they keep on gaining the form throughout the tournament then they might even go quite far into playoffs, but if they play on same level as they did in ESL it will be a problem
Gambit
#2 team of 2021 is still one of the bigger favorites due to recency bias, but there are actually some concerns about this team. Although they won FunSpark without a single loss, there were some problems in their matches, especially in the first 2 games where they were struggling against Complexity with JT who had 200 ping, and Entropiq. They should definitely get to playoffs, and it will probably be between them and Vitality for the spot in semi-finals, unless a qualifying team surprises everyone. Gambit could even win the whole thing if Navi play same way they did in BLAST.
Group B
Natus Vincere
NAVI played like absolute garbage in BLAST, and although they still qualified that performance is not even remotely acceptable for #1 team who won major and IGS just few months ago. If Blad3 and Boombl4 don't work on the team chemistry they might fail here yet again, because this time the competition is a lot stronger and s1mple 1v9 won't be enough. On the bright side, they got a very easy group. If they don't fail against the qualified team they will have to play vs FURIA/TBD winner which should guarantee them a free spot in upper final and there they will most likely face G2 for the spot in semi-finals
FURIA
They definitely used the time before ESL Challenger to practice and they did improve a lot compared to their first game against Wisla Krakow, but it's still not enough for a tournament of such calibre. Even if they pass first match they will most likely fail to get into playoffs, as the only team who is potentially worse than them here is Liquid
Liquid
Extremely unstable team who, as we've seen, keeps losing unloseable. nitr0 an shox are clearly not good enough, and the other 3 guys are not good enough to compensate that either. NAF and EliGe must each 30 bomb in order for Liquid to actually win something, and that's obviously very unlikely. Won't even expect them in the playoffs, unless the rest of the teams just decide to stop playing in Katowice
G2
G2 did surprisingly good in the first few games with m0NESY. Right now they are one of the favorites for winning the whole thing and they have a great chance to reach Grand Final, especially considering the current form of Navi. If NiKo, huNter and m0NESY all play good they might even dominate the tournament and win it undefeated. However, I have some doubts about the rookie. While he had some highlights in BLAST, the level of competition here is much higher and I wouldn't be so sure that he could keep it up. This is also a LAN tournament, and the last time he was on LAN for WePlay Academy League he had 200bpm against MOUZ NXT, and he was completely outplayed by torszi. A lot of G2's success will actually depend on how m0NESY manages to handle the LAN environment - I guess we'll see how it goes