Monoammonium phosphate: The export volume is greatly increased, Can domestic sales be boosted?
I. Status of export of monoammonium phosphate
According to customs statistics, in July 2019, China's export volume of monoammonium phosphate was about 318,300 tons. The total export volume in January-July was about 1.7 million tons, an increase of about 461,900 tons, an increase of about 37.31%.
In July 2019, China exported 554 million tons of Brazil's MAP, accounting for about 32% of total exports; compared with 431,300 tons in the same period of 2018, it increased by about 127,700 tons, an increase of 28.45%, accounting for about 34.90% of total exports. Although the volume of exports to Brazil increased in July, its total share fell by 2.9%.
From January to June 2019, Brazil imported about 1.4 million tons of MAP, an increase of nearly 500,000 tons from 2018. Sources of supply: 1, Morocco 407,000 tons, accounting for 28%; 2, Russia 737,000 tons, accounting for 26%; 3, the United States 306,000 tons, accounting for 21%; 4, Saudi Arabia 236,000 tons, accounting for 16%. It can be seen that Morocco's MAP has the biggest impact on China's exports, because the transportation distance is close (in the case of 50,000 tons of ships, the cost of Morocco to Brazil is about 18.5 US dollars / ton; while China is up to about 10 US dollars / ton. Nearby), the cost is low, and the pressure of Chinese supply export competition will continue to increase.
2. Overview of domestic supply and demand of monoammonium phosphate
According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic monoammonium phosphate was 54.35% as of last Friday, which was about 6.65% lower than that of the same period last year. The Hubei plant is operating normally, but it is reported that some of the daily output is reduced by half; the operating rate of the southwestern plant is low, of which the 55 powder plant of Guizhou Dachang is shut down, and the other plant plans to stop production of 60 powder to industrial grade; another plant in Sichuan is still only Open a production line.
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The downstream compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate was 48.7%. Among them, the northeast region is still in the off-season, and there is no obvious fluctuation in construction. Some factories in Central China and East China have started to improve compared with last week. Due to the influence of National Day military parade and environmental inspection, the manufacturers are actively producing pre-shipment orders and the weather. Some enterprises have resumed production in the high-tower facilities of the cooling industry. At present, the domestic construction is at a high level, and it is difficult to start construction in the short term.
At present, the domestic single-exchange volume of monoammonium phosphate market continues to be meager, and the downstream compound fertilizer large-scale enterprises have sufficient raw materials to stock up, and a small amount of out-of-stocks is insufficient to affect the market. In addition, due to the pressurization of finished products, it is reported that individual compound fertilizer enterprises have suspended raw materials. The one-ammonium factory shipped it; although the start-up of small-scale compound fertilizers was gradually improved, but the amount of raw materials used with the mining, the local traders have sufficient supply in their hands, and the price is not high, 55 powder is ex-factory price 1900-1950 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year fell 240 yuan / ton.
3. Summary and forecast
Although the export volume increased year-on-year, the average monthly price of monoammonium phosphate exports fell by about US$30/ton in July; and the MAP price in Brazil fell another US$5/ton to US$335-340/ton CFR, and if the export price in September Still weak, Chinese suppliers will transfer most of their products to the domestic winter storage market, and domestic supply will continue to increase. However, as far as the domestic autumn market is concerned, even if the downstream compound fertilizer is available again, the supply of goods is sufficient. Therefore, there may be a wave of supply flow improvement in September, but the price is difficult to rise. In the short term, there are still 10-30. Yuan/ton drop.