Brent Update

On Tuesday, April 19, Brent crude fell 4.59% to $107.45 per barrel. The fall in oil prices could strengthen the message about the deterioration of the forecast for global GDP growth from the IMF. In 2022, the economy is expected to grow to 3.6% compared to the January estimate of 4.4%, for 2023 the forecast has been revised to 3.6% from 3.8%. The deterioration in forecasts is due to Russia's military special operation in Ukraine and high inflation in the world.

According to the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute, US oil inventories fell by 4.496 million barrels last week (+2.5 million barrels were expected). Inventories of gasoline increased by 2.933 million barrels (expected -1.0 million). Distillate inventories decreased by 1.652 million barrels (-0.8 million was expected).

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy will publish its weekly data on stocks of oil and petroleum products. According to forecasts, the report for the week of April 9-15 will indicate an increase in oil inventories by 2.2 million barrels, as well as a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories by 1.2 million and 1 million barrels.

At auction in Asia, Brent oil costs $108 per barrel. Buyers failed to gain a foothold above the technical level of $111.50. Because of this, they began to close long positions. Now you have to retreat to $101 or storm the $111.50 level again. Also, the expensive dollar and the growth in the yield of 10-year US bonds prevent the rise in price of oil. As of today, the trading range is $106.50 – 110.00.