June 15, 2022

Oil price remains sideways above $120

On Tuesday, June 14, according to the results of trading, Brent crude oil fell by 0.98%, to $121.04 per barrel. The price rose to $125.12 after the publication of the OPEC forecast. OPEC's monthly report says that oil demand in 2022 will increase by 3.36 million barrels per day compared to last year, to 100.29 million bpd. When the consumption estimate in the second quarter of 2022 was lowered by 250 thousand b/d, to 98.44 million b/d. Accordingly, for the 3rd and 4th quarters, the demand forecast was increased by 110,000 bpd and by 130,000 bpd.

According to the data provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API), oil reserves increased by 0.736 million barrels over the past week (the forecast was -1.3 million). Inventories of gasoline fell by 2.159 million barrels (forecast was +1.1 million). Distillate inventories rose by 0.234 million barrels (+0.3 million was forecast).

On Wednesday, June 15, at auction in Asia, Brent oil costs more than $120 per barrel. The focus of market participants is the FOMC meeting. On Tuesday, the dollar index hit a new high. Expensive dollar puts pressure on the oil market, while buyers are determined to move higher.

The official data of the US Department of Energy will be released at the American session. It is expected that oil inventories over the past week fell by 1.2 million barrels, while gasoline - increased by 841 thousand barrels. Before the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, J. Powell, I expect consolidation in the price range of $120-125.