June 17, 2022

Oil: technical conditions met to continue the rally

On Thursday, June 16, according to the results of the day, Brent crude oil rose by 0.2% to $119.08 per barrel. The price has stabilized around $120. The continuation of the upward movement is constrained by the strengthening of the dollar and expectations of further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. Rate futures point to a 75bp rate hike in July. with a probability of 85%.

The ban on imports from Russia to the EU only accelerates the redistribution of trade in oil and petroleum products. The replacement of European buyers with Asian ones is going well.

The current correction is local. I still expect a resumption of growth towards the peaks of the year, given the prospect of stronger demand in the US and Asia. Before the weekend, it's not bad to gain a foothold in the $124-125 per barrel zone. After it, buyers will be able to take a course to the level of $130.