Russia wants to open a second front with the help of Belarus. Only a white flag on Ukrainian lands will save the Belarusians from shame and death

Yuri Maznychenko 20 March 2022

"Wake up, something's burning," - my wife says with undisguised concern. Although I did not hear any obvious signs of alarm, I could still smell something burning in the air. Already by reflex, I reach to look at the time on the mobile screen, though subconsciously I understand - somewhere between four and five in the morning.

If Russian shells often land in Kyiv during a month or so of the war, it is often when the human body is at its most vulnerable and most in need of rest. Terrifying the civilians with "liberation gifts" at night has already become the trademark of the aggressors, who have finally switched from an active offensive against the capital to artillery and missile strikes.

The city was shrouded in a bluish pall of smoke. While at normal times a large panorama of the city opens up from our window, this time the view of the area is a couple of hundred meters. Already in the morning, the news reported that because of the powerful smog, Ki briefly topped the rating of the world's most polluted cities, 33 times the norm. All because of fires in the suburbs caused by the occupiers' bombardment and the lack of wind. It is good that by lunchtime we already had a chance to ventilate the flat and breathe with a full breath.

The Russian advance towards Kyiv and the intention to encircle the capital had finally slipped away, and in the last days the troops of the state defence forces - the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations - managed to push back the enemy to the north on a front stretching 70 kilometres. It is noteworthy that during counterattacks our army finds partially broken down and abandoned trophy equipment - people, who have taken up arms, do not sit back and help the military with successful guerrilla operations.

The military adventure of Russian President Vladimir Putin has already outpaced the human losses of the two wars in Chechnya and cost the aggressors 14,700 killed and three times as many wounded soldiers. The number of losses in this way approaches the losses of Soviet troops in Afghanistan during the 10 years of the invasion of this country.

476 destroyed and captured tanks (most of the T-72 and T-80 tanks) are more than what Russia has produced or upgraded from tracked vehicles in the past 30 years. The aggressor country also lost about 50 per cent of its new and modernized aircraft.

The number of deserters among the 200 thousand Russian military groups that launched the February 24 invasion of Ukraine was at least 5-7 thousand. And taking into account the deserters who did not want to follow the criminal orders of the commanders and shoot civilians, this figure increased to 15-20 thousand people. Such a conclusion can be drawn by analyzing statistical data from previous Russian campaigns in Chechnya, Ossetia and Georgia.

According to official data alone, at least 562 Russian servicemen are currently being held captive in the country, who never encountered "neo-Nazi drug addicts" and did not want to be "cannon fodder" in the undeclared war of Putin's regime. According to many of those who surrendered, the Ukrainians treat them even better than their own, they recognize the crimes of Russian propaganda and urge their fellow countrymen not to get their hands dirty with blood in this war.

Most of those who are still participating in this war on the part of the occupiers are either afraid of reprisals for not following orders, or are blinded by the state's promises of a prosperous life after the successful completion of the so-called "special operation." And Ukrainian soldiers show humanity only to those who lay down their arms voluntarily. Others are free to choose what is better - a bullet in the head or a heart attack from the sugar shortage in their country, whose economy is bursting at the seams due to massive international sanctions.

Having failed the blitzkrieg and made the whole world laugh with losses unacceptable for the status of the second world army, Russia decided to switch from the phase of active combat operations to the tactics of war of attrition. It involves maintaining tension in the conflict zones through artillery strikes and the active bombing of populated areas to bring them to a state of humanitarian disaster, intimidation and demoralization of the civilian population.

For Ukraine, the continuation of this war means the need to redistribute human resources. Our people understand that not only fighting or volunteering for a long time will be increasingly difficult. As much as the human brain resists constructive wartime activities, the Ukrainian economy needs to get back on track and narrow the gap between production and consumption.

In the encircled and occupied territories, the Russian army actually creates conditions for the mass extinction of civilians by not allowing Ukrainian and international humanitarian convoys with food, medicines, and basic necessities to reach the people. The cynical genocide of Volnovakha, Trostyanets, Mariupol, and other nearly completely destroyed Ukrainian towns is a direct violation by Russia of the Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and the European Convention on Human Rights.

But it seems that for the sake of the political ambitions of a perennial dictator, Russia has completely forgotten about human rights, which are the main value of the entire civilized world. And irrevocably transformed itself into a Nazi state. Just as Adolf Hitler was greeted by a crowd of thousands at Berlin's 1936 Olympic Stadium, so the Russians waved their flags stubbornly and fanatically during Putin's speech, while their artillery, aircraft, and ships razed Mariupol to the ground and bombed a shelter surrounded by huge "CHILDREN" signs on the asphalt.

Russia will have to answer for its inhuman crimes, but right now the Putin regime is trying to influence the course of the war by opening a second front and holding neighbouring Belarus responsible for its crimes to the Ukrainian people. The regime of another long-time dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, has been indirectly involved in the war all these weeks, providing the rear of the Russian army and the deployment of aircraft, artillery and missile launchers striking on Ukrainian soil. But now, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Belarus, having drawn its troops to the border, is ready to join the war on Russia's side.

The entry of Belarus into the war, of course, will complicate the already harsh everyday life of Ukraine's defenders. But above all, it will provide Belarusians with an unprecedented chance to bring Lukashenko's 28-year totalitarian regime to an end. In 2020, our northern neighbours learned an invaluable lesson that not even multi-million peaceful demonstrations can make this ruler resign. The Revolution of Unfulfilled Hopes is how the protests of the Belarusians against the massive fraudulent results of the last election went down in history. Unlike the Ukrainians, the Belarusians did not take to the barricades, accepting the weight of the police sticks and the fate of the victim.

Unlike the Russians, who are zombified by propaganda, the Belarusians do not want to go to war with the Ukrainians. Only a quarter of the population supports the incumbent president and believes the TV fairy tales about how the State Security Committee foiled the Ukrainian operation to attack Belarus. 75% of the Belarusians do not want war, but the traditional civic passivity may play a cruel joke on them.

During 25 days of the war, the Ukrainian army inflicted so much damage to the Russian armed forces that it would have become irreparable for the Belarusian army. To the gloomy prospects of the Belarusian troops on Ukrainian soil should be added the fact that they, unlike Ukrainians, have no eight years of experience in active combat operations in the fight for the occupied territories.

A declaration of war on Ukraine by Belarus, if the moustachioed dictator decides to do so, would automatically make the newly arrived occupiers the target of the entire Ukrainian population, who are defending their homeland with weapons. After all, while martial law is in effect in Ukraine, the destruction of enemy armed forces is legally allowed. No apologies for those who risk coming with a sword to our lands.

This war is certainly not necessary for Belarus, which somewhere deep in its heart wants to escape from the clutches of the Lukashenko regime. But Belarusians, it seems, will not be able to become silent witnesses to the historical battle between the civilized future and the barbaric past, which is unfolding on Ukrainian soil.

This is a historic chance for Belarus to finally perform a heroic act for the sake of the future of its nation and world peace. Only a white flag raised by them on Ukrainian lands and a joint struggle against Russian-Belarusian totalitarianism will save Belarusian soldiers from disgrace and death. Or active resistance to the dictatorship in their own country.

Here, in Ukraine, hundreds of their fellow countrymen volunteered to join the noble cause of fighting the aggressor. The future fate of all Belarusians and their future descendants is now decided on the outskirts of Kyiv and the southern Ukrainian steppes.